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Rate cut bets melt as vaccines boost economy hopes – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) – Expectations of interest rate cuts in some of the world’s biggest economies have melted within the space of a month on hopes a successful coronavirus vaccine will fuel a growth bounceback next year.

As recently as Oct. 20, markets were pricing rate cuts of up to 25 basis points from leading central banks by next autumn as the resurgent pandemic threatened a double-dip recession.

But encouraging updates on vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna have tempered that gloom, a mood reflected in a rise in long-dated government bond yields and a lower chance of rate cuts, according to Berenberg economist Florian Hense.

“The success of vaccine trials has been a game-changer – there’s now a realistic possibility that a large share of the population of most advanced economies will receive a vaccine by mid-2021, which in turn will allow restrictions on activity and movement to be lifted and bring forward the economic recovery,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.

Between Nov. 5-9, a period when it became clear Democrat Joe Biden had won the U.S. election and Pfizer announced its vaccine news, eurodollar futures 0#ED:>, which track short-term U.S. rate expectations, flipped to reflect expectations of 10 bps in rate hikes by Sept 2022.

Just the previous week, markets were predicting no changes. Futures now expect U.S. rates at 0.50% by September 2023, from 0.25% forecast a month previously.

At the ECB where rates are already minus 0.5%, a nine bps cut was expected by September 2021 but that is now slashed to only five bps.

The biggest change is in the United Kingdom which has fared especially badly in the pandemic and could be one of the biggest beneficiaries from a vaccine.

Markets now expect a cumulative five bps in cuts from the Bank of England up to August 2021, down from 15 bps of reductions priced last month when the BOE looked likely to take borrowing costs negative by March.

Countries whose fortunes are more tied to China have also seen rate cut expectations fall as data indicated a strong recovery. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates by around 2 bps over the next year compared to nearly 6 bps last month.

Graphic – Rate cuts: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jbyvremwope/rate%20cuts.JPG

(Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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‘No plan’ for economy will work without more access to COVID-19 tests, vaccines: O’Toole – Global News

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Canada will not see economic stability until there is wide access to rapid tests and vaccines for the novel coronavirus, Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole says.

O’Toole made the remarks during a press conference Sunday morning.

“There is no plan for the economy if we don’t have rapid testing and vaccines as swiftly as possible,” he told reporters.

Read more:
Canada ‘in the top 5’ on list to receive coronavirus vaccines 1st: minister

O’Toole’s comments come as the federal Liberal government prepares to release a fall economic update on Monday.

The government has not tabled a budget for this fiscal year, but in July delivered what it called a “fiscal snapshot” that estimated the deficit was heading for a record of $343.2 billion.

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O’Toole said there can’t be a “full economy, a growing economy, people working, people being productive without the tools to keep that happening in a pandemic.

“Those two tools are rapid tests and a vaccine,” he said.

O’Toole said Canada is “months behind our allies” when it comes to the large-scale rollout and use of rapid COVID-19 tests.

Health Canada has approved more than three dozen different tests for COVID-19, but only six of them are “point-of-care” versions more commonly referred to as rapid tests.

[ Sign up for our Health IQ newsletter for the latest coronavirus updates ]

Millions of rapid tests have been delivered to the provinces, however, health officials have been slow to utilize them as questions about best use and reliability remain unanswered.


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Coronavirus: LeBlanc says Canada is in top five to get COVID-19 vaccine


Coronavirus: LeBlanc says Canada is in top five to get COVID-19 vaccine

O’Toole also said it appears as though Canada will be “months behind our allies on vaccines.”

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“These are critical tools,” he said. “The vaccine is the hope we’re all looking for.”

Canada has signed contracts to secure 400 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, however, the federal government says only six million of those doses — enough to vaccinate three million people — will be in the country by early January for distribution once approved by Health Canada.

However, both the United States and Britain have said they expect to have millions of vaccine doses by next month and expect to have larger portions of their populations inoculated more quickly.

Read more:
Coronavirus cases are soaring but Trudeau’s approval ratings hold steady: Ipsos

O’Toole said Canadians are going to be “rightly frustrated” when other countries are “rolling out millions of doses” of COVID-19 vaccines before Canada.

“I hate to see us trailing,” O’Toole said. “I don’t compare ourselves to the worst response, I want Canada’s response to be the best, that’s why I want to see a plan and I want to see a plan for the economy — we need to get people working.”


Click to play video 'Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine'



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Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine


Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine

O’Toole is not the only one who appears to be frustrated. In an interview with The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said it is “troubling” that only a small segment of the Canadian population could be vaccinated immediately.

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Moe said the federal government communicated to the country’s premiers how many doses they would receive, adding that the first round of doses will likely treat about 100,000 people in Saskatchewan.

“We need to receive more and we need to receive it in a much more timely fashion,” he said.

Moe said Canada needs a “more ambitious procurement program for sure.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada’s lack of domestic manufacturing capabilities for the highly sought-after coronavirus vaccines — several of which use brand new mRNA technology — means it will be slightly further back in the queue than countries that produce the vaccines domestically.

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Still, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on The West Block on Sunday that Canada is still positioned to be in the “top five” in the global queue for vaccines.

— With a file from the Canadian Press

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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China says official manufacturing PMI for November is 52.1 — beating expectations – CNBC

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Workers producing dolls in a factory in Lianyungang, China’s Jiangsu province.
Stringer | AFP | Getty Images

China said on Monday that manufacturing activity expanded for the ninth straight month in November as the world’s second-largest economy continues to recover from a slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November came in at 52.1, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s the highest reading in more than three years, as well as better than the 51.5 forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll and October’s official reading of 51.4.

