July 1st was a crazy day, and Brennan, Mike, and Ian did an amazing job with the non-stop coverage. I had a bunch of family time I was busy with, on top of helping my brother moving. The guys were nice enough to save me the Nashville moves for when I had some time though, so that’s the one write up I did on the day.
You can find those thoughts here, but one thing it didn’t cover was the subsequent re-signing of Victor Hedman in Tampa. A lot of people are saying they gave the exact $8 million to Hedman instead of Steven Stamkos, and they’re drawing conclusions from that. In reality though, they took an extra million and gave it to Jake Guentzel this year. Hedman’s new deal doesn’t kick in until next year, so him and Stamkos were not fighting for money from the same pie. Hedman’s $8 million is actually going to be a lower cap percentage than he’s at this year, so he’s just keeping his own slice of the pie. It was an either-or with Stammer or Guentzel, and Hedman has nothing to do with it.
Stamkos makes his return to Tampa as a Predator on Oct 28th. Pencil him down for two goals and an assist.
I know a lot of people don’t like plus-minus as a stat much anymore, but it can be telling over the sample size of a season when used relative to teammates. Stamkos was worst on the team with a minus-21 mark, much worse than most of his frequent line-mates. The Bolts also got rid of Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeannot, Calvin De Haan, Alex Barre-Boulet, Tyler Motte, Matt Dumba, who mark seven of the bottom ten on the team in the stat. They are tightening up as an insulation measure for the current core.
Looking at the rest of the free agent signings from the first two days of free agency, there were over 230 contracts signed in total if you include the noteworthy re-signings on June 30th as well, so there’s a lot to sift through.
I was happy to see that I called the landing spot for Teuvo Teravainen.
31) Teuvo Teravainen – LW (UFA – $3.97M)
A few slower years for TT are mainly the result of him not getting the same PP deployment as his career-high 70+ point years. For a team that could use some PP help, he might be just the right guy at a reasonable price. Maybe a CHI return?
I think the Blackhawks overpaid him a bit, but then again who haven’t they overpaid over the last two years – that seems to be the whole idea. I do think he will be a great fit with Bedard, especially on the power play. Unfortunately for Lukas Reichel, he likely fills the exact role that Reichel would like to grow into. Three years isn’t forever, but it’s probably a year or two longer than Reichel owners would really like to see.
Here are my top- and bottom-five signings from the past few days.
The most recent signing is a great one in my eyes because it’s something the Senators had to do on a shorter-term deal – they already have too much term up the middle locked up in uncertainty with Josh Norris – and they managed to keep the AAV lower than expected. I was wondering whether Pinto might cost as much as five million, so to have him at under $4 million is a win that Ottawa needs, especially after giving away Mathieu Joseph and Jakob Chychrun.
Not even the biggest name signed by Nashville, but being a year younger than Stamkos while also being a recent 40-goal scorer. Usually that kind of production would cost a lot more, and with Marchy’s style of play, he should be able to keep up his production for at least a few years. The last year on the contract might be a burden, but if only one year out of five is a miss in free agency, and the other four are bargains, that’s worthwhile in free agency.
The Islanders have their top-line pretty much set at this point, but their middle-six gets a big boost with Duclair who finished last year with 15 points in 17 games with Tampa Bay. It was a whole lot better than the 27 points in 56 games with San Jose. He will finish somewhere between those two paces with the Isles. If it’s close to the Tampa pace then it’s absolute robbery, and worst case it comes out as a fair deal.
This just seems like such a fun fit, with so little risk. Skinner is one year removed from an 82-point season, and now gets to play a full season alongside either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. He only had 46 points in 74 games last season, but if that’s an absolute floor while playing middle-six minutes with Buffalo, then top-six with Edmonton has to be at least 60 points, with upside for 90 if he can click on the power play.
This isn’t a free-agent signing so it’s maybe cheating a little, but the Canadiens extending Slafkovsky for less than they’re paying Cole Caufield, covering Slaf’s entire prime as a player who looks to be growing his game exponentially is a scary consideration. He’s going to be worth that money this year while he is still playing out his entry level deal, and then next year when the cap rises again, Slaf is going to be underpaid starting game one of that new deal. Jack Hughes has my vote for best contract in the NHL right now, but this might become number two in very short order.
