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Ranks of long-term unemployed swell even as economy added 84000 jobs in October – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News

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Jordan Press, The Canadian Press


Published Friday, November 6, 2020 5:21AM EST


Last Updated Friday, November 6, 2020 4:02PM EST

OTTAWA – Nearly one-quarter of unemployed Canadians have been without work for six months or more, with Statistics Canada reporting a spike in their numbers in October even as the economy eked out another month of overall job growth.

Almost 450,000 were considered long-term unemployed last month, meaning they had been without a job for 27 weeks or more, with their ranks swelling by 79,000 in September and then 151,000 more in October.

Those unemployed long-term now make up 24.8 per cent of Canada’s total, who numbered 1.8 million in October as the wave of short-term layoffs in March in April extended into the fall.

The jumps in September and October are the sharpest over more than 40 years of comparable data, and have pushed long-term unemployment beyond what it was just over a decade ago during the global financial crisis.

More men than women have been out of work for an extended period, and younger workers make up a larger share of the ranks of the country’s long-term unemployed than they did in the last recession.

Counting those who want to work but didn’t look for a job, a group not included in official unemployment figures, there are about 1.27 million Canadians who have been jobless for at least half a year, down from the 1.3 million in September.

“And they will continue to come down,” said Mikal Skuterud, a labour economist from the University of Waterloo, who has closely tracked long-term joblessness during the pandemic.

The worry, he said, is the drop down is not going be as sharp as the rise that it might resemble Nike’s famous swoosh logo.

The longer those people are out of work, the more difficult it will be for them to find a new job. Those that do are likely to earn less than before.

Some older workers may simply decide to retire. Younger workers who just got their first job or had just established themselves in the workforce, will have to find new work as part of a reshuffling that could take years to play out.

“These kind of shocks have long-term, maybe even scarring, permanent effects,” Skuterud said. “Some segment of the workforce in Canada might be lost permanently.”

Policymakers are hoping to avoid that.

The federal Liberals have vowed to create one million jobs, with recently reshuffled infrastructure spending accounting for 60,000 of that. As for the remainder, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would only say Friday the government “looking at the investments we need to make in order to do that.”

“We have been there for Canadians and we will continue to because many, many Canadians have lost their jobs because of COVID-19. and are continuing to struggle,” he said.

Leah Nord, senior director of workforce strategies for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said governments need to roll out skills training programs, given the jobless figures, and do so soon.

“Lifelong learning, upskilling and reskilling were important before the pandemic, but the pandemic I would say has really accelerated the need for this,” she said.

The pace of job growth slowed in October as the economy added 83,600 jobs in the month. Overall gains were the smallest since economies were allowed to reopen earlier this year, noted TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam.

The unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9 per cent compared with nine per cent in September.

That would have risen to 11.3 per cent had it included in calculations the 540,000 Canadians who wanted to work but didn’t search for a job.

Most of the gains were in full-time work, with core-aged women benefiting the most to bring their unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent, the lowest among the major demographic groups tracked by Statistics Canada.

Overall gains might have been higher if not for a drop of 48,000 jobs in the accommodation and food services industry, largely in Quebec, Statistics Canada said.

“We saw Canadian employment growth ease off the gas, but thankfully, it didn’t go fully in reverse,” said Brendon Bernard, an economist with job-posting site Indeed. “What happened really was a tug-of-war between sectors.”

More Canadians were also working at home in October, coinciding with a rise in case counts of COVID-19, which prompted new rounds of restrictions in Ontario and Quebec.

Trudeau warned Friday about rolling back public health restrictions too quickly and potentially forcing widespread lockdowns anew like in the U.K., which would set back the pace of an economic recovery.

Employment readings are destined to ebb and flow over the coming months as governments try to to contain the pandemic, CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes said in a note.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2020.

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Statistics Canada to say today how country's economy fared in third quarter of 2020 – Humboldt Journal

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OTTAWA — The national statistics office will say this morning how much Canada’s domestic economy bounced back in the third quarter of the year.

The Canadian economy suffered its worst three-month stretch on record in the second quarter as the economy came to a near halt in April before starting to recover in May and June.

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Expressed at an annualized rate, real gross domestic product fell 38.7 per cent in the second quarter, the worst posting on record.

The rebound is expected to be equally sharp in the ensuing three-month stretch over July, August and September.

Financial data firm Refinitiv says the average economist estimate is for an annualized growth rate of 47.6 per cent for the quarter.

The firm also says the average economist estimate is for a 0.9 per cent increase in real GDP for September, which Statistics Canada will also unveil this morning.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 1, 2020.

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Statistics Canada to say today how country's economy fared in third quarter of 2020 – CKPGToday.ca

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By Canadian Press

Dec 1, 2020 1:08 AM

OTTAWA — The national statistics office will say this morning how much Canada’s domestic economy bounced back in the third quarter of the year.

