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Population growth not enough to fuel economy, says consultant – CBC.ca

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Even though New Brunswick’s population is growing at a record pace, economic development consultant David Campbell says the province still needs more immigration, more jobs and more ambition.

The unprecedented arrival of immigrants and a surge of residents moving from other provinces pushed New Brunswick’s population to a record 780,021 in September.

That increase of 6,134 between April and September was the strongest growth since 1975.

While that is good news, Campbell said the province can’t lose sight of the fact that the overall workforce in New Brunswick shrank again this year.

Campbell says New Brunswick can’t rest on its ‘modest population growth’ when, according to Statistics Canada, job vacancies continue to rise. (davidcampbell.com)

If you go back to the 1990s, we only had about 1,500 people on average retiring,” Campbell, the former chief economist with the New Brunswick Jobs Board, told Information Morning Moncton. “Now we’re up to almost 6,000.”

Until New Brunswick finds a way to replace those 6,000 retirees and can attract enough younger workers to fill vacant jobs and allow for future growth, the province will continue to be among the “have-nots.”

“If you don’t have labour, it’s like an engine without oil … and so it kind of seizes up and you’re not able to grow your economy.”

Campbell said New Brunswick has to keep its population gains in perspective. He explained that the province has passed Prince Edward Island in terms of how much equalization is required from the federal government to help pay for public services.

“New Brunswick now requires more equalization on a per capita basis than any other province,” he said.

Retirees must work longer

Campbell said part of solution is to encourage New Brunswickers over the age of 55 to continue working longer.

“Maybe they can be convinced to stay in the workforce on a part-time basis or a seasonal basis to do work — but more on their own terms now that they’ve retired or semi-retired. I think it’s very pivotal these next few years.” 

The other part of the equation is to do a better job of matching newcomers with the jobs they want and are qualified to do.

Campbell said there is still room for improvement when it comes to ensuring people “have opportunity.”

“If you need taxi drivers go find people that have the skills and interest to be taxi drivers and don’t bring in PhDs because if they’re working as taxi drivers it’s not a stable situation.”

Province could use more ambition

As one of the authors of Moncton’s immigration strategy, Campbell believes setting “aggressive” targets is part of the success the city has experienced in the first nine months of 2019.

Greater Moncton, Campbell said, is on pace to surpass its goal of attracting 1,900 immigrants this year.

“The whole community is getting together and developing action items and initiatives to make sure that as many of those newcomers as possible can stay and thrive in our community.”

Campbell hopes the province will challenge itself and set higher expectations.

Campbell points out that New Brunswick has the weakest economic growth of any province since the recession in 2008, except Newfoundland and Labrador. (davidcampbell.com)

“Saskatchewan is expecting to grow their workforce by 100,000 between now and 2030. That’s net growth. We’re expecting ours to grow by 3,200. And they’re not much larger than us.”

Saskatchewan is projecting the growth based on its oil and gas industry, agriculture and other natural resources.

“They have a very ambitious plan and I’d like to see a little more ambition here in New Brunswick as well.”

David Campbell is an economic development consultant based in Moncton. 10:03

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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