Real eState

Posthaste: Brace for more pain in commercial real estate as a mountain of debt comes due – Regina Leader Post

Published

7 months ago

February 15, 2024

Harry Miller

Market fundamentals of office properties are deteriorating fast

Market fundamentals in office real estate are deteriorating fast. Photo by National Post

The rapid rise in interest rates has been hard on commercial real estate, especially the office sector, already staggering under the blows of the pandemic.

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Now a new threat looms as hundreds of billions of dollars in loans reaches maturity over the next few years, says a new report from TD Economics.

Make no mistake, this is not just the United States’ problem. Troubles in the U.S. CRE market that hit lenders in recent weeks such as New York Community Bancorp have spread to Japan and Europe, raising fears about broader contagion.

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Shares in German lender Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG fell to a record low today after it was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings over its high exposure to the U.S. commercial property market. The German company has described the current turmoil as the “greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis.”

An estimated US$540 billion in commercial real estate loans in the United States will come due this year and another US$535 billion next, says the report by Toronto Dominion economist Admir Kolaj.

Meanwhile, market fundamentals are deteriorating fast, with offices the most vulnerable sector.

Office properties have been struggling since the pandemic ignited the work-from-home movement. Even though employers are increasingly pushing to get their workers back to the office, remote work days still remain high at 30 per cent, far above the 5 to 7 per cent before the pandemic, said Kolaj.

Companies might not get rid of their offices entirely, but they are downsizing when leases expire. CoStar estimates that office tenants gave back about 65 million square feet of space last year.

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Office vacancy rates are rising, rents are stalled and the expected economic slowdown and drop in hiring in the United States will only deepen the slump, said Kolaj.

“It appears that the deck is stacked against office fundamentals for the time being, with the office vacancy rate likely to continue trending higher this year, and rent growth to dip into negative territory once again, something that is sure to weigh on net operating income,” he said.

Commercial-property prices are down 21 per cent from a peak reached in early 2022, Bloomberg reports, with office prices falling 35 per cent.

The TD report cites research that says 44 per cent of office loans appear to be in negative equity, where the current property value is less than the loan balance.

With property values down and interest rates higher, many owners whose loans mature will need to come up with more capital to maintain an adequate loan-to-value ratio, said Kolaj. But finding that money won’t be easy or cheap.

The alternative is selling in a soft market or handing the keys to the lender, he said.

“Together with property values that have retreated from their pandemic highs, and a large amount of loans coming up for maturity in a higher interest rates environment, these elements suggests that we should brace for more distress in the CRE space ahead,” Kolaj said.

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Property owners will get some relief when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, likely by mid-year.

“Still, it remains to be seen to what extent this would limit the fallout, or if the pullback in rates will be ‘too little, too late’,” the report said.

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They call them the Magnificent Seven. This handful of stocks — Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp, and Tesla Inc — dominate the U.S. market to a degree that hasn’t been seen since the 1930s. Together their market cap is bigger than the value of any stock market in the world, except the United States, says Deutsche Bank Research. Microsoft and Apple on their own have market caps on par with Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.

The big question is how long will their reign last? Their concentration rivals the “Nifty Fifty” in the late 1960s when investors drove the valuations of blue-chip stocks higher and higher until the bear market of 1973 ended that party.

Deutsche’s second chart shows us what happened to market high flyers over the past 60 years.

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Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson will make a critical minerals funding announcement at the Canada-UK Industrial Decarbonization Forum in London, England
Artificial Intelligence experts will speak on “Charting Canada’s AI Future: How to Build a Resilient Framework for Investment, Adoption, and Economic Prosperity” at the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto
Today’s Data: Canadian housing starts for January, factory sales for December, U.S. retail sales
Earnings: Canadian Tire Corp Ltd, Cenovus Energy Inc, Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd, Iamgold Corp, MTY Food Group

Get all of today’s top breaking stories as they happen with the Financial Post’s live news blog, highlighting the business headlines you need to know at a glance.

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“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.” Famed investor Bob Farrell’s Rule No. 9 has never been more relevant given the unprecedented optimism priced in across many assets, particularly U.S. equities and high-yield credit. Market strategist Bhawana Chhabra digs through the data to find out which of them are priced to move. Read more in FP Investing

Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.

McLister on Mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Read them here

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.

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Real eState

Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

Published

3 days ago

September 11, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Real eState

Montreal home sales, prices rise in August: real estate board

Published

1 week ago

September 6, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.

The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.

The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.

The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.

QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.

Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

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Real eState

Canada’s Best Cities for Renters in 2024: A Comprehensive Analysis

Published

2 months ago

July 24, 2024

Harry Miller

In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.

Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:

St. John’s, NL

St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.

Sherbrooke, QC

Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.

Québec City, QC

Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.

Trois-Rivières, QC

Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.

Saguenay, QC

Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.

Granby, QC

Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.

Fredericton, NB

Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.

Saint John, NB

Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.

Saint-Hyacinthe, QC

Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.

Lévis, QC

Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.

This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.

Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.

Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.

For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.

While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.