The Canadian economy suffered its worst three-month stretch on record in the second quarter as the economy came to a near halt in April before starting to recover in May and June.

Expressed at an annualized rate, real gross domestic product fell 38.7 per cent in the second quarter, the worst posting on record.

The rebound is expected to be equally sharp in the ensuing three-month stretch over July, August and September.

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Powell Sees Hope and Uncertainties for Economy in Vaccines – Yahoo Canada Finance

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The Canadian Press

Top secret: Biden gets access to President’s Daily Brief

WILMINGTON, Del. — Joe Biden has had his first look as president-elect at the President’s Daily Brief, a top secret summary of U.S. intelligence and world events — a document former first lady Michelle Obama has called “The Death, Destruction, and Horrible Things Book.”
Biden has already had eyes on different iterations of the so-called PDB, which is tailored to the way each president likes to absorb information.
More than a decade ago, Biden read President George W. Bush’s PDB during Biden’s transition into the vice presidency. After that, he read President Barack Obama’s PDB for eight years. Beginning Monday, after a four-year break, he’s reading President Donald Trump’s PDB.
“The briefers almost certainly will be asking Biden what he prefers in terms of format and style,” said David Priess, author of “The President’s Book of Secrets,” a history of the PDB. “At a minimum, they’re seeing what seems to resonate most with him so that when they make the book his book, they can tailor it to him.”
Obama’s PDB was a 10- to 15-page document tucked in a leather binder, which he found waiting for him on the breakfast table. Later in his presidency, he liked reading the ultra-secret intelligence brief on a secured iPad.
“Michelle called it “The Death, Destruction, and Horrible Things Book,” Obama wrote in his recently released book, ”A Promised Land.”
“On a given day, I might read about terrorist cells in Somalia or unrest in Iraq or the fact that the Chinese or Russians were developing new weapons systems,” Obama wrote. “Nearly always, there was mention of potential terrorist plots, no matter how vague, thinly sourced, or unactionable — a form of due diligence on the part of the intelligence community, meant to avoid the kind of second-guessing that had transpired after 9-11.”
From now until Inauguration Day, Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris will be reading the PDB crafted for Trump, who had delayed giving Biden and Harris access to it as he contests the outcome of the election.
Trump, who prefers absorbing information in visual ways, likes short texts and graphics.
“Trump himself said during his campaign and during the transition in 2016 that he did not like reading long documents — that he preferred bullet points,” said Priess, who has not seen any of Trump’s PDBs. “It probably has charts, tables, graphs — things like that. Not the parody that people make that it’s like a cartoon book … but something that is more visual. But we don’t know for sure.”
The written brief, which Trump doesn’t always read, often is followed by a verbal briefing with an intelligence official, although those oral briefings stopped at least for a time in October. Priess said he didn’t know why they stopped or if they had resumed, but that they stopped at a time when Trump was spending much of his time on the campaign trail.
Before Trump authorized Biden to get the PDB as president-elect, Biden was given some intelligence background briefings as a candidate. But they were more general and did not include the nation’s top secrets.
The other thing that a president-elect gets is a briefing “on CIA’s covert actions,” former acting CIA director Mike Morell said at an event hosted by the Center for Presidential Transition based in Washington. “It’s important for the president-elect to get this briefing … because on Inauguration Day, these covert actions will become the new president’s.”
In 1961, President John F. Kennedy read his first brief while sitting on the diving board of a swimming pool at his retreat in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. President Lyndon Johnson liked to read his brief in the afternoon. President Richard Nixon relied on his national security adviser Henry Kissinger to peruse the briefs and tell him what he thought the president should know.
As the laborious recount of ballots dragged on in 2000, President Bill Clinton decided that then-Gov. George W. Bush should get access to his PDB just in case he was the winner. Bush became was the first incoming president to read it before he was president-elect.
Biden is getting the PDB later than usual because of Trump’s ongoing protest of the election results. Trump approved the briefings for Biden last Tuesday, a day after his administration approved the formal transition process to his successor.
When Biden walks into the Oval Office, he’ll be inheriting nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, changing political dynamics in the Middle East, the winding down of America’s presence in Afghanistan and rising competition from China.
Biden had access to the PDB in Wilmington, Delaware. Harris received it in a secure room at the Commerce Department, where the presidential transition offices are located.
Even Biden, who has decades of experience in foreign policy, could be the victim of an old political adage that no matter how informed he thinks he is, he could learn otherwise from the PDB.
Former CIA Director Michael Hayden wrote in his book that revelations and new insight found in the PDB are known as “aw s—” moments. As in: “Aw s—,” he wrote, “wish we hadn’t said that during that campaign stop in Buffalo.”
___
Riechmann reported from Washington.

Deb Riechmann And Zeke Miller, The Associated Press

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