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Posthaste: This cratering GDP number has only ever been seen during a recession

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Canada’s February gross domestic product numbers were disappointing in more ways than one.

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Statistics Canada data released Tuesday showed the economy grew 0.2 per cent for the month — below analysts’ estimates of 0.3 per cent and StatsCan’s own advanced forecast of 0.4 per cent — revealing an economy that is losing steam.

However, the reading that put economists most on edge was GDP per capita.

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The closely watched measure continued to crater and is now down three per cent from its peak in September 2022, according to Matthieu Arseneau, deputy chief economist at National Bank of Canada.

“A decline of this magnitude has never been recorded outside of a recession,” Arseneau said in a note following the GDP release. He estimates first quarter annualized GDP per capita currently stands at -1.2 per cent, and at -0.3 per cent non-annualized.

GDP per capita was also on the Royal Bank of Canada‘s radar.

Weaker-than-expected GDP coupled with Statistics Canada’s forecast for flat growth in March, “leaves output for Q1 as a whole tracking (by our count) a seventh consecutive per-capita decline,” RBC economist Claire Fan said in a note.

Fan said the bank estimated GDP per capita declined 0.5 per cent in the first quarter from the fourth quarter of 2023.

GDP per capita matters because “it is an indicator of the average standard of living of the population,” Arseneau said in an email. “Higher population growth naturally leads to better economic growth.”

Not this time around.

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Economists have credited Canada’s record population increase with keeping the economy out of technical recession territory, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, on a per-person basis there has been “significant underperformance,” Arseneau said.

Some think that the economy is already in recession based on GDP per capita.

Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group, said in an interview with the Financial Post at the end of February that “when you look at things (GDP) on a per-capita basis, the Canadian economy is, for all intents and purposes, in a recession.”

Despite expected annualized growth of 2.5 per cent for the first quarter that many economists attributed to one-off events, falling GDP per capita is only one sign of a rapidly failing economy, the National Bank of Canada economist said.

“This ‘solid’ growth during the quarter did not prevent the unemployment rate from rising, another sign that economic growth was below potential during the quarter,” Arseneau said.

Canada’s unemployment rate hit 6.1 per cent in March, up from 5.7 per cent in January.

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National Bank is currently calling for the jobless rate to rise to seven per cent by the end of the year.

Other examples of the underlying weakness include the deceleration in the rate of inflation.

Over the last three months, the Bank of Canada’s two preferred measures of core inflation were “running at an annualized pace at the lower end of the central bank’s target range” of one per cent, Arseneau said.

These factors should add up to the Bank of Canada cutting rates this summer, with the economist warning that not doing so could risk economic damage.

“This overly restrictive monetary policy is reflected in our gloomy economic outlook for the coming quarters,” with growth for the year barely registering at 0.6 per cent, Arseneau said.

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The Canadian economy lost momentum in February as it grew at a slower pace than both analyst expectations and Statistics Canada’s previous prediction, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Canada for a potential interest rate cut in mid-2024. — Naimul Karim, Financial Post

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  • The United States Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate decision — widely expected to be a hold given rising inflation — at 2 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
  • Gildan Activewear Inc. holds its annual general meeting where activist shareholder and U.S. investment firm Browning West LP will push to have its full slate of 12 directors installed on the board of the T-shirt manufacturing company in a move aimed at reinstating founder Glenn Chamandy as chief executive.
  • The Teamsters Canada Rail Conference will hold a press conference to announce the results of strike votes at Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City.
  • Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem appears before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce and the Economy starting at 4:15 p.m. EDT.
  • Today’s Data: S&P Global Canada manufacturing purchasing manager’s index; U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association released mortgage data for the last week of April;. Automatic Data Processing releases private-sector employment data for March; S&P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing manager’s index
  • Earnings: Barrick Gold Corp., Loblaw Cos. Ltd., Fortis Inc., Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Bausch + Lomb Corp., Cenovus Energy Inc., Great-West Lifeco Inc., Vermilion Energy Inc., Lundin Mining Corp., Tourmaline Oil Corp., Gildan Activewear Inc., The Estee Lauder Co. Inc., Pfizer Inc., Yum Brands Inc., The Kraft Heinz Co., Door Dash Inc., Etsy Inc., Qualcom Inc.
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There’s lots of advice on when to buy a stock, but knowing when to sell can be even more important. Julie Cazzin and investing expert Felix Narhi help this Financial Post reader figure out the timing. Read FP Answers here.


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Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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