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Remarks by President Biden on the Economy – The White House

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11:43 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, good morning.  Tomorrow marks exactly six months since my administration began.  I think it’s a fitting moment to take a look at our economy — where we were six months ago, what we’ve achieved since then, and what I believe we’ve — I believe where we’re headed. 
Before I took office, there was a lot of folks out there — a lot of folks out there making some pretty bold predictions about how things would turn out.  You might remember some of the predictions.  That if I became President, we’d, quote, “see a depression the likes of which we’ve never seen.”  End of quote. 

Well, it’s true that the economy was sputtering before I got here, adding only 60,000 jobs per month for the three months before I was sworn in.  But now, six months later, we’ve changed that. 

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We’ve gone from 60,000 jobs per month to 60,000 jobs every three days — more than 600,000 jobs per month since I took office.  More than 3 million new jobs all told.  That’s the fastest growth, I’m told, at this point in any administration’s history.

Another prediction — that is my favorite one, I must add — is that if I got elected, I’d bring the end to capitalism.  (Laughs.)  I never understood that one, but we’ve heard — we’ve heard it an awful lot.  Well, in six months into my administration, the U.S. economy has experienced the highest economic growth rate in nearly 40 years. 

And we know we’ve — and now we knew that we needed to launch a war-time effort to get the — America vaccinated and pass a powerful American Rescue Plan. 

We did both those things.  And now, the forecasters have doubled their projections for growth this year in the economy to 7 percent or higher.  In fact, the U.S. is the only developed country in the world where growth projections today are stronger than they were before the pandemic hit. 

At the same time, companies across the country are giving workers a raise.  Unusual thing.  (Laughs.)  And the number of new unemployment claims has been cut by more than half since I took office. 

And by the way, two weeks ago, I issued a major executive order promoting fair and open competition, which is the cornerstone — the cornerstone of American capitalism, banning non-compete clauses that suppress workers’ wages; lowering the price of things like hearing aids, prescription drugs, Internet service; along with dozens of other actions. 

Folks, it turns out capitalism is alive and very well.  We’re making serious progress to ensure that it works the way it’s supposed to work: for the good of the American people.

So, for all those predictions of doom and gloom, six months in, here’s where we stand: record growth, record job creation, workers getting hard-earned breaks. 

Look, we’ve brought this economy back from the brink.  And we designed our strategy not only to provide for a temporary boost, but to lay the foundation for a long-term boom that brings everyone along.

You know, that’s why we designed the American Rescue Plan to help not just all those — everyone at once, but over the course of a full year and beyond so we could help families and small businesses weather the ups and downs of our — as the economy recovers from an historic pandemic.  And I — there are going to be ups and downs.

We saw a great example of that just last week.  For the first time, monthly payments began going out to nearly every working family raising a child in the United States of America.  Thanks to the expanded Child Tax Credit in the American Rescue Plan: $300 a month going out for each child under the age of six, and $250 for every child 6 through 17, every month for the next six months, with more coming in the spring. 

That money is a game-changer.  For some, it’s a lifesaver.  Think of the single mom, struggling to put food on the table each month.  The parent who has to tell their kid, “I’m sorry, honey, but we can’t afford those dance classes or the sports team you want to play on this fall.  We can’t do it.”  You know, they can’t wait for the credit against their taxes to be coming next year as a tax credit.  They need cash in their pockets today. 

For families with the least, this money will do the most — dramatically reducing child poverty in America.  And for millions of middle-class families, it will give them a little bit of breathing room every month.  That’s just one example of how we’re building an economy from the bottom up and the middle out.  

But despite that progress, we cannot afford to be complacent.  We know that our economic recovery hinges on getting the pandemic under control. 

You know, and by fully vaccinating 160 million Americans, 80 percent of our seniors, we’ve fundamentally changed the course of the pandemic — from one that threatens all Americans, to a disease that has the most severe impacts only on the unvaccinated people in the country.  But we can’t let up, especially since and because of the Delta variant, which is more transmis- — more transmissible and more dangerous. 

Unfortunately, cases are now rising, particularly in communities with very low vaccination rates.  Just four states account for nearly 40 percent — four states, 40 percent of all cases last week.  Virtually all hospitalizations and deaths are occurring among unvaccinated Americans.  These tragedies are avoidable. 

The data couldn’t be clearer: If you’re fully vaccinated, you have a high degree of protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death.  If you’re unvaccinated, you are not protected. So, please, please get vaccinated.  Get vaccinated now.  It works.  It’s safe.  It’s free.  It’s convenient.

You know, this virus doesn’t have to hold you back any longer.  It doesn’t have to hold our economy back any longer.  But the only way we put it behind us is if more Americans get vaccinated.

We also know that as our economy has come roaring back, we’ve seen some price increases.  Some folks have raised worries that this could be a sign of persistent inflation.  But that’s not our view.  Our experts believe and the data shows that most of the price increases we’ve seen are — were expected and expected to be temporary.

