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Recession risk? What is being said at Trudeau retreat

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As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gathers with his cabinet for a pre-return to Parliament retreat to plot out their priorities for 2023, a big focus of the conversation is on Canadians’ cost of living concerns.

Moreover, the question circulating at the meeting of ministers is how the Liberals plan to pay for their domestic political and international commitments as well as a potential multibillion-dollar deal with the provinces on health care, while being mindful of the risk of a recession.

As Trudeau meets with his front bench, a new report from the Business Council of Canada and Bennett Jones warns that there’s a “high risk” the Liberals won’t be able to follow through on all their spending plans without veering off of a more prudent fiscal track.

Helping cabinet assess the lay of the economic landscape on Tuesday, ministers heard from a trio of top economic minds ahead of what is expected to be yet another Bank of Canada interest rate hike Wednesday.

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So, what’s being said about all this at the federal cabinet retreat?

Here are some of the key quotes.

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND FINANCE MINISTER CHRYSTIA FREELAND

“We have talked a lot about the work that we are doing as a government, what Canadians are doing, Canadian people, Canadian businesses, to increase Canada’s economic capacity to increase growth and to drive the creation of more good jobs for Canadians. We spoke very much about the challenges ahead. There is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of volatility in the global economy. And we also spoke about the position of strength from which Canada enters this challenging period,” Freeland said during a scrum with reporters at the retreat on Tuesday.

“We do need to continue to take a fiscally prudent approach. We still do not know for sure how the plane is going to land. We do not know for sure how the COVID recession is going to finally play out… So, some challenging things to all do at the same time, and that’s the balance we’re going to have to find in the budget,” she said.

ASSOCIATE MINISTER OF FINANCE RANDY BOISSONNAULT

“We’re already seeing a slowdown in the economy, and it means that we’re going have to make some really serious choices about how we invest in Canadians, how we grow the economy. Where we actually direct the fiscal room that we have, the money that we have to invest in budget [2023] so we make smart choices for the future… Because of what we’re seeing with inflation, still at about 6.3 per cent, three times higher than we want to see it, that we are going to continue to see a slowdown in the economy. So, 2023 is going to be a turbulent economic year,” Boissonnault said in an interview on CTV News Channel’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos, live from the retreat on Tuesday.

“That means that we’re going to face some tough times as Canadians. And that’s why our supports for Canadians will continue. We’ve been through this before, and the economic fundamentals of the economy are good… After 2023, the future is very bright for Canada. We can get into the international reasons for that, but the bottom-line message is we’re going to have to make some really clear choices for Canadians in this budget,” he said.

FORMER SENIOR DEPUTY BANK OF CANADA GOVERNOR CAROLYN WILKINS

“You know, what people have in their minds is: ‘Where are interest rates going to level out? And if they do come down, or when they come down, how fast and by how much?’ … There are risks on the downside to the economic outlook. Evidently we haven’t seen all the effects of interest rates so far because it takes time for them to act. And many, many forecasters say it’s really going to be in the first three quarters of this year that we see the effects on GDP growth and on employment,” Wilkins said during a scrum with reporters at the retreat on Tuesday.

“And that’s going to bring inflation down even more. On the other hand, we see China opening, we see still some tightening in in labour markets here in Canada, in the U.S. and in other countries. And so that could mean that inflation stays a bit higher, or sticky at a level that’s lower than it is today, but still higher than the two per cent inflation targets that many of us have, and that because of that interest rates will either have to rise more or stay higher for longer,” she said.

UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMICS PROFESSOR KEVIN MILLIGAN

“Right now, as we look at the new commitments that are being made, we have to wait to see what comes out on the health accord. You know, my suspicion is there is not going to be an awful lot up front on that, it’s going to be a long run deal such that it doesn’t have as much of an impact over the short run considerations… We are still in a situation where the Bank of Canada is paying attention to what happens on fiscal policy. If you go too far, too fast, the Bank of Canada is going to simply ratchet things up and make the interest rate environment more challenging,” Milligan said during a scrum with reporters at the retreat on Tuesday.

“I think it is most likely over the next year that there’s going to be a soft patch in the economy. And I think all policymakers should keep that in mind. Whether that’s making sure that the employment insurance system is ready, whether that’s thinking about another round of income transfers to lower-income folks in a targeted way, those are the kinds of policy measures you might consider when the economy hits a slow patch,” he said.

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1 dead, 2 critically injured after car crash in Montreal

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Montreal

Three people are in hospital with critical injuries after their vehicle crashed into a tree. Police believe they might be connected to two drive-by shootings that took place early Thursday morning.

2 drive-by shootings also took place overnight

an SPVM car near a taped-off crime scene
Montreal police are investigating a car crash possibly linked to two drive-by shootings. (Mathieu Wagner/Radio-Canada)

Urgences-santé say one person died and two others were critically injured after their vehicle hit a tree in the Rosemont neighbourhood.

Montreal police believe the crash may be linked to two drive-by shootings early Thursday morning.

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The first happened around 5 a.m. on Pie-IX Boulevard. Police say a car was shot at repeatedly and the driver, a 41-year-old man, was injured in the upper body. He was transported to hospital, but his life is not in danger, say police.

