The Alberta government is launching a review of the investment policy for Alberta’s Heritage Savings Trust Fund, which was battered by heavy losses earlier this year.
At the fund’s annual general meeting in Edmonton on Thursday, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance assistant deputy minister Lowell Epp announced his department will launch a “major review” of the $17-billion fund’s overall investment strategy and asset portfolio.
The review will be the first of its kind since 2011. It comes after a year that saw the Heritage fund — a rainy-day account financed by oil and gas royalties — pummelled by COVID-19 and risky investment decisions.
Seven years of gains were wiped out from the portfolio this spring after a volatility-based investment strategy left the fund’s investments vulnerable to the economic toll of the pandemic.
“There is a legislative requirement to invest the Heritage Savings Trust Fund in order to maximize long-term earnings with a prudent level of risk,” Jerrica Goodwin, a spokesperson for Treasury Board and Finance, said in an emailed statement Friday.
“This internal review will take place over the next year and will only evaluate how the fund is invested. This is not a review of the purpose of the fund, how it is used, nor will it consider changes to legislation.”
Kevin Uebelein, CEO of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo), which manages the Heritage fund, said he only learned of the review at Thursday’s meeting but wasn’t surprised.
The review could result in changes to the fund’s overall asset mix, and how much risk its investments are allowed to take, Uebelein said.
“That kind of review, which is going to be thinking about the investment thesis, the investment policy, and then ultimately, the asset allocation that comes from that policy — those are all the responsibility of the Alberta government,” Uebelein said in an interview Friday.
“How does that impact the investment philosophy of the Heritage fund? Those are conversations that hopefully both the government and AIMCo will be able to have together.”
AIMCo operates at arm’s-length from the government. In addition to the Heritage fund, it manages 30 other government investment funds, along with three huge public sector pension plans for nearly 375,000 Albertans.
Uebelein said AIMCO’s investment strategy was ill-equipped to handle the unprecedented economic volatility caused by the pandemic.
AIMCo has succeeded in taking measured investment risks for years but this past year was the exception, he said.
The fund’s weakness was in an investment strategy that saw it make bets against volatility in the markets. This spring, amid unprecedented swings in the market, AIMCo lost billions on derivatives, investments that pay off only if stock prices remain stable.
‘An extremely painful lesson’
“It had been for many years quite a successful strategy. And then there was a week in March, I remember it, it’s sort of tattooed in my psyche,” Uebelein said.
“The world experienced volatility like it really never seen before and a strategy that had been a perennial winner really was quite a large loser.
“That strategy is shut down now … And that was an extremely painful lesson.”
AIMCo came under fire this spring when it lost $2.1 billion on the volatility-based investment strategy.
The missteps cost the Heritage fund $411 million. In combination with global market losses in February and March, the fund was valued at $16.3 billion on March 31, its lowest point since 2011-12, according to the fund’s most recent annual report, released in July.
The value was down about 10 per cent from the same time last year.
The value of the Heritage fund dropped $1.9 billion during 2019-20 — $1 billion was transferred to the province’s general revenue fund, and net losses, including unrealized losses, were $887 million for the fiscal year.
The investment breakdown included 44.8 per cent in equities, 19.5 per cent in fixed income and money market and 34.9 per cent in inflation-sensitive and alternative investments.
‘A marathon recovery’
Uebelein said AIMCo has already analyzed its losses extensively and is making changes to the investment portfolio.
“Accountability includes being willing to talk about what happened, what we’re doing,” he said.
“It includes making the necessary changes to the organization to make sure that those things never happen again and that we will learn and that we improve from that.”
The Heritage fund has slowly started to recover. As of June 30, the fund was worth $17.2 billion.
Investment income for the quarter was pegged at $4 million with a five per cent rate of return.
Despite the gains, Uebelein said it will take years for the account to fully recover.
“You know, that may sound quite promising, but I just have to say, the recovery for the Heritage fund is really quite like the recovery in all of our lives and the economy writ large,” he said.
“We’re in a marathon recovery here. It’s not going to happen overnight. And we have to find a gear so that we can grind through this.”
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
