Real eState
Posthaste: Sales dwindle in luxury real estate market — but don’t blame a lack of buyers
People are eager to buy homes, if only there were enough listings
Luxury home sales retreated across much of Canada this past winter, but a lack of buyers isn’t to blame for the pullback and the market is expected to pick up this spring, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.
Sales of luxury real estate properties were slower in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same time last year, with Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Calgary all registering declines, says Sotheby’s latest report on the state of high-tier housing.
Toronto and Vancouver, the most expensive housing markets in Canada, bore the brunt of the slump in sales. In Toronto, sales of luxury homes priced $4 million and higher fell 64 per cent from the first quarter of 2022. Transactions of houses above $1 million also slowed, declining 57 per cent over last year. Vancouver sales of residences over $4 million were down 53 per cent year over year, and sales of dwellings above $1 million fell by 51 per cent.
Meanwhile, Calgary remains a bright spot in the market amid a growing economy that’s attracting new residents from other parts of Canada. But it too experienced slower sales when compared to the same time last year. Sales of $1-million homes fell 36 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2022. However, Sotheby’s says sales are up 223 per cent compared to the same time in 2020, which shows the underlying strength of the market.
The overall drop in home sales isn’t a sign that buyers have given up on homeownership, however. Sotheby’s blames a lack of listings for the downturn in transactions, and says people are ready and eager to get back into the market to find their dream homes.
Investors also continue to have faith in real estate, with recent research from Sotheby’s and Mustel Group showing that 60 per cent of city-dwelling Canadians believe property will outperform or line up with their other investments over the next 10 years.
That high confidence, combined with pent-up demand, bodes well for the spring housing market, the report says, providing there is enough inventory to meet buyer intentions. Sotheby’s says many sat on the sidelines this winter, in the hope of more inventory coming online in the second quarter. But listings are expected to stay muted, which will likely constrain sales.
Still, don’t expect a lack of listings amid a cohort of motivated buyers to translate into big price gains this spring. Higher interest rates that have pushed up the costs of homeownership are keeping people from bidding up prices further, Sotheby’s says. Indeed, inflation data from Statistics Canada released on April 18 shows mortgage interest costs increased 26.4 per cent last month from March 2022. That should continue to keep a lid on home prices this spring, even as the market picks up.
Inflation appears to finally be slowing, which means interest rate increases are likely off the table, at least for now, writes Kevin Carmichael.
The consumer price index increased 4.3 per cent from March 2022, Statistics Canada said on April 18. That was the smallest year-over-year increase since August 2021.
Excluding food and energy, the year-over-year increase was 4.5 per cent, down from 4.8 per cent in February. Excluding mortgage interest costs, the index increased 3.6 per cent, compared with 4.7 per cent the previous month.
Still, though headline inflation is lower to four per cent than its eight per cent peak, it might not feel like much a of a relief for many households. Find out more about what you need to know about the latest consumer price reading.
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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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