Shortly afterward, shots were reported in the Plateau Mont-Royal borough, near the intersection of Saint-Joseph Boulevard and Henri-Julien Avenue. No one was injured.

Police say they are investigating to determine if there is a connection between the collision and the shootings. Montreal police spokesperson Jean-Pierre Brabant says it’s possible those in the vehicle were involved in the shootings.

The province’s independent police watchdog is now involved.

with files from Chloë Ranaldi

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Pakistan airline crew sought asylum in Canada: spokesperson – CTV News

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Typically, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight attendants who arrive in Toronto stay at a hotel overnight, meet back up with their crew the next day and then fly to their next destination.

But increasingly often, PIA attendants aren’t showing up, the airline says. According to PIA, at least eight flight attendants disappeared over the last year and a half.

They have abandoned their jobs and are believed to have sought asylum in Canada, a spokesperson for the government-owned airline says.

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Increased occurrences

Abdullah Hafeez Khan said at least eight flight attendants “have gone missing” after flying to Pearson International Airport in Toronto. He said these incidents have been happening over the last 10 years, but are now occurring more frequently.

“Since probably October of 2022, the number of the people that have opted asylum has increased tremendously,” Khan said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca from Karachi, Pakistan, where the airline is based.

“None of those crew members that disappeared in the last one-and-a-half years have come back. So they were granted asylum for one way or the other, and that probably has encouraged others to do so.”

The missing employees were fired immediately and lost their company benefits, Khan said.

Why did they flee?

Khan said he could only speculate as to why the flight attendants would flee.

The Canadian government underscored the volatile situation in Pakistan, warning in a travel advisory of a “high threat of terrorism,” along with threats of civil unrest, sectarian violence and kidnapping.

“The security situation is fragile and unpredictable,” the Canadian travel advisory reads. “Incidents are typically attributed to extremism, ethnic divisions, sectarian strife, regional political disputes and the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan.”

It added that many deaths and injuries have occurred from bombings, shootings and other terrorist attacks at a wide range of targets.

Since Khan isn’t in contact with any of the missing employees, he says, he assumes they decided to seek asylum in Canada for economic and social reasons.

“So I naturally assumed that all of them have been given asylum because I don’t think they would be living there illegally,” he said, adding they may already have family connections in Canada who can support them.

In this June 8, 2013, photo, a Pakistan International Airlines plane moments before take off from the Benazir Bhutto airport in Islamabad, Pakistan. (AP Photo/Anjum Naveed)

‘PR crisis’

Khan called the flight attendants’ disappearances a “PR crisis” for PIA that is “bad” for business amid a crew shortage.

The airline is in talks with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Pakistani law enforcement agencies to potentially create a “legal safeguard” to curtail flight crew from seeking asylum, he said.

When asked about the PIA flight attendants’ disappearances, Erin Kerbel, spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, said the department couldn’t comment on specific cases due to privacy legislation.

In response to questions about PIA’s claim that discussions are underway about the issue, a spokesperson for the CBSA said it could not confirm any information.

“The Canada Border Services Agency does not provide comment or details on specific individuals, including any discussions that would take place with airline companies, as an individual’s border and immigration information is considered private and protected by the Privacy Act,” Maria Ladouceur said in an email to CTVNews.ca.

Since the crew members’ disappearances, Khan said, the airline has “done numerous things to curtail that.”

For instance, the airline is only staffing Toronto-bound flights with crew members who have “established linkages” in Pakistan, such as children, spouses or parents, as well as those who have worked in the organization for more than 15 years.

The airline avoids sending to Toronto those who are single or don’t have established family ties in Pakistan, he said.

Khan said he and the airline are no longer in contact with the flight attendants because, they discovered, they usually change their phone numbers soon after disappearing in Toronto.

Who disappeared?

The PIA flight attendants who vanished in Canada are seasoned pros in their late 30s or 40s, some of whom have worked for the airline for as long as two decades, Khan said.

“There was never any sign from them that they would seek something like that,” he said. “So that is something that is bothering us in the matter because working with people who have been working with you for a long time and then something happens like this is pretty unexpected.”

In one of the latest cases in February, the crew members were waiting to take the bus back to the airport from the hotel in Toronto and one of the flight attendants didn’t show up, Khan said.

The airline was unable to reach the flight attendant on her cellphone or hotel landline so, Khan says, they asked hotel management to check if she was OK.

“When the crew went there, she left her uniform there with a note saying, ‘Thank you PIA,'” Khan said, which he interpreted as a genuine sentiment of gratitude for her more than 15 years of service with PIA rather than a taunt.

Khan said the crew members who disappeared were “family values people” who had good careers in Pakistan.

Asylum policies

Individuals can make a refugee claim in Canada at a port of entry upon arrival or online if they are already in Canada, according to the Canadian government’s website.

Canadian immigration or border officials will determine if the person is eligible for a hearing before the Immigration and Refugee Board. All claimants must undergo health and security screenings, the government says.

If eligible to make a claim in Canada, refugee claimants can access social assistance, education, health services, emergency housing and legal aid pending a decision on their claim. Most can apply for a work permit after a medical examination.

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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