Bottom-five:
I’m not going to dwell on these as long and sow as much negativity, but the general thinking is that the downside on these deals massively out-weights the upside.
Locking up a 24-year-old defenceman who has paced for over 40-points the last two years while playing top-pairing minutes last season would be tough to mess up, but by putting aa higher cap hit on this deal with shorter term, Utah doesn’t win here regardless of how Durzi produces.
The Sabres are currently $20 million under the cap, and are paying Zucker and his 32 points last year $5 million. Add that to the $1.4 million from Jeff Skinner‘s buyout that counts against the cap, and two-thirds of Skinner’s salary is being pair for probably less than two-thirds of Skinner’s production. It makes the whole buyout make zero sense when they could have just waiting until next summer and had it hurt a lot less.
From a fantasy and general free agent point of view, I have aa very tough time giving non-elite players term past four or five years, and overpaying for career seasons. That’s what this deal feels like, and while Skjei might be good, he’s not elite. I would be surprised to get more than one season of 40+ points out of him in Nashville.
For a goalie who turns 37 on Friday, two years even feels like aa lot, especially when it seems like the workload really wore on Talbot as last season progressed. His overall numbers look good, but take away his first quarter of the season and he’s a .500 goalie with a 2.70 GAA and a .907 save percentage. Pretty average, and not what an average team needs in order to make a jump in the standings.
This feels like the forward version of Skjei, except Stephenson’s best seasons came from playing alongside Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, which was also not even last year. He’s a year removed from that now, and has shown he is probably just a 50-point centre without them. Seattle does not have anyone of their caliber (though I do have tons of time for Matty Beniers and Jared McCann). Hopefully he clicks here, because if not this one could get ugly fast.
Oh, and Chris Tanev‘s deal is also terrible, but the Leafs will find some way to turn it into a good thing because of the LTIR space they can play with, so it doesn’t really matter.
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With the top and bottom list done, we can take a peak at who else is left. Vladimir Tarasenko is definitely the most noteworthy name still unsigned, but there are a few other players that could be under-the radar acquisitions at a reasonable price now. Jack Roslovic, Daniel Sprong, Max Pacioretty, and Tyson Barrie seem to round out the rest of the names that could have fantasy relevance in standard leagues if they find the right fit. We’ll have some thoughts for you once these guys actually put a pen to paper.
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The NHL released their schedule for the upcoming season, which runs from Friday October 4th in Prague, to Thursday April 17th, where interestingly only Eastern Conference teams are playing. This likely sets up the Western Conference to begin the first round of the playoffs on Saturday April 19th with two or three matchups.
I haven’t had a chance to really dive into and analyze the schedule, but will have some more research into it once I have it transferred from the Frozentools schedule planner (which is already updated) to my own spreadsheet, where I can analyze it from a few different angles, especially with Fantasy H2H leagues in mind.
Andrew Santillo also does an excellent breakdown of the schedule including back to backs, off nights, and more for the Fantasy guide. You can pre-order that here.
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I remember seeing a tweet back in the spring about Nikita Gusev possibly considering another NHL attempt, and didn’t think much of it at the time. Now, however…
The Devils have apparently clarified that he is “just in town training” but sometimes coincidences have a little bit more to them. Regardless of whether it’s with the Devils or another NHL squad, there’s a significant chance that we see NHL games from Gusev again this season.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.
VANCOUVER – As the Major League Soccer season ticks down, Vanni Sartini wants his Vancouver Whitecaps to make a declaration — the team is ready to compete.
“The time of hiding ourselves, I think it’s over,” the coach said after the ‘Caps earned a 2-0 victory over the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday.
“We need to really say that we are here to try to be at the ball until the end and trying to shoot for the highest position. That doesn’t mean that we’re going to make it, but we have the quality to do it.”
With seven games left on their regular-season schedule, the ‘Caps (13-8-6) sit in fifth spot in the congested Western Conference, just two points out of fourth.
Saturday’s loss officially eliminated the last-place Earthquakes (5-21-2) from post-season action.
Vancouver has been on a hot streak since returning from the Leagues Cup break and is unbeaten (3-0-1) in its last four outings across all competitions. The team has not allowed a goal in those matches.
“It’s the fact that we play really well,” Sartini said of the clean sheets. “We have the ball a lot, we finish our attack most of the time in their box. So it’s really hard for the other team to attack us. And then when they attack us, in the rare times that they arrive in the final third, we’re very solid.”
