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Pressure grows for sensitive Belarus air safety probe

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Pressure is growing for an impartial safety probe into the forced landing of a Ryanair jet in Minsk, including review of the plane’s black boxes – a move fraught with sensitivities over access to evidence, aviation experts said.

International condemnation of the scrambling of a fighter jet and the use of what turned out to be a false bomb alert to divert the flight to Minsk and detain a dissident Belarusian journalist has focused mainly on accusations of state-sponsored hijacking and rights violations.

But Europe’s aviation regulator said on Wednesday that Belarus’s actions had also cast doubt on its ability to provide safe air navigation, and some international officials are pushing for an investigation close to the type seen when a plane crashes or something goes technically wrong.

Opening such an investigation would test a system of global co-operation that has generally worked smoothly for decades, aviation experts said.

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That’s because under a global protocol called Annex 13 Belarus, as the “state of occurrence”, would have the right to lead any ordinary safety probe with “unrestricted authority” over key evidence such as the plane’s black boxes.

“The state of occurrence has the lead,” said Michael Daniel, a former U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident investigator. “However they are also the prime suspect in this case.”

A probe would not take place entirely behind closed doors. The United States, where the Boeing 737 was made, and Poland, where it is registered, would be accredited. And states with passengers on board would have access to some information.

Lithuania, the destination of the flight from Greece, has said passengers included 94 Lithuanians, nine French citizens and 11 Greeks. Also on board was Russian citizen Sophia Sapega, the 23-year-old girlfriend of dissident Roman Protasevich, who was detained along with him.

Her presence on the flight could open the door to observer status for Belarus’ closest ally in any investigation following normal safety probe rules.

RARE LOOPHOLE

Experts said Sunday’s forcing down of the plane in Belarus was among a handful of extremely rare incidents that have exposed a loophole allowing countries accused of violations in their own airspace to control a probe carried out in the sometimes grey zone between security and safety.

Last year Iran led an investigation into the shooting down of a Ukrainian plane on its territory, blaming it on the error of a military operator. But Ukraine and Canada criticised the final report and relatives questioned the probe’s impartiality.

The cockpit voice recorder has the potential to play an important role in any investigation if its two-hour loop retains a recording of communications before landing.

Belarus released what it said was an extract of the air traffic control transcript on Tuesday, but it differed from extracts previously publicised on Belarusian state TV and also appeared to contradict statements from Minsk airport officials.

‘SERIOUS INCIDENT’

Belarus, which has blamed the diversion on an alleged bomb threat and accused the West of using the episode to wage “hybrid war”, has invited U.S., European and international aviation officials to join it against “acts of unlawful interference”.

But Europe’s warning could favour a probe on safety grounds. These fall into categories including “accident” or “serious incident”.

“It’s definitely a serious incident, when you have air traffic control essentially lying to you to tell you that there is something that’s putting your aircraft at risk but it’s not clear why and you have to follow these aircraft and land here,” said Mark Zee, founder of flight advisory firm OPSGROUP.

Daniel, the former FAA investigator, said a more international approach than usual was needed to bring “credibility and objectiveness”, as happened after the downing by missile of a Malaysia Airlines jet over Ukraine in 2014.

In that case, the majority of victims were from the Netherlands, which led the probe with Ukraine’s permission.

“If the investigation is not going to be able to be freely investigated by the Belarusian authorities – and that seems unlikely given the nature of the event – then you would want some other country,” Zee said.

“It may be an alliance of states that will say ‘we’ll investigate this to the best of our ability’.”

Airlines have called for a broad international probe.

The U.N.’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is convening an urgent meeting of its 36-member council, which has some scope for fact-finding investigations, on Thursday.

“All the aviation authorities will take it seriously because it is unprecedented and it goes to the integrity of the air traffic management system,” aviation lawyer John Dawson said.

“The whole thing about the air traffic management system is that everything is designed for a safe and efficient way to land an aircraft. When it becomes political, to get hold of a political opponent, it is obviously counter to that aim.”

(Reporting by Jamie Freed and Tim Hepher; additonal reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis, Pavel Polityuk, Justyna Pawlak; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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Why Canada's record population growth is helping – and hurting – the economy – CTV News

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Canada has recorded the fastest population growth in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, in 2023, according to a new report from Statistics Canada.

The country has not seen such growth since 1957, when the spike was attributed to the baby boom and an influx of immigrants fleeing Hungary.

The vast majority of Canada’s growth last year was due to immigration, with temporary residents — which includes foreign workers and international students — making up the largest proportion of newcomers.

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“We need people coming to Canada to help with our economy,” says Matti Siemiatycki, a professor of planning at the University of Toronto. “There are many jobs and professions where there are vacancies, and that is having an impact, whether in the healthcare sector or trades and construction sector.”

