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Toronto Goaltending, Buy-Low Players, Verhaeghe, Montour and more … (Nov. 07)

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The Leafs are in goaltending trouble, as we had expected would happen this season. Matt Murray is sidelined, though is set to return likely this week. And now Ilya Samsonov is out. Being tight against the cap, Toronto has no Plan B. Erik Kallgren has been putting up backup-type numbers, but he’s really not more than a No.3. However, Toronto being such a strong team, he is going to get his share of wins. And all this team cares about is how the goaltending looks in April.

Plan C is Keith Petruzzelli, a Detroit draft pick who had yet to sign an NHL contract despite being drafted high (third round in 2017) and posting decent numbers at the college level. He has had a strong season in six games with the Marlies and is still only 23. In keeper leagues, if push comes to shove, I probably prefer Petruzzelli’s longer-term outlook than Kallgren’s. This contract was made possible because Washington was kind enough to claim Nicolas Aube-Kubel off waivers. What that means is that the Leafs dropped from the maximum 50 contracts, down to 49 contracts – allowing them to sign Petruzzelli instead of an Emergency Backup.

That being said, Kallgren posted a strong outing Sunday, stopping 29 of 30. I think it’s possible that Murray starts Tuesday against Vegas, and if he doesn’t then I assume Kallgren will go again. But I doubt this is the last time Murray gets hurt. And next time it happens, I’m very curious to see Petruzzelli get a look. Petruzzelli backed up Kallgren Sunday.

The Leafs are waking up, at least in terms of offense, so the regular season goaltending can be on the weaker side and still get the W’s. Mitch Marner is on a six-game point streak, while William Nylander has picked a point in all but two of the games so far this season. Auston Matthews has 11 points in his last nine games.

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Stefan Noesen is a former top prospect who was drafted 21st overall in 2011. He has finally figured out the pro game to the point of dominating. But it’s too late? He’s 29 now, which is usually too late to forge a regular-duty NHL career. Last season he had 85 points in 70 AHL games, including 48 goals (and 112 PIM). His NHL ice time is being held down (averaging 10:40 per game), but his name is starting to crop up on the Daily Fantasy (DFS) tools when I run them. He’s a cheap option and so far he’s been productive. In 11 games with minimal ice time he has six points and 27 SOG. Four of his points have come on the power play. For what it’s worth, his last four games have seen his ice time closer to 12 minutes, which is trending in the right direction.

But if you are wondering what is holding Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis back – it’s that Noesen is taking their power-play time. The second PP unit for Carolina has yet to score.

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Still deeply regret it.

And as I watched him score in overtime to give him 15 points in 12 games, I cringed. His 5on5 S% is still high at 12.0, but he’s done enough to remain on that top line. That should be good enough to ensure he tops his career high of 46 points and probably push 60. This is his BT season, so in hindsight – what was I thinking?

Your ‘buy low’ window on Moritz Seider is rapidly closing, if it hasn’t closed already. With two points Sunday, Seider has four in his last four games. He had one point in eight games before that.

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Jacob Trouba‘s production is slightly below expectation, but he has been a huge fantasy asset nonetheless, posting Hits and BLKS at career-high rates. His 3.23 Hits per game tops the 2.92 he averaged in 2020-21. His 2.92 BLKS per game is higher than the 2.21 he averaged in 2020-21 and his 38 BLKS sit fourth in the league. He had five Hits and six BLKS on Sunday.

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After going three games without a point, Brandon Montour had himself a four-point game on Sunday. Montour has played both special teams heavily with Aaron Ekblad sidelined. In the last eight games, the lowest ice time that Montour has seen is 25:15, which happened Sunday against the Ducks. That’s massive. He’s always had this potential, but now at 28 we’re finally seeing it – and only because of the Ekblad injury. It’s an unsustainable pace, but all the same he is showing that he can put big points on the board. That will earn him a lot of leeway even after Ekblad returns.

Montour’s emergence has cost Gustav Forsling some points. The two are defense partners and it seems like Montour is the one who gets the ‘go’ sign while Forsling holds back. Forsling is still a fairly safe 40-point player, I feel. But any upside for 50 is in jeopardy as long as this arrangement holds.