Recent additions have bolstered the team’s ranks, including the club’s newest designated player, Stuart Armstrong. The 32-year-old Scottish midfielder scored his first MLS goal Saturday.
Three minutes after coming on as a substitute for Alessandro Schopf, Armstrong gave Vancouver a two-goal cushion in the 87th minute.
Midfielder Pedro Vite dished a short pass to ‘Caps captain Ryan Gauld, who tapped it toward Armstrong. The former Southampton FC player then blasted a shot into the top of the net for his first strike in a Whitecaps’ jersey.
He was mobbed by teammates in the corner of the field.
“I think everyone was happy. Also for the first goal, but also that it was an important three points,” said Armstrong, who signed with the ‘Caps on Sept. 3.
“It kind of felt a little bit like last week, when we had a lot of chances and we didn’t get the three points. So today, I think everyone was just relieved to have that two-goal cushion.”
Vancouver was the dominant team from the outset Saturday and did not relent, outshooting the visitors 19-5 and controlling 54.1 per cent of possession.
Fafa Picault also found the back of the net for Vancouver, while Gauld contributed a pair of assists.
Whitecaps goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka stopped both shots he faced to collect his seventh clean sheet of the year, while Daniel made nine saves for the Quakes.
Gauld and Picault teamed up in the 22nd minute when Gauld curled a cross in and the Haitian striker headed it down toward the net, only to see Daniel catch a piece of the shot with his forearm and redirect it out of harm’s way.
The duo connected again in the 35th minute on a Vancouver corner. Gauld swung a ball in and Picault jumped up from the pack to send a glancing header in past Daniel for his ninth MLS goal of the season.
San Jose briefly appeared to level the score in the 68th minute when an unmarked Ousseni Bouda collected the ball, froze Takaoka and tapped a shot into the Vancouver net. An official quickly raised the offside flag and waved off the tally.
Daniel kept San Jose’s deficit to a single goal with a pair of solid stops in the 82nd minute.
First, the Brazilian ‘keeper dove sideways on his line to tip away a bomb from Alessandro Schopf. He was tested again on the ensuing corner and jumped up to send a header from Picault over the crossbar.
“I think we created a lot of chances again,” Gauld said.
“We probably should have put the game out of their reach sooner. But we’d be more worried if we weren’t creating the chances. Three clean sheets in a row in the league, I think it’s a big thing for us. And it gives us a good platform to go forward.”
NOTES
Vancouver played without leading scorer Brian White for a third consecutive game as the American striker works his way back from a concussion. … Gauld’s second assist marked his 15th goal contribution (six goals, nine assists) in his last 15 Whitecaps games across all competitions. … An announced crowd of 21,309 took in the game at B.C. Place.
UP NEXT
The Whitecaps kick off a two-game road swing Wednesday against the Houston Dynamo. The Earthquakes host the Seattle Sounders the same night.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.
MANCHESTER, England (AP) — Not good enough. That was Arne Slot’s verdict after his first defeat as Liverpool manager on Saturday.
A shock 1-0 loss at home to Nottingham Forest in the English Premier League ended Slot’s perfect record since succeeding Jurgen Klopp at Anfield at the end of last season.
“We had a lot of ball possession but only managed to create three (or) four quite good chances, so that is by far not enough if you have so much ball possession,” said the Dutchman, who suggested his team should not be losing to the likes of Forest.
“If you lose a home game it’s always a setback, especially if you face a team … we never know, maybe they will go all the way to fight for Champions League tickets, but normally this team is not ending up in the top 10, so if you lose a game against them that’s a big disappointment.”
Slot won his first three games in charge, including a memorable 3-0 victory against Manchester United before the international break.
But that run came to an end after Callum Hudson-Odoi struck in the 72nd with a curling effort from the edge of the box and beyond goalkeeper Alisson.
Liverpool’s defeat leaves Manchester City as the only team with a 100% record in the league after a 2-1 win against Brentford kept the defending champion at the top of the table.
United won at Southampton 3-0 to end its two-game losing streak.
Unstoppable Haaland
Erling Haaland moved to 99 goals for City after scoring twice against Brentford.
