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Recent immigrants shut out of strong wage growth as unemployment rises in Canada

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate continued to trend higher in August — reaching 6.6 per cent — as the job market slowdown hits workers and job seekers unevenly.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday showed the economy added a modest 22,000 jobs last month, lagging the pace of population growth.

The jobless rate increased from 6.4 per cent in July.

Employment last month rose in educational services, health care and social assistance and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing.

Meanwhile, it fell in the other services category as well as professional, scientific and technical services, utilities and natural resources.

As the job market continues to weaken under the weight of high interest rates, students and recent immigrants are shouldering much of the pain.

Students returning to school in the fall faced a particularly challenging summer job market this year. Their unemployment rate rose to the highest level since summer 2012, excluding the pandemic summer of 2020.

Between May and August, the unemployment rate for students was 16.7 per cent on average, up from 12.9 per cent last year.

“Much of the unemployment rate increases to-date have come from longer job searches for new labour market entrants (particularly students) but layoffs are also rising under the surface,” wrote RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen in a client note.

The summer job market was even more difficult for Black, Chinese and South Asian students, who faced considerably higher unemployment rates.

Black students had the highest unemployment rate of 29.5 per cent, up a whopping 10.1 per cent from summer 2023.

The latest rise in unemployment comes days after the Bank of Canada delivered its third consecutive interest rate cut and signalled more would likely be on the way.

Governor Tiff Macklem has repeatedly said the central bank wants economic growth to pick up again, acknowledging the job market has slowed down significantly.

As finding work becomes more challenging, the number of unemployed people grew to 1.5 million in August, a 22.9 per cent jump from the same month last year.

Friday’s report notes that of those who were unemployed in July, 16.7 per cent had transitioned to work in August, a smaller share than in August 2023.

“From the Bank of Canada’s perspective, higher unemployment coupled with persistent declines in per-capita GDP will reinforce that inflation will continue to drift lower and clearly argues for further interest rate cuts from what are still elevated levels,” said Janzen.

Despite the marked slowdown in hiring, workers have continued to enjoy rapid wage growth, with many of them restoring their pre-pandemic purchasing power.

Overall, average hourly wages in August were up five per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.16.

However, recent immigrants’ wage growth has been flat.

Statistics Canada says average hourly wage growth for those who landed in Canada over the last five years decreased by 1.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Meanwhile, more established immigrants saw their average hourly wages increase by 6.3 per cent.

Canadian-born workers’ wages have risen six per cent over that period.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

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Economy

Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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