A stubborn lack of inventory and high mortgage rates kept many prospective homebuyers at bay for most of 2023.
Homeowners are holding on to their homes – and the sub-5% mortgage interest rates – instead of selling their homes to buy another at today’s elevated rates. With 85% of homeowners locked into pandemic-era low interest rates, it’s not surprising that existing home sales were down 15% year over year in October. Housing inventory was down 6% during the same timeframe.
But with mortgage rates steadily dropping over the past six weeks, averaging 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, down from nearly 7.8% at the end of October, experts believe 2024 could be the year that prospective homebuyers finally catch a break.
Which markets are poised to see the strongest combined increase in home sales and listing prices in the coming year?
Five of this year’s top 10 metro areas are in Southern California, which is projected to perform better than the state as a whole. These markets will see an estimated average sales growth of 13.1% in 2024, compared to a sales decline of 4.1% for other California areas in the top 100, according to an analysis by Realtor.com. The other five markets offer relative affordability compared to the national median home price – especially in the Midwest and Northeast.
“Now that we’re seeing the beginning of an affordability turnaround, home buyers are still looking for markets where they can capitalize on lower prices,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “Even in some of the more expensive markets, we’ll see double-digit sales growth as sales start to rebound from their historic lows, helped by mortgage rates which are expected to finally relent.”
Greater percentage of homeowners without a mortgage
The top markets in Midwestern and Northeastern states are more affordable, with all of the top five markets in those areas except for Worcester, Massachusetts, showing median listing prices lower than the national average. In these areas, 37.9% of homeowners live in homes without a mortgage, which insulates them from the impact of higher interest rates. Their local economies are fueled by education, health care and manufacturing, which, except for Toledo, Ohio, are projected to have strong enough job growth to keep unemployment below the estimated national average of 4.2% at the end of 2024. These areas also have a high quality of life, with recreation, culture and education that’s appealing to homeowners, according to the report.
The California dichotomy
Five California metros have made the top 10 list of housing markets but none are in the Bay Area or among Northern Californian metros. The top five Californian metros are Oxnard, San Diego, Riverside, Bakersfield and Los Angeles. These five areas are expected to have sales growth of 13%, on average, in 2024, compared to an average decline of 4% for other Californian metros in the largest 100 list.
However, these top California metros are still predicted to have historically low sales levels despite large improvements over depressed 2023 numbers. Mirroring national figures expected to total roughly 25% below 2017-2019 norms, sales in these Californian metros are also expected to be 20% to 35% lower than the typical pre-pandemic year from 2017 to 2019.
2023 top housing markets
1. Toledo, Ohio
November 2023 median home price: $200,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +14%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +8.3%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +22.3%
2. Oxnard, California
November 2023 median home price: $1,037,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +18.0%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +3.3%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +21.3%
3. Rochester, New York
November 2023 median home price: $239,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +6.2%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +10.4%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +16.6%
4. San Diego
November 2023 median home price: $995,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +11.0%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +5.4%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +16.3%
5. Riverside, California
November 2023 median home price: $585,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +13.8%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +2.0%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +15.8%
6. Bakersfield, California
November 2023 median home price: $385,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +13.4%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +2.3%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +15.7%
7. Springfield, Massachusetts
November 2023 median home price: $350,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +10.5%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +4.2%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +14.7%
8. Worcester, Massachusetts
November 2023 median home price: $475,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +9.1%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +4.8%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +13.9%
9. Grand Rapids, Michigan
November 2023 median home price: $390,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +6.1%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +7.2%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +13.3%
10. Los Angeles
November 2023 median home price: $1,150,000Forecasted 2024 home sales change: +9.2%Forecasted 2024 home price change: +3.5%Forecasted 2024 combined sales and price change: +12.7%
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
