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Reasons to be thankful vs. worried this Thanksgiving – CNN

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(CNN)We’re living through a life-changing pandemic, an assault on democracy and a reckoning with racial justice. But it’s the economy and inflation souring the overall mood for Americans.

There’s plenty of cause for concern on social, political and health issues. Covid-19 cases are up in most states, signaling yet again that the virus is here to stay. A series of court cases proved the national reckoning on issues of race is as complicated and unsolvable as ever.
And looming behind every story on politics is the expected, attempted comeback of former President Donald Trump, who this time last year was plotting a coup. Sometimes these stories dovetail, as when Trump met with Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenager who was recently acquitted after killing two people in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last summer.
On Wednesday, meanwhile, President Joe Biden pointed to the conviction of three White men in the death of Ahmaud Arbery, a 25-year-old Black man, as proof that “our justice system (is) doing its job.”
What may touch more Americans more directly every day, however, is the state of the US economy.
Here is the disconnect between the data and daily life: People are feeling the pinch due to rising costs at the gas pump and the grocery store even when there’s a lot of very good economic news to be thankful for.
First, pretty much anyone who wants a job has one. The government recorded just 199,000 new jobless claims last week, the lowest since 1969. Meanwhile, a key measure of inflation rose to a 31-year high in October.
CNN’s Christine Romans, in a video report, described this Covid-19 pandemic contradiction.
I’ve borrowed much of her language for this list of arguably good news, which includes:
  • US industrial output is racing ahead above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Auto manufacturing bounced back last month and factory output would have been even stronger if not for hiccups in the corporate supply chain.
  • Corporate profits are enviable and big companies are navigating supply chain woes, passing along higher costs to customers and even padding their profit margins along the way.
  • The biggest publicly traded companies have bigger profit margins today than before the pandemic, and your retirement account probably shows it.
  • The Dow is up 17% this year and the S&P 500 is up 25%. If you step back farther since the market crashed in 2020, some averages have doubled.
  • Workers have the upper hand. You’ve heard it called the “Great Resignation” — Americans quitting their jobs in record numbers. In September, 4.4 million jumped ship, and economists say many are taking better jobs with higher pay and starting bonuses.
  • Paychecks are fatter after years of sluggish wage growth, especially for low-wage workers. Wage growth is nearing 5%.
  • Americans are saving. Thanks to higher pay, Covid-19 stimulus checks and child tax credits, Americans have an excess $2.3 trillion in savings since the crisis began. JP Morgan says its median checking account balance is 50% higher this year than in 2019.
  • The economy is adding jobs. Overall, 5.8 million jobs were added this year.
There is certainly a contradiction here if the national mood is down while the economic indicators are up.
In a recent CBS News poll, just 4% of Americans said things in the country are generally going very well, and 26% said they are going somewhat well. People felt the same way about the economy: A combined 30% said the condition of the national economy was very good or fairly good.
It’s also true that while concerns about the economy are up, they are still historically quite low, as Gallup notes.
“Inflation concerns hog all the headlines, but most other indicators are roaring ahead,” Romans said in her report.
She offered two reasons consumer sentiment gauges don’t reflect the strong indicators:
  • Americans are exhausted by the pandemic.
  • They are bombarded every day by higher prices at the grocery store and the gas station. “Everybody drives and eats; not everybody owns stocks,” she said.
It’s hard to square those strong indicators with the silly meme circulating in Washington that some Americans might not be able to afford turkeys this year because of inflation.
I asked Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN’s polling editor, how to view the national mood, and she argued the polling defies easy takeaways.
She said, “It’s simultaneously true that:
  • a) concerns about the economy are on the rise,
  • b) the economy still isn’t nearly as dominant an issue as it was during the Great Recession,
  • c) Americans’ prevailing views of the economy right now are overall pretty lousy and
  • d) views of the economy are closely entangled with partisanship.”
The partisan element is an important one. Large portions of Republicans might have a worse view of the economy right now simply because of their disregard for Biden. Democrats might have exhibited the same behavior during the Trump administration.
Food is certainly more expensive. The American Farm Bureau Federation crunched numbers to argue the average Thanksgiving feast for 10 people will cost $53.31, or about $5.30 per person. Last year, its average figure was $46.90.
The American Farm Bureau Federation noted that turkeys are more expensive this year, but also added the asterisk that it shopped for turkeys to make these calculations before grocery stores had stocked for Thanksgiving.
When White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked about this being the most expensive Thanksgiving ever, she responded, “I just want to be clear that there are abundance of turkeys available. They’re about one dollar more for a 20-pound bird, which is a huge bird if you’re feeding a very big family. And that’s something that, again, we’ve been working to make sure people have more money in their pockets to address it as the economy is turning back on.”
An abundance of turkeys is something for which every American can be thankful, even if there is concern that they cost a bit more.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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