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Real estate's risks and opportunities ahead – Top1000funds.com

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As the demise of the office component in real estate allocations continues investors are favouring data centres, warehousing and low cost accommodation.

Office and bricks and mortar retail have suffered most at the hands of the pandemic. However, the pandemic-triggered impact on real estate from working from home and buying online varies across regions. For example, UK department stores and malls have been hit harder than their German counterpart, typically characterised by a grocery anchor.

Offices able to offer sought-after locations which help companies showcase their brand will thrive most. Moreover, offices in cities like Tokyo, where many employees’ preference is to come into work rather than work from home, will also thrive. In contrast, demand from office space in city’s like San Francisco, where most workers are now fully remote will stay weak. London offers opportunities for office investors. The pricing is much softer on a Brexit discount compared to other European capitals.

“The GFC offered an opportunity to get into London, now we are seeing the same thing,” said Tony Brown, global head of real estate at M&G Real Estate. Speaking at FIS Digital, he argued that investors should distinguish between offices that are magnetic and able to draw employees back with a better offering, from those that are mandatory.

It is important to view the current challenges in real estate in the context of the asset class’s evolution. For example, data centres and logistics overtook bricks and mortar retail a while back just as the listed equity giants of old like oil groups and big banks have also lost their crown.

“We haven’t been that positive on office for a while,” said Jon Cheigh, chief investment officer and head of real estate at Cohen & Steers, who estimates a fall in demand for office space of between -2 per cent to -10-15 per cent.

This was a sentiment echoed by fellow panellist Andrew Palmer, chief investment officer at Maryland State Retirement and Pension System. Overseeing a $7 billion allocation to real estate – $1 billion of which has been committed to managers over the last 12 months – he told delegates that the pension fund has been underweight office for while.

“It’s a difficult asset to release; it’s very expensive to make changes.”

Retail opportunities will shift to residential areas. Similarly, people are moving further away from their places of work, triggering a decentralisation in GDP and creating opportunities around major cities.

Maryland has structured a concentrated portfolio to core managers with allocations including storage and properties with lower price points like multi-family and workforce housing. Single family rentals and senior housing are also in the portfolio, and the allocation to industrials was recently ramped up.

However, investing in real estate alternatives like student accommodation or multi-family units requires investor patience and local knowledge.

“It’s difficult to invest in markets where you don’t have local experience,” said Palmer. “There are sectors we want to emphasise in the portfolio but we are not taking advantage of distressed assets; we are not sure they will return to peaks.”

Investors have flocked to warehousing and cloud computing facilities – both sectors that were initially found in the listed market. It’s behind the current trend of big money investors pivoting their sector composition and using the listed market to access real estate segments like large data centres and healthcare companies, said Cheigh.

“We are seeing investors selling billion dollar office buildings and shopping malls and deploying into self-storage facilities They are going from big assets to aggregate in a bunch of small assets.”

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Logistics low yield

Money has poured into logistics and yields are now notably lower. Although panellists noted some opportunities exist globally in logistics, appetite for logistics has waned.

Instead, investors should focus on healthcare, self-storage, data centres and towers and selective office and retail opportunities.

Real estate and infrastructure investors are often competing for the same assets with assets like data centres and cell towers crossing between the two buckets. It is a symptom of more money chasing fewer opportunities and investors becoming more active and flexible. It’s also a symptom or real estate’s evolution from just being viewed as “shiny” buildings, concluded Cheigh.

“Ultimately, investors want a physical asset with positive supply and demand trends. It doesn’t have to be shiny and beautiful.”

Sarah Rundell is a staff writer for Top1000funds.com based out of London. She writes on institutional investment across all asset classes, global trade and corporate treasury.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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