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Real Estate Stock Could Stage Big Bounce Back – Forbes

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The shares of real estate services provider Realogy (RLGY) took a serious breather during yesterday’s session, dropping 13.7% after nabbing an eight-month high of $13.25 earlier in the session. The stock is trying to recover today, up 3.2% at $10.87 at last check, while most of its losses were captured by $10.50 level, which is also home to the equity’s post-bull gap lows and coincides with the recently supportive 50-day moving average. The security also saw support at its 80-day moving average, which has had bullish implications for RLGY in the past.

In fact, according to a study from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been three similar pullbacks to this trendline over the past three years. One month after each signal, RLGY was higher, averaging an impressive 16.2% return. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the security at $12.63, just shy of yesterday’s intraday peak.

The security is ripe for some analyst upgrades, too, especially considering its 154.4% six-month lead. Currently, just two of the five analysts in coverage consider Realogy stock a “strong buy,” compared to three tepid “hold” or worse ratings.

An unwinding of short interest could put some wind at the equity’s back, too. Currently, the 14.77 million shares sold short make up 13% of RLGY’s available float, and would take almost nine days to cover, at the stock’s average pace of trading. Should some of these bears begin to hit the exits, it could create a short squeeze for the security.

For those looking to buy RLGY’s recent dip with options, now looks like an opportune time. The security’ Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 72% stands higher than only 12% off readings from the past year. This suggests options players are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. What’s more, the security boasts a Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 83 out of a possible 100, indicating that the stock tends to outperform these expectations during the past year – a good thing for options buyers.

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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