Powerful U.S. economic surge will help countries like Canada, says Federal Reserve chair - CBC.ca | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

Powerful U.S. economic surge will help countries like Canada, says Federal Reserve chair – CBC.ca

Published

 on


Canadian consumers and businesses got a dose of encouraging news from U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell yesterday. He’s forecasting a strong upsurge in U.S. economic growth and jobs that he expects will overflow that country’s borders.

But Canadian borrowers should be happy too, since, for now at least, he appears to have convinced world markets that an economic boom will not cause an equivalent surge in long-term inflation or interest rates.

Speaking to reporters yesterday after the U.S. central bank’s latest monetary policy statement, Powell poured oil on the troubled waters of U.S. financial markets frightened that inflation, and thus interest rates, were on the way up.

Markets — that like homeowners, don’t like rising rates — recovered as Powell spoke and interest rates in the bond market declined. That is a positive sign for Canadian borrowers because U.S. commercial rates tend to lead mortgage and other lending costs higher here in Canada.

U.S. offers global support

Powell upgraded U.S. growth projections in 2021 to 6.5 per cent from his previously forecast 4.2 per cent. He said that a four-pronged boost to the economy, including: the $1.9-trillion fiscal stimulus from Congress, monetary stimulus from the Fed, consumers spending accumulated savings, and an attack on the virus from a strong vaccine rollout, would allow the country to lead the way for its trade partners.

“Very strong U.S. demand as the economy improves is going to support global activity as well,” he said.

But Powell’s greatest success yesterday was managing to persuade share markets and bond traders that despite a flood of economic activity both at home and across the Canadian border, the boom would only have a temporary, “transitory” in his terminology, effect on inflation.

In the short term, said Powell, there will be a “pop” in inflation, hitting 2.4 per cent by year end, according to the Fed’s new forecast.

Powell’s calming effect on bond markets was reassuring for Canadians with mortgages as he implied interest rates are not set to rise, for now at least. (Reuters)

A comparable trend is underway north of the border, said Canada’s top central banker, Tiff Macklem. Hit hard about one year ago by the pandemic shock, the price of gasoline and some other goods plunged. Now that gas prices are returning to normal, inflation data will seem to show a sharp rise from those year-ago levels.

But Powell sees another transitory inflationary effect. As lockdowns lift and people rush out to spend, restaurants, airlines and manufacturers will have to gear up suddenly, creating a short-term shortage of workers and goods, leading to higher prices.

“It wouldn’t be surprising, and you are seeing this now particularly in the goods economy, there will be bottlenecks, they won’t be able to service all the demand, maybe, for a period,” he said. “It will turn out to be a one-time bulge in prices but it won’t change inflation going forward.”

That central bank outlook depends on what it calls long-term “inflationary expectations” where we are all convinced prices will rise at a rate of about 2 per cent per year, in the full knowledge that if it gets too far above that rate, the Fed and the Bank of Canada will step in to pull it back down.

Ready for liftoff

Only after “liftoff” of the economy and unemployment close to pre-pandemic levels, currently forecast for 2024, will interest rates begin to rise again.

Powell remained strongly optimistic that the latest burst of fiscal spending would prevent “scarring,” which both he and Macklem have warned about before, and which he described as permanent damage to U.S. industrial capacity.

Of course that does not mean the future is certain. Powell admitted that many things could go wrong, including a renewed outbreak of virus variants.

A worker of the New York City Fire Department Bureau of Emergency Medical Services (FDNY EMS) receives a COVID-19 vaccine. The U.S. is making good progress on mass vaccination, one of the reasons the prospects for the economy are much better than the Fed’s last prediction. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

Also one reporter raised the spectre of “a Japan-like situation” where interest rates and inflation stay low with implications for stock markets and house prices that rise into a bubble. But Powell pointed out that interest rates had stayed near zero for seven years following the last recession without bad effects.

“We didn’t see, actually, excess build-up of debt, we didn’t see asset prices form into bubbles that would threaten the progress of the economy,” said Powell.

There is no question that this recovery is much different from the last. Current prospects for the economy are not what central bankers expected just a few months ago and they may not be what the bankers expect in 2023 either.

“The chances are that the economy in that time and place will be very different from the one we think it will be,” said Powell “It’s very hard to predict given that we’ve never seen an event like this.”

Follow Don Pittis on Twitter @don_pittis

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version