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Projecting the Maple Leafs playoff roster – Pension Plan Puppets

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This week, the NHL announced further details in their Return to Play protocol, you can read up on all that in the links below. Along with a 24-team playoff format, the NHL has announced rules for how many roster players each team can carry during training camps and games. Each team is allowed 28 skaters and as many goaltenders as they can carry (that are on NHL contracts), which I’m calling the Dave Ayres Rule.

Let’s have a look at who they’re bringing.

The Goalies

The Toronto Maple Leafs have five goaltenders under contract for the 2019-20 season. Frederik Andersen, Jack Campbell, Kasimir Kaskisuo, Joseph Woll, and Ian Scott. It seems quite logical that the Leafs will bring the first four with them, with Ian Scott on the maybe list depending on how far he’s rehabbed after hip surgery. Four seems like a nice even number, though.

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28 Skaters

There are 21 skaters currently on the Leafs active roster according to CapFriendly. They are listed below:

Forwards: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot, Kasperi Kapanen, Zach Hyman, Kyle Clifford, Pierre Engvall, Denis Malgin, Jason Spezza, Frederik Gauthier
Defense: Morgan Rielly, Cody Ceci, Jake Muzzin, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Sandin, Travis Dermott, Calle Rosen, Martin Marincin, Justin Holl

There are four players on Long-Term Injury Reserve. Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, Andreas Johnsson, and Ilya Mikheyev. Quite a quartet. Mikheyev is 100% healthy, per his agent. Johnsson was scheduled to be out six months starting in February, putting his return date in August, which is when the NHL expects the playoffs to begin.

Adding those two, the number of skaters up to 23.

Timothy Liljegren is currently with the Marlies, but all indications are that he’s a lock to join the Leafs for the playoffs. 24.

Nick Robertson, the Leafs most recent top pick, has made the cut, according to GM Kyle Dubas! He’s flown into Toronto from California where he was quarantining with his parents and brother. After destroying the OHL as an 18-year-old, how Robertson fares against NHL players will be a very interesting test. This will almost be a rehearsal for his potential arrival into the league in 2020-21. 25.

And now is when it gets tricky. With 15 forwards and 10 defensemen essentially locked in, there are only three spots remaining of the 28. I wrote an article a couple weeks ago when Taxi Squads were being discussed. The list of current Marlies with a shot at some playoff action is quite long.

In hindsight, my shortlist was quite long, I was expecting the Leafs to take nine extras, including Liljegren and Robertson. Here’s what I had:

Black Aces
F: Nic Petan, Adam Brooks, Pontus Aberg, Kenny Agostino, Egor Korshkov, Nick Robertson
D: Timothy Liljegren, Kevin Gravel, Teemu Kivihalme

Right off the bat, I think I’m comfortable taking Gravel and Kivihalme off the list. The Leafs have six left defensemen and four righties in the 25 above, and both Gravel and Kivihalme shoot left.

At forward, I think the Leafs would really like to have Adam Brooks on their roster. He’s tailor-made for spot duty on the fourth line and he’s a centre, of which the Leafs only have five that sit naturally at that position (Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot(ish), Spezza, Gauthier). He would bring the number up to 26.

Kenny Agostino was confirmed to be heading back to Toronto in order to join the Leafs playoff roster, so he’s in. I can’t say I’m surprised considering he was the best Marlies forward last season and his chance in the NHL was long overdue. Agostino is a quick, deceptive winger with a great shot. He’s good enough in his own zone and is valuable on the power play. 27.

The Last Man

Now it gets really tough. Do the Leafs like Egor Korshkov enough to bring him? I think so? I’m not confident in it, especially with Nic Petan and Pontus Aberg both also on the shortlist.

Korshkov was liked during his time with the Leafs, scoring in his one-and-only NHL game. In the AHL, Korshkov succeeded when he was healthy and playing with quality teammates. Unfortunately, he missed time due to injury twice and was shoved on the third line for much of the season, so his results aren’t anything to be inspired by. I think Korshkov has a lot of value to the Leafs, and as the 18th forward, it might be more valuable to have him practicing and learning for a shot next season than sitting at home.

Petan and Aberg are the other two options. Based on their NHL performances, Nic Petan edges out Pontus Aberg, though in the AHL it’s the other way around. Aberg is a hard-nosed winger who has a chip on his shoulder. He’s got skill and he’s been in the playoffs before. And the rumours he’s heading to the KHL don’t seem to be founded. Petan is a creative puck-mover who had great shot metrics with the Leafs and is a different dimension from the other fourth liners the Leafs currently have.

I think both can provide a dimension on the fourth line that currently isn’t being filled; someone who can carry the puck in transition and facilitate with some finishers. Maybe they think Malgin and Brooks can do it and they’d rather go with size in Korshkov, or maybe they’ll realize a more open, rusty style is something a player like Petan can excel in.

So, you can only pick one. Who do you choose? Petan, Aberg, Agostino.

