MONTREAL — Polls show the Coalition Avenir Québec in position to coast to a second majority government Monday, but political observers say there is still plenty to watch for on election night — in particular the profound political shift reflected in the battle for official Opposition.
Thierry Giasson, director of the political science department at Université Laval, says CAQ Leader François Legault has maintained his lead despite lacklustre debate performances and a “catastrophic” campaign in which he struggled to defend his record.
“It wasn’t a good campaign for François Legault on pretty much every front,” he said in a recent interview. Legault was forced to apologize twice during the campaign: once for comments linking immigration to “violence” and “extremism,” and again after stating that the problems that led to an Atikamekw woman’s 2020 death at a Joliette hospital had been “resolved.”
His comments drew a rebuke from Joyce Echaquan’s husband and the late woman’s community, who noted that the racism and prejudice that contributed to her death are far from over.
Last week, Legault rebuked his immigration minister for claiming that 80 per cent of immigrants to the province “don’t work” or speak French, and the CAQ leader faced heat of his own for saying it would be “suicidal” to the Quebec nation if immigration levels were raised.
“They are lucky, because they started with an enormous lead,” Giasson said of the CAQ, “but it’s good (for them) that the campaign isn’t longer.”
Despite the campaign missteps, Legault is benefiting from a strong reserve of “sympathy and goodwill” that he cultivated during the last years of managing the pandemic, Giasson said, adding that Quebecers have tended to grant parties more than one mandate.
The CAQ leader is also being served by — and contributing to — the narrative that none of the other parties could effectively govern the province, Giasson said. “Maybe that’s the only success of François Legault’s campaign: to discredit the alternatives campaigning against him.”
On Friday, Legault told reporters that the ballot box question is, “Who has the best team to govern?” The premier said that while the five leaders grab the most media attention, the teams behind them are key.
“Ask yourselves tomorrow morning, who would be minister of finance? Who would be minister of health? … It takes a solid economic team to transform the Quebec economy into a green economy … to make the health system more efficient.”
Poll aggregator website QC125.com projects the possibility of a CAQ majority at over 99 per cent, even as the party’s polling numbers have slowly dropped below 40 per cent. The Liberals, Québec solidaire, the Conservatives and the Parti Québécois are all polling at around 14 to 17 per cent.
Geneviève Tellier, a political studies professor at the University of Ottawa, says there appears to be little appetite for change among the Quebec population. She attributes that in part to the fact that Legault’s government has been in power just four years, as well as to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The true option is, ‘Do we continue with the government that we know will be there if another major crisis occurs, or do we take a chance by going with the unknown?’” she said, noting that the other leaders are relatively new to their positions.
The experts agreed that the most interesting battle is the one for official Opposition in a province where, before Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec arrived on the scene in 2011, elections were for decades two-party battles between the Liberals and the PQ.
Of the four main parties seeking to unseat the CAQ, only the PQ has shown a noticeable rise in support in the polls since the election was called, reflecting what Tellier and Giasson described as a positive, ideas-focused campaign by leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Tellier said the most striking aspect of the campaign has been the fact that, for the first time, five parties have managed to gain significant public support — something she thinks is ultimately good for democracy.
“There are some left-wing parties, right-wing parties and so there are debates that force the voter to think about the different propositions and to position themselves,” she said.
With the issue of Quebec sovereignty largely taking a backseat, the campaign’s focus has shifted to inflation and the cost of living, as well as the environment, the experts said.
The Liberals, Coalition Avenir Québec and Conservative party have all promised substantial tax cuts if elected, while Québec solidaire has promised to suspend the sales tax on some essential items and raise the minimum wage.
Éric Montigny, a political science professor at Université Laval, said there could be some surprises on election night, even if a Legault victory appears all but certain. He said he’s especially interested in the fate of the once-dominant Liberals, whose impregnable strongholds on the Island of Montreal have become “houses of cards.”
Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade, Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime and the PQ’s Plamondon are all in tight races in their own ridings, while Québec solidaire’s election-night success depends on motivating young voters, who are traditionally more reluctant to cast ballots.
He said some ridings are also seeing tight three-way races, which makes them particularly hard to call. “When there are several competitive parties, there can be surprises,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 2, 2022.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
