Recession in Canada depends on jobs and layoffs | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

Recession in Canada depends on jobs and layoffs

Published

 on

Jobs market key to severity of downturn to come, says economist

 

Canadians won’t have to wait much longer to find out if the slowing economy sticks a soft landing or suffers a hard one.

That’s because the labour market over the next six months will show whether employers are responding by merely implementing hiring freezes or going into full-blown layoff mode, said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central.

The labour market is in good shape right now, but, as a lagging economic indicator, “labour statistics are usually strongest on the eve of a recession,” the former member of the Bank of Canada’s economics team said.

The current unemployment rate is 5.7 per cent, close to a historic low, and the number of people working remains high. Still, signs of an economic slowdown are growing.

Economists such as Benjamin Tal at CIBC World Markets say Canada is in a downturn as measured by gross domestic product per capita. Others believe the economy is likely already in a technical recession, which is two quarters of negative growth.

After increasing interest rates to a two-decade high of five per cent, the Bank of Canada in its Oct. 25 decision said its policy decisions are cooling inflation and economic activity. As higher rates work their way through the economy, a process that usually takes six to seven quarters, their effects are expected to finally hit the labour market.

“The next six months may be the window to observe a more meaningful deterioration in the labour market,” St-Arnaud said, and should establish whether Canadians find themselves in the midst of a hiring freeze or broad-based layoffs, which will make a huge difference to indebted households and to the economy.

For example, people are allocating 15 per cent of their disposable income to service their debts. The ratio of household debt to disposable income is roughly 180 per cent and insolvencies have rebounded to pre-pandemic levels.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts for October ticked up from September.

The national housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in October came in at 274,681, up one per cent from 270,669 in September.

The increase came as the pace of urban housing starts rose two per cent to 257,357 units, with multi-unit urban starts up one per cent at 209,887 and single-detached urban starts up nine per cent at 47,470.

 

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

Published

 on

 

FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version