Poll

Who rounds out the Leafs playoff roster as the 28th skater?

  • 57%

    Egor Korshkov

    (490 votes)

  • 25%

    Nic Petan

    (213 votes)

  • 13%

    Pontus Aberg

    (113 votes)

  • 4%

    Someone else.

    (36 votes)



852 votes total

Vote Now

Lineup Projection

I don’t think we’ve had a game where the entire Leafs roster has been healthy and included the graduates like Engvall and Sandin. Finding the right seven combinations of players is going to be a very challenging task, and I’m sure lots of people on the internet are going to have their suggestions.

Here’s my guess:

Ilya Mikheyev – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner

It doesn’t really seem to matter which right winger lines up next to which centre when it comes to the Big Four. Matthews and Marner are buddies and always wanted to play together under Babcock, if it keeps them happy, why not.

Mikheyev was skating when the pause happened in mid March. It’s been 10 weeks since then so I’d be moderately comfortable throwing him right back into the fire like they did to start the regular season, all those many months ago.

3M line, anyone?

Zach HymanJohn TavaresWilliam Nylander

I like the idea of Tavares having the puck more and not always having to be the first player to the front of the net. Let Hyman do that and let Tavares be a bit more creative with Nylander. All three of these players are heady forwards who like to score right in the front of the net. They will be absolute havoc together. And for anyone concerned about Nylander’s defense, he’s got some of the best supporting linemates on the team.

Andreas Johnsson – Alex Kerfoot – Kasperi Kapanen

Johnsson has a longer recovery timeline than Mikheyev and is coming off surgery, so having him on a more sheltered third line with his Marlies buddy Kasperi Kapanen feels like a good place to be. They haven’t played very much all together, but Kapanen has good numbers with both Kerfoot and Johnsson as duos.

I am a little worried that Keefe will break up this trio if he thinks Mikheyev isn’t quite ready for top line minutes and put Kerfoot on the wing. I’ve never liked when he did that, it made the whole bottom six useless when depth has always been what the Leafs pride themselves on. If Kerfoot does become a winger, Spezza will likely come up to centre the line.

Kyle Clifford – Pierre Engvall – Jason Spezza

Mathematically, there are 84 combinations for this fourth line with the nine players remaining on the roster. I picked these three because they have the most NHL experience this year and they fit nicely as a trio.

Engvall and Spezza fit the LH-RH centre duo so they can take draws on both sides. All three have size and some snarl to them. Engvall is strong on the penalty kill and forecheck. Spezza is useful to move up the lineup, on second power play unit, and his shot is great. And, honestly, I don’t remember much from Clifford as a Leaf but I hear people like him.

If he’s prepared, Robertson has a chance to take one of these spots.

Forward Scratches

Frederik Gauthier, Denis Malgin, Adam Brooks, Nick Robertson, Kenny Agostino, Egor Korshkov/Nic Petan/Pontus Aberg.

Jake MuzzinJustin Holl

This is the first pair pretty much entirely through default. They’ve been a pair all season and they’ve done as well as you could ask for at 5v5. The Leafs really missed Muzzin when he got injured, so having him back will be great. Both of these guys have contract extensions with nice modest raises coming next season, whenever that is.

Morgan RiellyTravis Dermott

Rielly has been the Leafs top-pairing defenseman for some time now. He’s played top competition every night and has been as good as one could ask. The thing holding him back from top lines this season has been his partner. He just hasn’t had someone on his right side that can live up to the same level of competition.

When he was with Barrie, they played third pair defensive minutes. Rielly and Ceci were a trainwreck as the top pair, and the whole point when acquiring Ceci was that he could thrive more in sheltered minutes. The Leafs would be asking a lot out of Sandin if they put him in the top-four so immediately.

So the role, in my opinion, falls to Dermott. He hasn’t had much time on the right side, but he played some top-four this season and did pretty okay. Maybe Rielly is the guy who switches over, who knows.

This pairing will also run double duty as a litmus test for how the Leafs plan to lineup in the future. They have Rielly, Muzzin, Sandin, Dermott, and Mikko Lehtonen under team control for next season, and at least one is going to have to play their off side. Dermott has been widely talked about as the odd-man out on the left side, but if he can prove that he can play the right, it keeps him in his hometown of Toronto.

Rasmus Sandin – Tyson Barrie

Sandin will without a doubt be the defensive conscious of this pairing. They’re going to get offensive minutes and spot shifts with Rielly to keep their minutes up, which has been something Keefe has done often.

Defense Scratches

Cody Ceci, Calle Rosen, Martin Marincin, Timothy Liljegren.

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Need to Know: Bruins at Maple Leafs | Game 3 | Boston Bruins – NHL.com

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Familiar Territory

James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.

“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”

van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.

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“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.

“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”

Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.

“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”

van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.

“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. PanthersLightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. BruinsMaple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden KnightsStars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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