Even though New Brunswick’s population is growing at a record pace, economic development consultant David Campbell says the province still needs more immigration, more jobs and more ambition.
The unprecedented arrival of immigrants and a surge of residents moving from other provinces pushed New Brunswick’s population to a record 780,021 in September.
That increase of 6,134 between April and September was the strongest growth since 1975.
While that is good news, Campbell said the province can’t lose sight of the fact that the overall workforce in New Brunswick shrank again this year.
Campbell says New Brunswick can’t rest on its ‘modest population growth’ when, according to Statistics Canada, job vacancies continue to rise. (davidcampbell.com)
If you go back to the 1990s, we only had about 1,500 people on average retiring,” Campbell, the former chief economist with the New Brunswick Jobs Board, told Information Morning Moncton. “Now we’re up to almost 6,000.”
Until New Brunswick finds a way to replace those 6,000 retirees and can attract enough younger workers to fill vacant jobs and allow for future growth, the province will continue to be among the “have-nots.”
“If you don’t have labour, it’s like an engine without oil … and so it kind of seizes up and you’re not able to grow your economy.”
Campbell said New Brunswick has to keep its population gains in perspective. He explained that the province has passed Prince Edward Island in terms of how much equalization is required from the federal government to help pay for public services.
“New Brunswick now requires more equalization on a per capita basis than any other province,” he said.
Retirees must work longer
Campbell said part of solution is to encourage New Brunswickers over the age of 55 to continue working longer.
“Maybe they can be convinced to stay in the workforce on a part-time basis or a seasonal basis to do work — but more on their own terms now that they’ve retired or semi-retired. I think it’s very pivotal these next few years.”
The other part of the equation is to do a better job of matching newcomers with the jobs they want and are qualified to do.
Campbell said there is still room for improvement when it comes to ensuring people “have opportunity.”
“If you need taxi drivers go find people that have the skills and interest to be taxi drivers and don’t bring in PhDs because if they’re working as taxi drivers it’s not a stable situation.”
Province could use more ambition
As one of the authors of Moncton’s immigration strategy, Campbell believes setting “aggressive” targets is part of the success the city has experienced in the first nine months of 2019.
Greater Moncton, Campbell said, is on pace to surpass its goal of attracting 1,900 immigrants this year.
“The whole community is getting together and developing action items and initiatives to make sure that as many of those newcomers as possible can stay and thrive in our community.”
Campbell hopes the province will challenge itself and set higher expectations.
Campbell points out that New Brunswick has the weakest economic growth of any province since the recession in 2008, except Newfoundland and Labrador. (davidcampbell.com)
“Saskatchewan is expecting to grow their workforce by 100,000 between now and 2030. That’s net growth. We’re expecting ours to grow by 3,200. And they’re not much larger than us.”
Saskatchewan is projecting the growth based on its oil and gas industry, agriculture and other natural resources.
“They have a very ambitious plan and I’d like to see a little more ambition here in New Brunswick as well.”
David Campbell is an economic development consultant based in Moncton. 10:03
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