Carter Verhaeghe began the campaign pointless in three games. Since then he has 13 in his last 10, including multi-point efforts in four of his last five games. This is his BT season, so don’t be surprised if he continues to flirt with a point-per-game.

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Last week I traded Seth Jones for Noah Hanifin in one of my dynasty leagues. I knew the other guy really liked Hanifin, owning him since he was drafted. I started liking him after he ended last season with 20 points in 20 games. Looking deeper at the numbers, everything looked good – just bad luck, really. So I wanted to take advantage and buy low. Hanifin picked up his first point on Saturday.

Other players worth grabbing as ‘buy lows’ in keeper leagues:

Ryan O’Reilly (zero points in nine games), 2.9 5on5 S% and his linemate Jordan Kyrou

Kailer Yamamoto (three points in 11 games). His 5on5 S% doesn’t indicate a market correction, but he is in his BT season and about to hit that 200-game mark. He still gets consistent ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

Damon Severson (two points in 12 games). No, his slow start is not because Dougie Hamilton is back. Hamilton was back for the last 20 games or so last season and Severson was dynamite – better than Hamilton, in fact. Severson’s PPTOI is down, so that’s a partial reason. But at this juncture it means about two points. The real reason for the slow start? He’s been handcuffed at even strength. His defense partner has been Brendan Smith. May as well tie an anchor to Severson’s legs. Last season, Severson flourished with Ryan Graves. We’re starting to see signs that the Smith experiment alongside Severson is ending, as Severson lined up with Jonas Siegenthaler.

Sam Reinhart picked up a pair of points on Sunday to give him five on the season – both were goals, his first and second of the campaign. He had a huge season last year playing mostly with Anton Lundell. Well, Reinhart has only played maybe 15% of his ES shifts with Lundell so far. He was put with Lundell Sunday and I have a feeling those two will remain a pairing going forward – even though the lines shuffled around due to the Matthew Tkachuk suspension.

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Ontario DFS fans – I’ve just discovered a DFS company that operates in the province. OwnersBox started out as a weekly fantasy site (so I guess…WFS?) but expanded to the DFS format and maintain operations in Ontario. You can visit them here, and you can have a free DFS play if you use promo code “DOBBER”.

We have made OwnersBox our fourth DFS company that we provide tools for with our DFS subscription (along with the Big 3 that you know well). For $99.99 you get access for the full season and playoffs to these tools for four big DFS sites – including our patented hot/cold and weighted average formulas that optimize your lineups, as well as our stack generator (which helps you stack your DFS lineup if you want to focus on a certain team). You can get the subscription here.

So far I have used this tool to enter 17 contests and have won money nine times, and am up 80% in terms of real cash. I started playing last Wednesday. I don’t expect this kind of torrid pace to continue, but at this point I’m quite confident that I’ll win more than I lose. I do occasionally swap out a suggested player for a player I like better – sometimes it works, one time it most certainly didn’t. But yes, definitely add brain power to what the tool provides, and you’ll do fine.

By the way – I won money in two out of three contests Sunday…and the one I didn’t win was because Eric Daoust (who is the programmer who built those DFS tools on Frozen Tools) was in the same contest and beat me out because we both used the same tools!

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Update on my meeting with Ontario’s Minister of Finance that was supposed to take place last Friday. He was unfortunately out of town on Friday and they contacted me early last week to offer a Zoom meeting. I prefer an in-person meet, so we rescheduled for December 2. This meeting will be to discuss the benefits of moving DFS out of the Sports Gambling set of laws, and instead give it its own guidelines and free structure. It’s just crazy that we had DFS in Ontario for 10 years, yet as soon as sports gambling becomes legal the “always legal” DFS has to pull up stakes and flee the province. DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo have all pulled their DFS games.

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See you next Monday.

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Need to Know: Bruins at Maple Leafs | Game 3 | Boston Bruins – NHL.com

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Familiar Territory

James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.

“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”

van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.

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“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.

“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”

Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.

“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”

van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.

“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. PanthersLightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. BruinsMaple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden KnightsStars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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