Siemiatycki adds immigrants also bring “ingenuity… resources… and culture” to Canada.

Newcomers are relied on to help keep pace with Canada’s aging population and declining fertility rates, but the influx also presents a challenge for a country struggling to build the homes and infrastructure needed for immigrants.

“It’s an incredibly large shock for the economic system to absorb because of just the sheer number of people coming into the country in a short period of time,” says Robert Kavcic. a senior economist and director with BMO Capital Markets.

“The reality is population can grow extremely fast, but the supply side of the economy like housing and service infrastructure, think health care and schools, can only catch up at a really gradual pace,” Kavcic says. “So there is a mismatch right now.”

The impact of that mismatch can most acutely be seen in the cost of rent, services and housing.

In December, Kavcic wrote in a note that Canada needs to build 170,000 new housing units every three months to keep up with population growth, noting the industry is struggling to complete 220,000 units in a full year.

To address this, Ottawa has announced plans to cap the number of new temporary residents while also reducing the number of international student visas, a move economists say could offer some relief when it comes to housing and the cost of living.

“The arithmetic on the caps actual works relatively well because it would take us back down to 1 per cent population growth which we have been used to over the last decade and which is more or less absorbable by the economy,” Kavcic says. “The question is whether or not we see policy makers follow through and hit those numbers.”

Economists believe these changes could help ease inflationary pressures and may make a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely, but could also lead to slower GDP growth.

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Canada’s population hits 41M months after breaking 40M threshold – Global News

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Nine months after reaching a population of 40 million, Canada has cracked a new threshold.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s estimated 41 million people now call the country home, according to Statistics Canada’s live population tracker.

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The speed at which Canada’s population is growing was also reflected in new data released Wednesday by the federal agency: between Jan. 1 2023 and Jan. 1 2024, Canada added 1,271,872 inhabitants, a 3.2 per cent growth rate — the highest since 1957.

Most of Canada’s 3.2 per cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration. Without it, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said.


Click to play video: 'Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population'

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Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population


From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, Canada’s population increased by 241,494 people (0.6 per cent), the highest rate of growth in a fourth quarter since 1956.

Usha George, a professor at the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement at Toronto Metropolitan University, told Global News in June a booming population can benefit the economy.

“It is not the bodies we are bringing in; these are bodies that fill in the empty spaces in the labour market,” she said.

“They bring a very-high level of skills.”


Click to play video: 'Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan'

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Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan


However, Ottawa has recently sought to ease the flow of temporary immigration in a bid to ease cost-of-living woes.


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Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation.

The next day, BMO economist Robert Kavcic in a note to clients the new limits will have a positive impact on Canada’s rental market and overall housing crisis.

“We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has had an excess demand problem in housing, and this is maybe the clearest example,” Kavcic said.

“Non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800K in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Alberta gains, Ontario loses: A look at Canadian migration in 2023

If Alberta is truly calling, then it appears more Canadians are choosing to answer.

Putting the pun on the provincial government’s attraction campaign aside, Canada’s wild rose country saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, Statistics Canada said in Wednesday’s report.


Click to play video: 'Is Alberta ready for population growth?'

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Is Alberta ready for population growth?


The agency said 55,107 Canadians moved to Alberta last year, which was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data become available in 1972.

“Alberta has been recording gains in population from interprovincial migration since 2022, a reverse of the trend seen from 2016 to 2021, when more people left the province than arrived from other parts of Canada,” Statistics Canada said.

“Approximately 333,000 Canadians moved from one province or territory to another in 2023, the second-highest number recorded since the 1990s and the third straight year that interprovincial migration topped 300,000.”

Meanwhile, British Columbia had 8,624 more residents move out than in in 2023, meaning net interprovincial migration was negative for the first time since 2012, Statistics Canada said.

In general, the largest migration flows for British Columbia and Alberta are with each other, and most of the net loss from British Columbia in 2023 was to Alberta, it added.


Click to play video: '‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population'

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‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population


It also seems that good things may no longer be growing in Ontario; Canada’s most populous province lost 36,197 people to other regions in 2023, the biggest regional loss in 2023, Statistics Canada said.

That followed a loss of 38,816 people in 2022; the only other times a province has lost more than 35,000 people due to migration to other parts of Canada occurred in Quebec in 1977 and 1978.

Alberta aside, net interprovincial migration was also up in Nova Scotia (+6,169 people), New Brunswick (+4,790) and Prince Edward Island (+818), although all three Maritime provinces gained fewer interprovincial migrants in 2023 than in the two previous years, Statistics Canada said.

— with files from Uday Rana and Sean Previl

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