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Real estate was booming in Milan and Seoul. Then came coronavirus – The Real Deal

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Milan and Seoul both saw record amounts of real estate investment in 2019. But with the emergence of coronavirus, their residential markets are taking a big hit. (Credit: ANDREAS SOLARO/AFP via Getty Images; JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)

The year 2019 was a great one for real estate in Milan, the economic engine of Italy.

Office leasing hit an all-time record of 481,100 square meters (5.2 million square feet), and office investment reached an all-time high of 3.6 million euros. On the residential side, Milan stood out as the only large Italian city to see rising home prices, thanks to a wave of new luxury development.

“Why Is Milan’s Real-Estate Market So in Fashion Right Now?” the Wall Street Journal asked three weeks ago, when Italy still had only one confirmed case of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. But things changed quickly.

On Monday, the Italian government announced that it would be extending quarantine and travel restrictions across the entire country — and not just the most heavily hit areas in the north, including Milan and Lombardy. The World Health Organization officially declared the virus a pandemic on Wednesday.

Data shows that the rapid spread of the epidemic across Italy has already impacted the local real estate market. Home sales in the first two months of 2020 were down 7 percent year-over-year in Lombardy, and down 12 percent in Milan, according to Scenari Immobiliari, an Italian real estate research institute.

“In the month of March a very strong reduction is probable, which is already evident in visits to apartments for sale which are less than half of what they were a year ago,” Scenari founder Mario Breglia told local media.

Breglia added that demand remained high, and he expected a half-year “rebound” after the emergency. “There are no pressures on prices, and on the contrary we have observed a slight rise in rents in Milan.”

Meanwhile, the impact on commercial real estate is less clear. “Commercial real estate sector is not the stock market. It’s slower moving and the leasing fundamentals don’t swing wildly from day to day,” said a Cushman & Wakefield research report from last week — prior to Monday’s plunge, the worst in 11 years.

The Italian government has introduced a moratorium on mortgage and other debt payments during the emergency to help consumers and businesses cope. High debt loads may pose a major risk to real estate firms and other businesses in the event of a prolonged crisis.

Read more of our coverage on coronavirus

K-Hole

Italy has recently surpassed both South Korea and (officially) Iran to become the country with the most coronavirus cases outside of China.

In South Korea, where the outbreak also took a turn for the worse three weeks ago after dozens of members of a fringe religious group were diagnosed with the virus, real estate brokers have seen business dry up dramatically.

The country’s apartment market saw an average of just 458 deals per day nationwide in the first nine days of March, compared to 2,272 deals per day in December, local business outlet ChosunBiz reported Wednesday, citing government statistics. That comes out to a 80 percent decline in deal volume.

The decline has been even starker in the densely populated capital of Seoul, where daily deal volume has fallen by 90 percent from 309 deals per day to just 31.

“Business is frozen as more people are postponing moving plans because of the coronavirus, or are hesitant to show their homes to strangers out of fear of contagion,” real estate broker Mr. Park, whose office is in Seoul’s central Seongdong district, told ChosunBiz.

Across the river in the high-end Gangnam district, many brokerages have closed their doors. “Even the elderly folks in the neighborhood who would come by to chat have stopped coming,” an anonymous broker in the area said. The South Korean government’s December decision to ban mortgage lending for high-end apartments hasn’t helped business either, he added.

According to data from Korean rental startup Dabang, rents for one-room apartments in university areas in Seoul fell 2 to 9 percent last month compared to the month before, with landlords that cater to foreign exchange students having trouble finding tenants during what is usually a peak moving season.

It has also been a bad time to enter the real estate business in South Korea, as the required professional training programs for new brokers have been on hold for three weeks.

On the commercial front, 2019 had been a banner year for investment sales in Seoul, with transactions hitting a record high of 16 trillion won (about $13.5 billion), according to CBRE. The outlook for 2020 remains unclear.

The coronavirus outbreak in South Korea had showed signs of coming under control in recent days, but on Wednesday local health officials reported the country’s largest single-day increase in new cases — 242 — as well the discovery of a major cluster at a call center in Seoul.

Meanwhile, real estate players in the U.S. are largely in wait-and-see mode when it comes to the coronavirus’ impact. But New York’s housing market is already showing early signs of unease — while March is typically the busiest month of the year for Manhattan property listings, listing inventory has only grown 2.2 percent through the month’s first nine days.

“Potential sellers [have been] holding back since the beginning of the month of March,” Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel said. “I believe the virus is the likely cause — there is a hesitancy to list at the moment.”

Write to Kevin Sun at [email protected]

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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