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What another Bank of Canada hike could mean to the housing market and borrowers

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Good Morning!

Another Bank of Canada interest rate decision is upon us and as the end of the hiking cycle draws near, it promises to be a cliff hanger.

The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate at a record pace of 400 bps in nine months to 4.25 per cent, and said after its last increase that a decision to raise rates further would depend on the data.

Most expect another hike tomorrow, and the market is putting high odds on a quarter-point increase, which would take the rate to 4.5 per cent.

But data have failed to provide a 100 per cent clear answer either way, and some economists are arguing that the Bank should hold fire.

“Those who argue that another 25 basis points increase will not kill the economy forget that at this stage of the business cycle, the impact of further hikes is not linear. In other words, the marginal increase could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” wrote National Bank economists Matthieu Arseneau and Taylor Schleich.

Signs of stress have been showing up in the Bank of Canada’s own indicators, says Capital Economics. The Bank uses the share of new mortgage borrowers (including renewals) with a debt service ratio of more than 25 per cent of income to identify financially vulnerable households. That share has grown from 12 per cent before the Bank started hiking to 27 per cent in the third quarter. Capital calculates that the share is on track to reach 35 per cent this quarter.

“We suspect the Bank is more concerned about the financial risks of its actions than it has let on so far,” said Capital economist Stephen Brown.

Homebuyers, struggling with the highest borrowing rates in almost 20 years, may also soon face tougher mortgage rules.

Canada’s banking watchdog, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions or OSFI, has proposed a number of measures beyond the existing mortgage stress test including loan-to-income and debt-to-income restrictions and debt-service coverage restrictions.

 

Currently the mortgage stress test puts the minimum qualifying rate for an uninsured mortgage at the greater of the contract rate plus two per cent, or 5.25 per cent.

“It’s going to be an interesting spring,” said Victor Tran, a RATESDOTCA mortgage expert. “If the BoC raises the overnight rate, we may see a slower housing market during the traditional spring housing rush than we are used to, as buyers wait for the market to bottom out before purchasing.

“However, the recent OSFI announcement could push more buyers into the market to purchase before they become unable to do so. Especially if it looks like the consultation will lead to changes in loan-to-income and debt-to-income ratios.”

Tran also predicts that if the Bank hikes the expected 25 bps and the variable-rate hits new highs the spring market may see a surge of investors forced to sell condos, possibly double the usual number.

That and a glut of new builds coming into the market in 2023 could bring condo prices down further.

A increase in mortgage fraud is also possible as people stretch to buy or renew a mortgage under the higher interest rates, he said.

If the Bank raises its rate by 25 basis points on Jan. 25 to 4.5 per cent, the prime rate of commercial banks will rise to 6.7 per cent.

RATESDOTCA says for every 25 bps increase a homeowner with a variable-rate mortgage can expect to pay about $14 more a month per $100,000 of mortgage.

Thus, a homeowner with a $500,000 mortgage at a rate of 5.25 per cent would see their rate rise to 5.50 per cent and payments increase $74 a month to $3,070, it said.

If this same homeowner had taken out their mortgage before March 2022, they would have seen a total increase to their mortgage payments of $1,129 a month since the Bank began hiking rates.

On a more hopeful note, BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic says mortgage rates should now be at or near their peak, if the Bank of Canada continues as expected.

If the Bank stops after a last 25 bps hike, the upward march of variable rates will end.

Meanwhile, a rally in government bonds has pulled 5-year yields in Canada — the basis for most long-term fixed mortgage rates — down to about 2.8 per cent, below the lows seen in December, said Kavcic.

These levels now look more consistent with 5-year fixed mortgage rates being in the 4.5 to 5 per cent range, he said, though it takes time for this to work through the system. (Currently 5-year fixed rates range from 4.39 to 6.49 per cent, according to mortgage comparison sites.)

“This is still a massive shock compared to readily available rates around 1.5 per cent just a year ago, but the stall in upward momentum should help at the margin, and offer some confidence that the worst of the rate shock is behind us,” wrote Kavcic.

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The market is betting the Bank of Canada will hike rates one more time on Jan. 25, with most commercial banks forecasting a quarter-point raise, which would bring the key rate to 4.5 per cent — the highest since 2007. Whether that’s a good bet remains to be seen. As National Bank’s chart above suggests the track record of market rate calls could be better. In all, the Bank of Canada surprised the markets five times in eight meetings in 2022.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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