The Norwegian’s double came after Yoane Wissa fired Brentford ahead with just 22 seconds on the clock.
Haaland scored his 98th and 99th goals in his 103rd City appearance in all competitions. And he was the width of the post away from his third consecutive hat trick after trebles against Ipswich and West Ham.
“He’s been really, really good. Yeah, I would say he’s the best (he’s been), but it’s only four fixtures (this season),” City manager Pep Guardiola said.
Haaland, who has been nominated for the Ballon d’Or, has nine goals in four league games. He has topped the league scoring charts in each of his two seasons at City since joining from Borussia Dortmund in 2022 for $63 million.
Haaland’s first goal after 19 minutes evened the game following Wissa’s opener, which stunned the Etihad Stadium crowd. Haaland turned and swept a shot past goalkeeper Mark Flekken after a slight deflection off Ethan Pinnock.
He was then too strong for Pinnock when shaking off the defender and running through for his second in the 32nd.
He was inches away in the 81st; the shot came back off the post after beating the keeper.
Rashford snaps run
Marcus Rashford snapped a 12-game barren run in front of goal as United beat Southampton.
Rashford doubled United’s lead at Saint Mary’s after Matthijs de Ligt’s scored his first for the club. Substitute Alejandro Garnacho scored a third in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
The win came after back-to-back defeats for United.
Rashford hadn’t scored since March in United’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinals. He curled in a shot from the edge of the area to put Erik ten Hag’s team 2-0 up at Southampton in the 41st minute.
Ten Hag said it could be a turning point for the forward.
“For every striker, they want to be on the scoring list. Once the first is in, more is coming. Like a ketchup bottle, once it’s going, it’s coming more,” he said.
De Ligt, who joined United from Bayern Munich in the offseason, headed in from Bruno Fernandes’ cross in the 35th.
It could have been a different story if Cameron Archer converted a penalty for Southampton in the 33rd. Instead, his effort was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.
Newly promoted Southampton was reduced to 10 men when Jack Stephens was sent off in the 79th for a high challenge on Garnacho.
Villa comeback
After three straight defeats to start the league, Everton looked set for its first win when leading Aston Villa 2-0.
Goals from Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin put Sean Dyche’s team in control until Ollie Watkins struck twice to even the game.
Jhon Duran completed Villa’s comeback and sealed a 3-2 win in the 76th to leave Everton rooted to the bottom of the table and the only top flight team without a point.
Late drama
Jean-Philippe Mateta converted a stoppage time penalty to salvage a 2-2 draw for Crystal Palace against Leicester.
Leicester led 2-0 at Selhurst Park after goals from Jamie Vardy and Stephy Mavididi.
But Mateta sparked Palace’s response with a goal in the 47th, a minute after Mavididi doubled Leicester’s advantage.
Conor Coady fouled Ismaili Sarr in the box right near fulltime and Mateta was cool enough to convert.
West Ham left it even later to salvage a point in a 1-1 draw at Fulham.
Danny Ings struck in the fifth minute of added time after Raul Jimenez’s goal looked like earning Fulham the win.
Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler, the manager of the month for August, was frustrated as his team was held to 0-0 at home by Ipswich.
CLEVELAND (AP) — Restricted free agent forward Isaac Okoro has agreed to re-sign with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a three-year contract, a person familiar with the negotiations told The Associated Press on Saturday.
Okoro’s new deal is worth $38 million, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the contract has not been signed or announced by the team.
ESPN.com first reported the agreement, citing Okoro’s representation.
The fifth overall pick in the 2020 NBA draft, Okoro is Cleveland’s best perimeter defender, often drawing the assignment of guarding the opponent’s top scorer. Okoro also has worked to improve his offensive game.
The 23-year-old averaged 9.4 points and 3.0 rebounds in 69 games — 42 starts — last season for the Cavs, who beat Orlando in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to eventual champion Boston.
Okoro shot a career-best 39% on 3-pointers, forcing teams to come out and guard him.
His agreement caps an extraordinarily busy summer for the Cavs that began with coach J.B. Bickerstaff being fired and replaced by Kenny Atkinson. All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell signed a three-year, $150 million extension in July, ending months of speculation that he wanted out of Cleveland.
Also, power forward Evan Mobley signed a five-year, $224 deal and center Jarrett Allen signed a three-year, $91 million extension.
