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Record oil output to make Ottawa’s emissions cap ‘more daunting’: DBRS

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Canada’s oil sector could be on a collision course, with production forecast to rise as the federal government lays out a plan to clamp down on emissions, according to DBRS Morningstar.

Ottawa unveiled a draft regulation last Thursday aimed at cutting the greenhouse gas emissions of producers by up to 38 per cent by 2030 versus 2019 levels. Last March, the government proposed a 42 per cent drop in that time.

The latest plan was unveiled by federal ministers via webcast from Ottawa and Dubai, where Canada is participating in the annual UN climate summit. The government says the regulations have yet to be finalized, and could go into effect in 2026.

The plan was quickly dubbed a de-facto cap on production by the industry’s main lobby group. On Bay Street, CIBC Capital Markets called the timeframe “simply unrealistic.” The premier of Canada’s main oil and gas-producing province has said the federal government has no constitutional right to enforce the plan.

On Tuesday, U.S.-based credit ratings agency DBRS Morningstar weighed in, calling the regulations “very ambitious, with only seven years left to meet the targets.”

Adding to the challenge, analysts predict Canada’s oil output will climb by 15 per cent over 2019 levels, once two major projects are operational.

“[It’s] more daunting given that oil production will likely grow over the next few years. The offshore Newfoundland Bay du Nord light crude oil project is projected to come onstream in the middle of this decade, targeting international crude markets. In addition, the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project, expected in 2024, will provide another outlet for oil and gas companies in Western Canada to export more oil,” analysts led by Ravikanth Rai wrote in research published Tuesday.

Canadian oil production is set to climb to an all-time high next year of about 5.3 million bpd by the end of 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The agency says that amounts to a roughly 10 per cent increase, or about half a million barrels.

Half a million is a lot,” said Kevin Birn, S&P’s chief analyst for Canadian oil markets. “It’s bigger than what a lot of countries produce in the world.”

Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers president and CEO Lisa Baiton says the industry has “proven it can increase production, and take the carbon out.”

“We’ve done that in the absence of having our feet held to the fire,” she added at an event in Toronto last month.

Mounting skepticism

DBRS says carbon capture and storage technology will have to play a major role if the industry is to come “even remotely close” to the new federal framework’s targets.

“However, CCUS projects are untested at the scale required to meet the targets, and none of the proposed projects are close to being finalized for development,” the analysts wrote, adding to recent skepticism about the technology.

DBRS adds that the announcement of the federal emissions cap framework has no immediate impact on the credit ratings of Canadian oil and gas producers.

“Investment-grade Canadian oil and gas companies rated by DBRS Morningstar have significantly strengthened their balance sheets over the last two years, and will be addressing the emission reduction challenge from a position of financial strength,” the analysts wrote.

“Smaller oil and gas companies, which lack the economies of scale to make large decarbonization initiatives feasible, may find it more challenging, and we could see additional consolidation in the industry as a consequence.”

Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist.

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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