Population is growing faster than the economy can handle, says National
Canada is caught in a “population trap” for the first time in modern history and needs to limit immigration to escape it, say economists with the National Bank of Canada.
A population trap, according to Oxford dictionary, is when the population is growing so fast that all available savings are needed to maintain the existing capital–labour ratio, making any increase in living standards impossible.
National Bank’s report joins the growing chorus of concern that the influx of newcomers over the past two years, many of whom are temporary workers or students, is too much for the economy to handle. Others caution there could be economic repercussions if Ottawa cuts off the flow too quickly.
Canada’s population grew by 1.2 million in 2023, a “staggering” amount when you consider that the next biggest surge was when Newfoundland joined the nation in 1949, says the report by National Bank economists Stéfane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme.
From a global perspective Canada’s population growth of 3.2 per cent last year was five times higher than the average of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations.
“We currently lack the infrastructure and capital stock in this country to adequately absorb current population growth and improve our standard of living,” said the economists.
No where is this strain more evident than in housing, they say.
National says the shortfall has reached a record of only one housing start for every 4.2 people entering the working-age population. The historical average is 1.8.
Government programs are underway to address this, but to meet demand and reduce housing inflation, Canada would need to double its housing construction capacity to about 700,000 starts a year, “an unattainable goal,” according to the economists.
“More worrisome is the fact that the decline is not simply due to a lack of housing infrastructure,” they said.
Excessive population growth is also impeding economic well-being, they argue. A fact they say is underscored by real gross domestic product growth per capita stagnating for six years in a row.
Capital stock, the physical and financial resources used to create value in an economy, has failed to keep up with population growth. Private non-residential capital stock has been falling for seven years, National says, and is now is at the same level as in 2012, while it is at a record high in the United States.
According to National calculations, capital stock per capita plummeted to about 1.5 per cent in 2023, compared with a high of almost 4.5 per cent in the 1960s.
“This means that our population is growing so fast that we do not have enough savings to stabilize our capital-labour ratio and achieve an increase in GDP per capita,” the economists said. “Simply put, Canada is in a population trap for the first time in modern history.”
If Canada is to improve its productivity, policy makers must set population targets against the constraint of our capital stock, they argue.
“At this point, we believe that our country’s annual total population growth should not exceed 300,000 to 500,000 if we are to escape the population trap.”
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Average asking rents in Canada hit a record high of $2,178 in December 2023, up 8.6 per cent from the year before. Over the past two years, rents have increased by 22 per cent or an average of $390 a month, said Urbanation in its January Rentals.ca report.
One-bedroom apartment rents increased the most, rising 12.7 per cent over the past year to reach an average of $1,932.
But British Columbia kept the distinction of Canada’s most expensive market for apartments. The average rent here was $2,500 in December, even after slipping 1.4 per cent lower in 2023. The year before B.C. apartment rents soared 18.5 per cent.
The Northern Super League has fleshed out its front office with four appointments.
Jose Maria Celestino da Costa was named vice-president and head of soccer operations while Marianne Brooks was appointed vice-president of partnerships, Kelly Shouldice as vice-president of brand and content and Joyce Sou as vice-president of finance and business operations.
The new six-team women’s pro league is set to kick off in April.
“Their unique expertise and leadership are crucial as we lay the foundation for not just a successful league in Canada, but one that stands among the top sports leagues in the world,” NSL president Christina Litz said in a statement. “By investing in top-tier talent and infrastructure, the Northern Super League is committed to creating a league that will elevate the game and set new standards for women’s professional soccer globally.”
Da Costa will oversee all on-field matters, including officiating. His resume includes stints with Estoril Praia, a men’s first-division team in Portugal, and the Portuguese Soccer Federation, where he helped develop the Portuguese women’s league.
Brooks spent a decade with Canucks Sports & Entertainment, working in “partnership sales and retention efforts” for the Vancouver Canucks, Vancouver Warriors, and Rogers Arena. Most recently, she served as senior director of account management at StellarAlgo, a software company that helps pro sports teams connect with their fans
Shouldice has worked for Corus Entertainment, the Canadian Football League, and most recently as vice-president of Content and Communications at True North Sports & Entertainment, where she managed original content as well as business and hockey communications.
Sou, who was involved in the league’s initial launch, will oversee financial planning, analysis and the league’s expansion strategy in her new role.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
MAYERTHORPE, Alta. – An emergency alert has been issued in an area west of Edmonton for two armed men.
RCMP say the men are on foot after a robbery.
They say people in the area of Mayerthorpe should not open their doors to strangers or pick up hitchhikers.
They say the suspects are dangerous and should not be approached.
One man is described as white, about 30 years-old, five feet 11 inches tall, 205 pounds with dark hair and dark eyes, who was last seen wearing a cowboy hat and black sweater.
The other man is six feet tall, about 220 pounds, with brown hair and blue eyes, wearing a black flat brim hat with red letters.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
File this column under “for what it’s worth.”
“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.
I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.
Why?
Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.
Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.
With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.
When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.
The way someone writes reveals how they think.
Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”
Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.
Why?
Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.
Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.
So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.
Two rules guide my writing:
Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.
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Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.
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