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Canada’s big cities took the toughest knocks during the pandemic, as families fled to the suburbs and beyond and office buildings emptied out.
Biggest cities accounted for almost half of GDP and employment
Canada’s big cities took the toughest knocks during the pandemic, as families fled to the suburbs and beyond and office buildings emptied out.
Yet despite concerns about “big city cores getting hollowed out,” the reality is they still drive Canada’s economic activity, says a report from Bank of Montreal economists Robert Kavcic and Erik Johnson.
The economists say Canada’s four biggest cities — Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary — have bounced back from the pandemic shock — albeit with a few bumps and scrapes.
Employment in these cities is now 8 per cent higher than in 2019, compared to 6 per cent for the rest of Canada, the report says.
Some industries such as restaurants, hotels and other direct services are still below their past peaks, but surging employment in other areas has made up for it.
Professional and technical industries, education, finance and public administration have all soared above pre-COVID levels, suggesting that big cities are not being hollowed out, but the sources of growth are reshaping, said the economists.
“In an economy where knowledge sector jobs are increasingly driving employment growth, cities will remain important engines of economic activity,” they said.
A look at BMO’s chart below shows that even during the depths of the pandemic the contribution of the country’s biggest cities was staggering, with Toronto’s output towering over the provinces.
In 2020, the four largest cities accounted for 44 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product and 41 per cent of total employment.
“When it comes to overall economic activity, the big cities are still providing significant muscle,” they said.
The high of cost of living continues to drive younger families out. The economists said by mid-2022 about 120,000 people on net moved out of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver combined to other parts of their respective provinces.
Canada has also seen record migration between provinces, with Ontario losing almost 40,000 people on net in the latest year, mostly to Alberta and Atlantic Canada.
“Unlike in past cycles, when younger families would move to find work, or better-paying jobs, affordability is now the biggest motivator,” said the economists.
But immigration is more than filling the void.
Adult population growth in the four largest cities is just under 4 per cent year over year, exceeding the 2.6 per cent growth for the rest of the country.
“The reality is that the big cities are a big draw for international immigrants,” they said.
That’s not to say there aren’t problems.
While young, productive families are pushed out, the flow of newcomers puts immediate stress on housing, services and infrastructure that has become a “major challenge” for cities, said the economists.
Remote and hybrid work is also keeping weekday activity well below “normal” in downtown cores. Public transit ridership is down almost 20 per cent from 2019 across Canada, and in Toronto, it’s off 23 per cent. With transit revenues slumping, municipalities are left to foot the bill, says the report.
Then there is commercial real estate, whose woes have been well documented lately. Office vacancy rates climbed to a “historic high” of 18.3 per cent in Canada last year, and the economists said there is no evidence declining demand has hit bottom in Toronto and Montreal.
Amid uncertain demand and higher borrowing costs, investors continue to turn away from office real estate and further price corrections are still possible, they said.
Another strike against big cities is housing affordability. While this problem is bad across the country, it’s especially bad in these larger centres.
The average home in Regina costs $307,600; in Vancouver you’re looking at $1.27 million and Toronto $1.1 million, the report says.
BMO’s bottom line: “Despite the challenges facing Canada’s largest cities coming out of the pandemic, they are poised to remain key drivers of future economic growth,” said the economists.
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Cooler inflation was a welcome relief to Canadians and probably the Bank of Canada this week. The inflation rate decelerated to 2.8 per cent in February, data showed Tuesday, the first time the consumer price index has fallen within the central bank’s target range for two straight months since early 2021. If you strip out shelter costs, which are linked to higher interest rates, inflation is 1.3 per cent for the nation, and 2 per cent or below for the provinces, says National Bank of Canada economist Stéfane Marion. Manitoba slips into deflation.
The numbers highlight that there is the risk the Bank of Canada is already doing damage to the economy with overly restrictive rates, said Marion.
“The last time the BOC’s policy rate was as high as it is now with so many provinces with CPI exshelter inflation below 2 per cent was in the early 1990s,” he said. “That did not end well for the Canadian economy.”
Financial help for your children can range from helping them keep their heads above water to helping them to buy a house, as well as gifting in your lifetime rather than letting the kids wait for their inheritance. The risk is whether you can afford to make a gift in the first place. Ted Rechtshaffen helps you do the homework before you put a bow on it.
Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you wondering how to make ends meet? Drop us a line at aholloway@postmedia.com with your contact info and the general gist of your problem and we’ll try to find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). If you have a simpler question, the crack team at FP Answers led by Julie Cazzin or one of our columnists can give it a shot.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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