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that signal contraction. PMI readings are sequential and show month-on-month expansion or contraction.

The November data showed that the recovery in China’s vast manufacturing sector has accelerated, according to CNBC’s translation of the statistics bureau’s Mandarin-language statement.

Four factors drove manufacturing activity in November, according to Zhao Qinghe, the bureau’s senior statistician.

  • Both supply and demand of Chinese manufactured goods have continued to improve;
  • Imports and exports have also steadily recovered;
  • Prices of both raw materials and output have risen;
  • Prospects of manufacturers of all sizes have improved.

China also released PMI data for the services sector, which similarly showed that activity expanded for the ninth straight month. The official non-manufacturing PMI reading for November was 56.4, compared with 56.2 in October, data by the statistics bureau showed.

Overall, China said its composite PMI for this month came in at 55.7 — inching up from October’s 55.3.

‘Steady and stable recovery’

Analysts said the latest set of economic indicators point to a pick up in China’s economic growth.

“When we look at the data front in China, it’s been showing steady and stable recovery,” Jackson Wong, asset management director at Amber Hill Capital, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday after the release of the official PMI data.

Wong said the Asian economic giant is expected to continue on the same path into next year, and could be the only major economy to register growth this year.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at consultancy Capital Economics, pointed out that the most “significant development” in China recently is a recovery in household spending. That’s likely to continue given a tightening labor market and improving consumer sentiment, he explained.

“That should further support the rebound in services activity. It should also boost manufacturing, which will continue to benefit too from supportive fiscal policy and strong foreign demand,” he wrote in a note following the official PMI data release.

China, where cases of Covid-19 were first detected, is among the few economies expected to continue growing this year — but at a much slow pace. The International Monetary Fund has forecast the Chinese economy to expand by 1.9% in 2020, slowing from the 6.1% last year.

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‘No plan’ for economy will work without more access to COVID-19 tests, vaccines: O’Toole – Global News

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 on


Canada will not see economic stability until there is wide access to rapid tests and vaccines for the novel coronavirus, Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole says.

O’Toole made the remarks during a press conference Sunday morning.

“There is no plan for the economy if we don’t have rapid testing and vaccines as swiftly as possible,” he told reporters.

Read more:
Canada ‘in the top 5’ on list to receive coronavirus vaccines 1st: minister

O’Toole’s comments come as the federal Liberal government prepares to release a fall economic update on Monday.

The government has not tabled a budget for this fiscal year, but in July delivered what it called a “fiscal snapshot” that estimated the deficit was heading for a record of $343.2 billion.

Story continues below advertisement


Click to play video 'Ottawa to deliver long-awaited economic update amid pandemic'



2:24
Ottawa to deliver long-awaited economic update amid pandemic


Ottawa to deliver long-awaited economic update amid pandemic

O’Toole said there can’t be a “full economy, a growing economy, people working, people being productive without the tools to keep that happening in a pandemic.

“Those two tools are rapid tests and a vaccine,” he said.

O’Toole said Canada is “months behind our allies” when it comes to the large-scale rollout and use of rapid COVID-19 tests.

Health Canada has approved more than three dozen different tests for COVID-19, but only six of them are “point-of-care” versions more commonly referred to as rapid tests.

[ Sign up for our Health IQ newsletter for the latest coronavirus updates ]

Millions of rapid tests have been delivered to the provinces, however, health officials have been slow to utilize them as questions about best use and reliability remain unanswered.


Click to play video 'Coronavirus: LeBlanc says Canada is in top five to get COVID-19 vaccine'



9:26
Coronavirus: LeBlanc says Canada is in top five to get COVID-19 vaccine


Coronavirus: LeBlanc says Canada is in top five to get COVID-19 vaccine

O’Toole also said it appears as though Canada will be “months behind our allies on vaccines.”

Story continues below advertisement

“These are critical tools,” he said. “The vaccine is the hope we’re all looking for.”

Canada has signed contracts to secure 400 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, however, the federal government says only six million of those doses — enough to vaccinate three million people — will be in the country by early January for distribution once approved by Health Canada.

However, both the United States and Britain have said they expect to have millions of vaccine doses by next month and expect to have larger portions of their populations inoculated more quickly.

Read more:
Coronavirus cases are soaring but Trudeau’s approval ratings hold steady: Ipsos

O’Toole said Canadians are going to be “rightly frustrated” when other countries are “rolling out millions of doses” of COVID-19 vaccines before Canada.

“I hate to see us trailing,” O’Toole said. “I don’t compare ourselves to the worst response, I want Canada’s response to be the best, that’s why I want to see a plan and I want to see a plan for the economy — we need to get people working.”


Click to play video 'Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine'



9:25
Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine


Canada ‘needs a more ambitious procurement program’: Saskatchewan premier on COVID-19 vaccine

O’Toole is not the only one who appears to be frustrated. In an interview with The West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said it is “troubling” that only a small segment of the Canadian population could be vaccinated immediately.

Story continues below advertisement

Moe said the federal government communicated to the country’s premiers how many doses they would receive, adding that the first round of doses will likely treat about 100,000 people in Saskatchewan.

“We need to receive more and we need to receive it in a much more timely fashion,” he said.

Moe said Canada needs a “more ambitious procurement program for sure.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said Canada’s lack of domestic manufacturing capabilities for the highly sought-after coronavirus vaccines — several of which use brand new mRNA technology — means it will be slightly further back in the queue than countries that produce the vaccines domestically.

Story continues below advertisement

Still, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said on The West Block on Sunday that Canada is still positioned to be in the “top five” in the global queue for vaccines.

— With a file from the Canadian Press

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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