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Recession expectations widespread, outlook for inflation remains high, Bank of Canada surveys show

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The Bank of Canada published a pair of quarterly surveys on Monday showing a sharp drop in business and consumer confidence about the economy as interest rates rise.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

The majority of businesses and consumers expect that Canada will enter a recession in the next year, while most continue to believe inflation will remain elevated for several years – a challenging mix for the Bank of Canada that sets the stage for another large interest rate hike next week.

The Bank of Canada published a pair of quarterly surveys on Monday showing a sharp drop in business and consumer confidence about the economy as interest rates rise, hitting the housing market and reducing consumer spending power.

Both businesses and consumers said they expect inflation to remain high in the coming years. There were, however, some positive signs that conditions that are forcing price increases are easing for businesses, which suggest Canada is so far avoiding the worst-case scenario of a wage-price spiral.

The business outlook indicator, which captures how companies feel about future sales, investment and hiring, had its biggest quarterly drop since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies connected with the housing sector were particularly downbeat. The survey of about 100 companies was conducted from mid-August to mid-September.

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The consumer survey, conducted in mid-August, found that most respondents don’t think their wages will keep pace with inflation, and many have begun cutting back on spending. Nearly 80 per cent said the chance of a recession in Canada within the next year is at least 50 per cent.

The crucial metric for the Bank of Canada in both surveys is inflation expectations. What consumers and businesses believe about future price increases can affect the trajectory of inflation, as employees negotiate higher wages and companies raise prices to protect their profit margins. The central bank is worried that people will expect permanently high inflation, and price increases will become self-reinforcing.

The surveys show that inflation expectations remain high for both businesses and consumers. But there were some glimmers of hope, which could influence whether the Bank of Canada opts to increase interest rates 0.5 percentage points or 0.75 percentage points at its next decision on Oct. 26.

The average respondent to the business survey expects 4.26-per-cent inflation in two years time. That’s down slightly from July, but still far above the Bank of Canada’s 2-per-cent target. However, many firms said they expect key inflationary pressures to ease.

“For the first time in the past five quarters, businesses reported that their supply chains had improved compared with three months ago,” the Bank of Canada said. “Several firms – more than in recent quarters – noted an easing in labour market tightness. They described seeing a decline in competition for labour, including less poaching, compared with 12 months ago.”

Notably, companies said they expected to increase wages by an average of 4.9 per cent over the next year, down from 5.8 per cent in the previous quarterly survey. While this decline is not good news for workers whose wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, it will be received positively by the Bank of Canada, which is worried that the growth of wages will keep pushing up prices, particularly in the service sector.

“Businesses might be starting to tell the Bank of Canada what it wants to hear,” Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, wrote in a note to clients. “While the balance of opinion among firms still pointed to labour shortages remaining a widespread issue, the intensity of those shortages has eased.”

The picture was less positive in the consumer survey. Short- and medium-term expectations of inflation continued to march higher, with the median respondent saying that inflation would be 7.1 per cent one year out, and 5.2 per cent two years out. In five years, they expected inflation to be 3.4 per cent, down slightly from the last survey.

While most consumers surveyed understand what the Bank of Canada is trying to achieve by increasing borrowing costs, the number of people who expect these actions to work declined, the central bank said.

“Canadians who aren’t familiar with the BoC’s inflation targeting think the target is upwards of 5 per cent, while even those who are familiar believe the target is close to 3 per cent,” Benjamin Reitzes, Bank of Montreal’s head of Canadian rates strategy, said in a note to clients. “If you’re looking for a reason for the BoC to remain very hawkish with its rhetoric, look no further.”

Consumer price index inflation has fallen in recent months, hitting 7 per cent in August from a four-decade high of 8.1 per cent in June. Statistics Canada will report September inflation data on Wednesday, which will tee up the Bank of Canada’s rate decision the next week.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said several times in recent weeks that he expects to announce another rate hike. Royal Bank of Canada economist Claire Fan said that Monday’s reports are unlikely to change that path.

“Despite improving signs in today’s survey results, price pressures currently are still too high and broad to reverse quickly. And we don’t expect the Bank of Canada to ease off the monetary policy brakes until policymakers are confident that inflation will slow substantially and sustainably,” she wrote in a note to clients.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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