The reality is, you can’t flip the global economic light back on and not expect this to happen.  As demand returns, there’s going to be global supply chain challenges.  We’ve seen that in semi-conductors, which are used in automobiles.  That global shortage has slowed vehicle production, creating a temporary spike in car prices.  That’s a real challenge.  And my administration is doing everything we can to address it.  But again, these disruptions are temporary. 

Lumber prices are another example.  They spiked early in our recovery, but in recent weeks, they’ve began to fall — they’ve fallen by more than 50 percent. 

In the hospitality industry, prices are returning to where they used to be.  Economists call all of these things “transitory effects.”  And they account for about 60 percent of the price increases we’ve seen over the last few months. 

Now, I want to be clear: My administration understands that if we were to ever experience unchecked inflation over the long term that would pose real challenges to our economy.  So while we’re confident that isn’t what we are seeing today, we’re going to remain vigilant about any response that is needed. 

As I made clear to Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve when we met recently, the Fed is independent.  It should take whatever steps it deems necessary to support a strong, durable economic recovery.  But whatever different views some might have on current price increases, we should be united on one thing: passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework, which we shook hands on.  We shook hands on it.  And my Build Back Better plan will be a force for achieving lower prices for Americans looking ahead.  It’s another reason why these investments are so important. 

If we make a prudent, multi-year investments in better roads, bridges, transit systems, and high-speed Internet, and a modern, resilient electric grid, here’s what will happen: It breaks up the bottlenecks in our economy.  Goods get to consumers more rapidly and less expensively.  Small businesses create and innovate much more seamlessly.  If we increase the availability of quality, affordable childcare, eldercare, paid leave, more people will enter the workforce. 

These steps will enhance our productivity — raising wages without raising prices.  That won’t increase inflation.  It will take the pressure off of inflation, give a boost to our workforce, which leads to lower prices in the years ahead. 

So, if your primary concern right now is inflation, you should be even more enthusiastic about this plan.  And as we promote — as we promote fair competition in our economy through the executive order I mentioned, it will drive down prices even further.  New businesses will get in the game, competing against those giant corporations who have been free to ramp up prices because they haven’t had any real competition.

Look, the bottom line is this: What the best companies do and what we as a country should do is make smart, sustainable investments with appropriate financing to make this nation more productive, to advance America’s leadership on clean energy to win the jobs of the future while meeting the threat of climate change, and to ensure that all working Americans benefit from the growth they’re helping produce. 

The independent experts who have analyzed my plans have found that they would do just that: expand output and enable millions of Americans to enter the labor workforce now, just this year — not just for the next — but not just this year, but for decades in the future.  It’s not temporary.

This is the best strategy to create millions of jobs and lift up the middle-class families and grow wages and keep prices affordable for the long term. 

What we can’t do is go back to the same old trickle-down theories that gave us nearly $2 trillion in deficit-financed corporate tax giveaways that did nothing to make our economy more productive or resilient.  The same people who cheered on that approach are now telling us it isn’t [is] a problem if big companies have actually to compete for workers and offer them a fair wage with some dignity.

I could not disagree more.  We can’t go back to the old, failed thinking.  We need to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out, as I’ve said before. 

The investments I’m proposing are investments the American people want and investments that our country needs.  And if we get this done, a wide range of independent forecasters project that it will have an incredibly significant impact on GDP and jobs — good-paying jobs with prevailing wages.  And the majority of these jobs will go to people without a college degree. 

I’ve said it before, and it’s true: This is a blue-collar blueprint for building an American economy back.  Simply put, we can’t afford not to make these investments.  And we’re going to pay for them responsibly as well, by ensuring that our largest corporations and the very wealthiest among us pay their fair share by reforming our international tax system with a minimum global tax, which we’ve led the world to agree to. 

Let me close with this: When I arrived in office, it had been a long time since the government had worked for the people.  Things had been great for big corporations and folks at the top.  Those 55 major corporations that paid zero in income tax while making billions in profits, they had no complaints. 

But when I took office, I made a commitment — a commitment to the American people that we were going to change that paradigm so working families could have a fighting chance again to get a good education; to get a good job and a raise; to take care of the elderly parent or the child with the disability and still be able to go out and earn a good living; to stop losing hours of their lives stuck in traffic because the streets are crumbling; or waiting for slow, spotty Internet to connect them to the world. 

That’s what the economy we’re building is all about.  That’s why we passed the American Rescue Plan.  And that’s why we need the investment of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework and my Build Back Better plan. 

Our economy has come a long way over the last six months.  We can’t slow down now.  We can make this boom we’re experiencing today one that will ensure that all Americans have an opportunity to share in it for years to come.  And we can show the world that American democracy can deliver for the people. 

I look forward to continuing to build this economy.  And I’m incredibly optimistic about what we’re going to be able to build together in the next six months and the years to come. 

Thank you all for listening.  May God bless you.  And I’ll take a few questions.

