There was a very significant trade on Monday as Tyler Toffoli was traded to the Calgary Flames. Going the other way is Tyler Pitlick, a first-round pick, a fifth-round pick, and prospect Emil Heineman. His Dobber Prospects profile can be viewed here.
Dobber wrote about the trade yesterday and readers can check out his column here.
For my opinion, while I can see Toffoli going to the top PP unit, there’s one thing that’s nagging in the back of my head. It’s the fact that Sean Monahan has been on the top unit basically all season, with the team rarely using Andrew Mangiapane instead. I don’t understand why Toffoli would get pushed right to the top PP unit – especially when this very coach infrequently used him on the top power play in Los Angeles – with Mangiapane never getting an extended look. Maybe they do just go right to the new option but as someone with Bread Boy on a couple fantasy rosters, it would be a tough pill to swallow.
As the resident Habs fan, this feels like a light return. Toffoli’s 82-game pace this year is 20 goals and nearly 60 points in a season where his team is last in goals scored per minute. Before that, he had 34 goals in 62 regular season games between Vancouver and Montreal. He is a great offensive player and is no slouch defensively. He is also signed for two more years at just $4.25M per season. Pitlick is for salary purposes and the fifth-round pick doesn’t have much value. This is basically 2 ½ years of Toffoli at a well-below-market contract for a late first rounder and a non-top prospect. I would have rather Montreal eat some salary, tell the Flames to keep the prospect and picks, and get a better prospect. Draft capital is great but I’ve also been a Habs fan long enough to not get excited about them stocking draft picks. Also, what was the rush to do this deal? Do they think this is the absolute most they could ever get for him in the next 13 months? If so, I guess it’s fine. I do think this seems a bit fast to pull a deal like this together.
He should thrive in Calgary, fantasy-wise. He should be rostered in every league, too. He is going to look great on that second line. I do wonder if this means the end of the Flames tenure for one of Gaudreau or Tkachuk this summer?
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Just a reminder that coming out of the All-Star break, the league has new COVID protocols. Everyone was tested once coming back to their teams following the ASG, but now the only players being tested are either unvaccinated or symptomatic. So, if we see players hit the COVID list – as we saw recently with Semyon Varlamov – they are not missing games despite feeling 100% fine. We do need to keep an eye on players that hit the list and how they perform when they return.
Also to be mentioned is that Jack Eichel was skating on the top line in practice on Monday, as well as the top PP unit. One is going on the injured reserve and one is coming off, with Eichel set to make his debut on Wednesday night against Colorado.
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It has been several weeks since the holiday break and the significance of that is it gives us a decent sample size to look back on. In that span, only one team has played fewer than 15 games (Minnesota, 13) and nearly half the league (15/32 teams) has played at least 18 games. This particular time frame also includes most teams getting past their COVID issues. There have continued to be some players missing time across the league, and that will persist, but the new protocols mean we’re not likely to see a mess like that again this season.
Regardless, I thought it’d be worth to look back on what’s happened since the Christmas break, both at the player- and team-level. Here are some things that stood out to me. Stats from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.
Crown ‘Em
In this span, four of the five teams that lead the league in expected goal share (xGF%) at 5-on-5 are Calgary, Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Not sure there’s a surprise in there. The surprise is the fifth team: Los Angeles. They are second in the league, behind only the Flames, in xGF% over their last 17 games. They are 10-5-2 in that span and are sitting in a playoff spot as of early Monday night.
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It really has been a team effort. Each of the first, second, and fourth lines are all sitting with an expected goal share of at least 55% since Christmas. The second line, in particular, has been great. They are controlling over 60% of the expected goal share, scoring roughly four goals per 60 minutes.
Phillip Danault probably deserves a lot of credit here. He came over from Montreal and instantly gave this team a great second line, along with Viktor Arvidsson. Danault leads the team in points per 60 minutest this year at 5-on-5, which might make him enticing for fantasy owners. The problem remains the same as it was in Montreal though: lack of power-play production. He is stuck on the second PP unit for the Kings, and that’s led to one whole PPP on the season. He is also hitting less than he has in recent seasons, a trade-off for shooting more, it seems.
This all has to be exciting for Kings fans. They have one of the deepest prospect pools in hockey and the NHL roster seems to have been reconfigured after a few down years. It just may not be a great spot for fantasy production because all the usual suspects are likely rostered already, and everyone else has a role to play.
Blue Monday
At the other end of that spectrum is the St. Louis Blues. The only teams with a worse expected goal share since the holiday break than the Blues are the Canadiens, Sabres, and Rangers. What is keeping them afloat for now is the team is shooting over 12% at 5-on-5. A team cannot sustain anywhere close to that for a season, so that will decline the rest of the way. Unless this team starts generating a lot more offence – 26th in expected goals for per 60 minutes – then when the shooting percentage dries up, so will the wins.
This is a problem that is persisting across the entire team. It’s tough to say “it’s this guy’s fault” or whatever when all 13 regular forwards are below 47.5% expected goal share over the team’s last 15 games. There are some players playing extremely poorly – Brayden Schenn has good point totals but that’s also a huge percentage bender – but it does seem like everything is going wrong for this team.
Whatever the issues are, they need to figure them out fast. They are nowhere near a certainty for the postseason and they can’t relying on 12% 5-on-5 shooting for 36 more games.
Jack’s Hugh-ge Shot Rate
Quite simply, Hughes has to be one of the more interesting players in the NHL. All his micro-stats scream Perennial All-Star but he has just 59 points in his last 85 regular season games. It is one thing to have wonderful micro-stats, but if they don’t translate to monster fantasy success, we don’t care very much, do we?
Well, one thing he’s doing a lot more of lately is shooting. Since the holidays, he’s top-20 among all forwards in shot rate per 60 minutes. There are still a lot of pieces that need to come together for him to take the next step in the fantasy game, like Alexander Holtz showing up next year and starts scoring. A line of Holtz-Hughes-Bratt could be very good for Hughes’ fantasy profile.
But those are the pieces that need to come together for fantasy stardom: he needs to be an elite player (he probably is), he needs an excellent shot rate (he will if this persists), and he needs great line mates. The profile is starting to come together.
Not Dunn Shooting
On the topic of shooting, Vince Dunn has seen his own shot rate jump of late. He has 33 shots in his last 15 games since the calendar turned to 2022, and is top-10 in the league among all defencemen in shot attempts per 60 minutes as well. That per-game rate might not seem like a lot, but this guy has never had a season with 2+ shots per game and that’s unlikely to be the case again this year because he had a very slow start. If he can keep up anywhere near this shot rate, though, this changes his fantasy profile.
The second note here being that Dunn had briefly, very briefly, taken over the top PP unit for Mark Giordano before getting the boot again. My guess is the Kraken are more concerned with pumping Giordano’s trade value right now, and that’s going to mean Dunn’s role takes a step back again.
But it’s not long until the trade deadline. It is under five weeks, in fact, and that means it may only be another month of minimal fantasy value for Dunn. He is clearly next in line whenever Giordano does get traded, and that’ll be a boost to his fantasy profile. He is also averaging nearly 21 minutes a night in February, the most TOI in any month this season (heading into Monday night’s contest against Toronto). If he can keep this upswing going, he could be valuable for the fantasy playoff run in late March through mid-April.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.
The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.
Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.
There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.
Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.
But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.
The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”
The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.
Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.
Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.
Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.
Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.
“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”
“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.
Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.
Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.
The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.
Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.
Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.
Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.
Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.
Canada Roster
Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).
Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).
Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).
Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
