Wed, April 24, 2024 at 9:35 AM EDT
Business
Posthaste: Why the new mortgage stress test rules could not have come at a worse time for Canada's frothy housing market – Financial Post
Good Morning!
New mortgage stress test rules set to be rolled out on April 6 could be a boon for would-be home buyers, as it will be more responsive to actual mortgage rates than the current posted rate system, but it “could also be more volatile,” according to the Royal Bank of Canada.
The government is replacing its current method of system based on the large banks’ posted mortgage rates, with one based on the contract rates on all insured mortgages.
Colin Guldimann, an economist at RBC, believes the changes could have a meaningful impact on housing markets across the country.
“For the average household in Toronto with an income around $100,000, this would increase how much they can borrow by about $13,000. Borrowers with higher incomes or larger down payments would see their maximum loan sizes move up somewhat more,” the economist said in a note.
Capital Economics’ senior Canada economist Stephen Brown notes that while the stress test rule would likely mean that Bank of Canada would not change interest rates soon, “the timing could hardly be worse.”
“Reducing the severity of the stress tests is likely to put further upward pressure on house prices, at a time when the sales-to-new listing ratio already points to a surge in house price inflation ahead,” Brown wrote in a note. “The dilemma the Bank currently faces, between the need to support activity on the one hand and the need to limit the build-up of financial risks on the other, will only get worse.”
Here’s what you need to know this morning:
- Statistics Canada to release its consumer price index for January
- Bloc Quebecois and New Democratic Party MPs and the Green Party Parliamentary Leader will be joined by environmental and law groups to reveal new information about the rising costs of the Trans Mountain pipeline and call on the government not to borrow any more money for this project
- Mortgage Professionals of Canada to hold press conference in Ottawa on the state of the mortgage market in Canada and their recommendations to policymakers
- The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) will release online the results of its review of bank complaint handling procedures and its review of the operations of external complaints bodies in Ottawa
- Finance Minister Bill Morneau appears before the House of Commons finance committee regarding pre-budget consultations in Ottawa
- CRTC hearings on mobile wireless services in Gatineau, Que.
- A detailed route hearing is held for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in Edmonton
- Tourmaline Oil Corp. , Topaz Oil Corp., and CWC Energy Services Corp. to appear in court to face charges after a release in 2018 of poisonous hydrogen sulphide that affected human health in Grand Prairie, Alta.
- Notable Earnings: Uni-Select Inc., Bausch Health, Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd, Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd., Alamos Gold Inc., Iamgold
The novel coronavirus is spreading. And health officials don’t seem to have a handle on it yet. Read out full coverage here.
— Please send your news, comments and stories to yhussain@postmedia.com. — Yadullah Hussain @Yad_Fpenergy
With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg
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Business
Oil Firms Doubtful Trans Mountain Pipeline Will Start Full Service by May 1st
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Oil companies planning to ship crude on the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada are concerned that the project may not begin full service on May 1 but they would be nevertheless obligated to pay tolls from that date.
In a letter to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Suncor Energy and other shippers including BP and Marathon Petroleum have expressed doubts that Trans Mountain will start full service on May 1, as previously communicated, Reuters reports.
Trans Mountain Corporation, the government-owned entity that completed the pipeline construction, told Reuters in an email that line fill on the expanded pipeline would be completed in early May.
After a series of delays, cost overruns, and legal challenges, the expanded Trans Mountain oil pipeline will open for business on May 1, the company said early this month.
“The Commencement Date for commercial operation of the expanded system will be May 1, 2024. Trans Mountain anticipates providing service for all contracted volumes in the month of May,” Trans Mountain Corporation said in early April.
The expanded pipeline will triple the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast.
The Federal Government of Canada bought the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) from Kinder Morgan back in 2018, together with related pipeline and terminal assets. That cost the federal government $3.3 billion (C$4.5 billion) at the time. Since then, the costs for the expansion of the pipeline have quadrupled to nearly $23 billion (C$30.9 billion).
The expansion project has faced continuous delays over the years. In one of the latest roadblocks in December, the Canadian regulator denied a variance request from the project developer to move a small section of the pipeline due to challenging drilling conditions.
