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Québec real estate opportunities in tumultuous times – Real Estate News EXchange

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Montréal skyline at dusk (image courtesy: Adobe Stock)

A bumpy road ahead

At the time of writing (July 13, 2022), the Bank of Canada had just announced a 100-basis-point hike to the interest rate, bringing the overall policy rate to 2.50%. Another hike is expected in September, with the figure expected to reach, conservatively, 3.75% by the end of the year. Inflation in Canada jumped to 7.7% in May 2022 and shows no sign of abating. The war in Ukraine, the lingering threat of COVID, heaving public markets, and disrupted supply chains all point to a bumpy road ahead.

La Belle Province is uniquely positioned to weather the storm

Québec, “La Belle Province”, is uniquely positioned to weather this storm. It demonstrated a high level of resilience throughout the COVID pandemic and bounced back faster than its Canadian peers, as well as the U.S. and the E.U.: its 2021 GDP growth of 5.6% surpassed Ontario’s (4.6%), Alberta’s (5.1%) and Canada’s (4.2%) as a whole.

This performance is, partially, the result of strong fiscal discipline, which led to record budgetary surpluses in the years leading up to the COVID pandemic and a reduced debt burden. The provincial economy, historically underpinned by the natural resource and manufacturing sectors, has significantly diversified in the last decade: A mix of public and private investments has led to the development of a world-class technology, AI, and digital arts community, a competitive pharmaceutical and bio-medical hub, and a strong entrepreneurial culture. A favourable regulatory environment, below-average operating costs, and a highly educated labour force have made it an attractive place for businesses: The Greater Montréal Area alone attracted $3.77 billion in foreign investment in 2021. Furthermore, through the Québec Infrastructure Plan, the government has committed over $140 billion to high-priority sectors such as health, education, and transportation.

Altogether, the unemployment rate of 4.3% is among the lowest across the country, 40% of the population has completed post-secondary education, and immigration is expected to skyrocket to a record high of 72,000 new permanent residents in 2022.

Québec real estate offers excellent investment opportunities

In spite of rising headwinds, this bodes well for real estate investments and those investors looking for affordable opportunities underpinned by secure fundamentals.

The province and its major investment markets, namely the Greater Montréal Area, Québec City and Gatineau, posted near-record levels of transactional activity in 2021: The GMA alone accounted for $8.7 billion, just behind Vancouver ($8.8 billion) and Toronto ($25.2 billion), the result of both pent-up demand in 2020 and a rebounding economy. This trend has persisted into 2022, with Montréal investment topping $4.4 billion as of June, just behind Toronto ($7.9 billion). Québec real estate investment across most asset classes continues to perform well and offers affordable opportunities compared to other Canadian markets.

If we look, for instance, at the performance of industrial assets: Across Canada, the changes in consumer demand generated a boom for e-commerce, 3PL and distribution real estate, driving up rents and applying downward pressure on vacancy. Vacancy remains lower in Vancouver (0.6%) and Toronto (0.8%); however, at 1.6% the GMA is not far behind. That said, GMA industrial rents average just $10.41 psf, compared to Toronto’s $14.27 psf and Vancouver’s $18.73 psf. Toronto industrial sells at an average of $300 psf while Montréal remains at a more conservative $200 psf. Thus, the GMA offers greater upside at a relatively more affordable cost.

A similar trend unfolds for multifamily investments. Québec is home to Canada’s largest rental market – Montréal – where 43.5% of the population choose to rent their primary residence. Since 2014, average rents have increased by 27%, representing an annual growth rate of 3.5%, a trend that remained true even through COVID. As of 2022, the return of in-person classes, international migration and tourism have driven vacancy down to 2.2% and rents now average $1,359. This is still well-below comparable markets across Canada, affording multifamily landlords with a unique opportunity to grow values in an established rental market: Toronto rents average $1,679 while Vancouver’s are $1,824.

And perhaps the most surprising development in the last two years has been the resilience of the retail sector: Daily needs and essential services performed at near-full occupancy throughout the pandemic. Furthermore, mall traffic and sales are up, pointing to an equilibrium between online and brick’n’mortar retail. With limited supply, landlords have begun reporting rental increases on renewals across all retail property types. Year-to-date, Québec has seen the most significant retail investment volumes across the country. Just in Montréal, $453 million has traded hands compared to Toronto’s $350 million.

New opportunities

Ultimately, given the overall performance of the Québec economy and the relative value of its real estate compared to its peers across the country, investors can benefit from excellent, risk-adjusted returns and long-term income growth, underpinned by solid macro-economic fundamentals.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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