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Posthaste: Pummelled by the coronavirus crisis, global economy is already in recession – Financial Post

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Good Morning!

The global economy and many major economies in the world are already in recession, economists are now saying. Social distancing to limit the spread of the coronavirus, the crash of oil prices and financial markets have already sent the world into a contraction of which depth remains highly uncertain.

Oxford Economics says global growth is shrinking in the first quarter faster than during the global financial crisis. It has cut its growth forecast to 0% in 2020, down from 2.5%, its biggest cut to a forecast ever. It sees a contraction of 2% in the first quarter, and 0.4% decline in the second.

That view was echoed by more than three-quarters of economists based in the Americas and Europe polled by Reuters; 31 of 41 said the current global economic expansion had already ended. Their forecasts for 2020 global GDP ranged from -2.0% to +2.7%.

“There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter. The key outlook issue now is gauging the depth and the duration of the 2020 recession,” said Bruce Kasman, head of global economic research at JP Morgan.

Oxford expects world trade to contract for only the second time since the mid-1980s. Employment, hit by a collapse in activity and bankruptcies, is expected to fall by more than a percentage point in the first half, from the end of 2019. Global inflation could fall to 2.8% from 3.2% in 2019. “The impact on the wider economy is likely to be profound,” wrote Oxford economist Innes McFee.

Oxford expects oil prices to remain around US$31 in Q2, (Brent was at US$30.59 this morning). This could trigger widespread defaults in the U.S. energy sector, causing more disruption in credit markets.

Financial markets are also not expected to see any respite soon. A month ago today the S&P 500 hit its record high; at close yesterday it was down 32%. Oxford doesn’t see a bottom to the sell-off until the second quarter.

All this is the economists’ baseline scenario. The problem is the unprecedented nature of this public health crisis means it’s impossible to predict how bad it will get. Because of this, Oxford admits it does not have the high degree of confidence in its baseline forecast that it usually would. In its downside scenario, more countries suffer even worse effects from the virus and they are longer lasting, while the financial markets fallout is even greater. In this scenario the global economy would suffer a contraction of 1.3% in 2020 with severe recessions in the major economies.

“Rather than being a low probability, extreme case, to us this scenario represents a plausible alternative baseline that, if the situation continues to deteriorate at the current pace, could become our central view in the coming months,” McFee wrote.

* * *

As if investors didn’t have enough to worry about, today is quadruple witching day. This quarterly event in which investors unwind positions in futures and options contracts before their expiration has been know to cause mayhem at the best of times.

“Even in the sleepy times in the market things get weird on quadruple witching days,” Kim Forrest, chief investment officer of Bokeh Capital Partners told Bloomberg. “It’s going to be nuts. It’s icing on the icing.”

Here’s what you need to know this morning:

  • Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health, and Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health, to provide update on COVID-19 in Toronto
  • Notable Earnings: Tiffany & Co
  • Today’s Data: Canadian retail sales, U.S. existing home sales

A look at the range of forecasts from economists for Canada’s big banks for the next two years is a testimony to the uncertainty around what we can expect from the coronavirus crisis.

— Please send your news, comments and stories to pheaven@postmedia.com. — Pamela Heaven @pamheaven

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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