The company asked the regulator to reconsider its decision, and received on January 12 a conditional approval, avoiding what could have been another two-year delay to start-up.
Business
Tesla profits cut in half as demand falls
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Tesla profits slump by more than a half
Tesla has announced its profits fell sharply in the first three months of the year to $1.13bn (£910m), compared with $2.51bn in 2023.
It caps a difficult period for the electric vehicle (EV) maker, which – faced with falling sales – has announced thousands of job cuts.
Boss Elon Musk remains bullish about its prospects, telling investors the launch of new models would be brought forward.
Its share price has risen but analysts say it continues to face significant challenges, including from lower-cost rivals.
The company has suffered from falling demand and competition from cheaper Chinese imports which has led its stock price to collapse by 43% over 2024.
Figures for the first quarter of 2024 revealed revenues of $21.3bn, down on analysts’ predictions of just over $22bn.
But the decision by Tesla to bring forward the launch of new models from the second half of 2025 boosted its shares by nearly 12.5% in after-hours trading.
It did not reveal pricing details for the new vehicles.
However Mr Musk made clear he also grander ambitions, touting Tesla’s AI credentials and plans for self-driving vehicles – even going as far as to say considering it to be just a car company was the “wrong framework.”
“If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy I think they should not be an investor,” he said.
Such sentiments have been questioned by analysts though, with Deutsche Bank saying driverless cars face “technological, regulatory and operational challenges.”
Some investors have called for the company to instead focus on releasing a lower price, mass-market EV.
However, Tesla has already been on a charm offensive, trying to win over new customers by dropping its prices in a series of markets in the face of falling sales.
It also said its situation was not unique.
“Global EV sales continue to be under pressure as many carmakers prioritize hybrids over EVs,” it said.
Despite plans to bring forward new models originally planned for next year the firm is cutting its workforce.
Tesla said it would lose 3,332 jobs in California and 2,688 positions in Texas, starting mid-June.
The cuts in Texas represent 12% of Tesla’s total workforce of almost 23,000 in the area where its gigafactory and headquarters are located.
However, Mr Musk sought to downplay the move.
“Tesla has now created over 30,000 manufacturing jobs in California!” he said in a post on his social media platform X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday.
Another 285 jobs will be lost in New York.
Tesla’s total workforce stood at more than 140,000 late last year, up from around 100,000 at the end of 2021, according to the company’s filings with US regulators.
Musk’s salary
The car firm is also facing other issues, with a struggle over Mr Musk’s compensation still raging on.
On Wednesday, Tesla asked shareholders to vote for a proposal to accept Mr Musk’s compensation package – once valued at $56bn – which had been rejected by a Delaware judge.
The judge found Tesla’s directors had breached their fiduciary duty to the firm by awarding Mr Musk the pay-out.
Due to the fall in Tesla’s stock value, the compensation package is now estimated to be around $10bn less – but still greater than the GDP of many countries.
In addition, Tesla wants its shareholders to agree to the firm being moved from Delaware to Texas – which Mr Musk called for after the judge rejected his payday.
Business
Stock market today: Nasdaq futures pop, Tesla surges after earnings with more heavyweights on deck
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Tech stocks rose on Wednesday, outstripping the broader market as investors welcomed Tesla’s (TSLA) cheaper car pledge and waited for the next rush of corporate earnings.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 0.6%, coming off a sharp closing gain. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was up 0.2%, continuing a rebound from its longest losing streak of 2024, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.1%.
Tesla shares jumped nearly 12% after the EV maker’s vow to speed up the launch of more affordable models eclipsed its quarterly earnings and revenue miss. That cheered up investors worried about growth amid a strategy shift to robotaxis and the planned cancellation of a cheaper model.
The results from the first “Magnificent Seven” to report have intensified the already high hopes for Big Tech earnings, that the megacaps can revive the rally in stocks they powered. The spotlight is now on Meta’s (META) report due after the market close, as the Facebook owner’s shares rose after the Senate voted for a potential ban on rival TikTok. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) next up on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Boeing (BA) reported better than expected first quarter results before the opening bell with a loss per share of $1.13, narrower than the $1.72 estimated by Wall Street. Shares rose about 2% in morning trade.
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