Q    Mr. President, you said last week that companies and platforms like Facebook are “killing people” by letting them —

THE PRESIDENT:  Let me (inaudible) precisely what I said.  I’m glad you asked me that question.  One, I had just read that — on the Facebook — Facebook pointed out that — it was pointed out that Facebook, of all the misinformation, 60 percent of that misinformation came from 12 individuals.  That’s what the article said. 

So, I was asked that question about what do I think is happening.  Facebook isn’t killing people; these 12 people who are out there giving misinformation — anyone listening to it is getting hurt by it.  It’s killing people.  It’s bad information.

My hope is that Facebook, instead of taking it personally — that somehow I’m saying Facebook is killing people — that they would do something about the misinformation — the outrageous informa- — misinformation about the vaccine.  That’s what I meant.

Q    Have they done enough in your opinion to stop —

THE PRESIDENT:  I haven’t — to be completely honest with you, I don’t know that they did anything today.  Up to — over the weekend, I don’t think they had.  But I don’t know.  I don’t know the answer to that question.

Q    Will you hold them accountable if they don’t do more to stop the spread?

THE PRESIDENT:  I’m — when you say “hold accountable,” I just want to — I’m not trying to hold people account- — I’m trying make people to look at themselves.  Look in the mirror.  Think about that misinformation going to your son, your daughter, your relatives, someone you love.  That’s what I’m asking.

All the way in the back. 

Q    Yes, thank you, Mr. President.  At what point would you consider inflation unchecked to a point at which you would either consider taking action or you would want to see the Fed take action?

And secondly, why do you believe that the budget bill is appropriate legislation for a pathway to citizenship?

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, first of all, I think we need to find pathways to citizenship.  The budget bill is an appropriate way to get around the filibuster to be able to make a judgment as to whether or not they should have a pathway.  That’s for the Parli- — Parliamentarian to decide, though — not for Joe Biden to decide.

Your first ques- — part of the question was?

Q    It was on inflation.  You mentioned unchecked inflation.

THE PRESIDENT:  Yeah.  There’s nobody suggesting there’s unchecked inflation on the way — no serious economist.  That’s totally different. 

I mean, look, the stock market is higher than it has been in all of history, even went down this month — even down this month.

Now, I don’t look at the stock market as a means by which to judge the economy like my predecessor did.  But he’d be very — he’d be talking to you every day for the last five months about how the stock market is so high — higher than any time in history, still higher than any time in history.

So, that’s not how I judge whether or not we have economic growth.
Q    Mr. President, on China and cyber hacking —

THE PRESIDENT:  She jumps up before you do.  (Laughter.)

Q    Effectively, your administration is naming and shaming China, but no sanctions.  Why?  And is that effective enough?

THE PRESIDENT:  They’re still determining exactly what happened.  The investigation is not finished. 

Thank you all very much.

Q    On China real quick — on China real quick: What is your understanding of the biggest difference between what they’ve done versus what Russia has done in terms of cyber hacking?

THE PRESIDENT:  That’d take a longer explanation.

Q    We have all the time in the world.  What is it?

THE PRESIDENT:  No, we don’t.  I have to go see the King of Jordan. 

Look, to the best of my knowledge — and I’m getting a report tomorrow morning on this, a detailed report — my understanding is that the Chinese government, not unlike the Russian government, is not doing this themselves, but are protecting those who are doing it and maybe even accommodating them being able to do it.  That may be the difference. 

Thank you.

Q    Should the Olympics go forward, Mr. President?

THE PRESIDENT:  They are.

12:02 P.M. EDT

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U.S. growth slowed sharply last quarter to 1.6% pace, reflecting an economy pressured by high rates – BNN Bloomberg

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WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed sharply last quarter to a 1.6 per cent annual pace in the face of high interest rates, but consumers — the main driver of economic growth — kept spending at a solid pace.

Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — decelerated in the January-March quarter from its brisk 3.4 per cent growth rate in the final three months of 2023.

A surge in imports, which are subtracted from GDP, reduced first-quarter growth by nearly 1 percentage point. Growth was also held back by businesses reducing their inventories. Both those categories tend to fluctuate sharply from quarter to quarter.

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By contrast, the core components of the economy still appear sturdy. Along with households, businesses helped drive the economy last quarter with a strong pace of investment.

The import and inventory numbers can be volatile, so “there is still a lot of positive underlying momentum,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

The economy, though, is still creating price pressures, a continuing source of concern for the Federal Reserve. A measure of inflation in Friday’s report accelerated to a 3.4 per cent annual rate from January through March, up from 1.8 per cent in the last three months of 2023 and the biggest increase in a year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose at a 3.7 per cent rate, up from 2 per cent in fourth-quarter 2023.

From January through March, consumer spending rose at a 2.5 per cent annual rate, a solid pace though down from a rate of more than 3 per cent in each of the previous two quarters. Americans’ spending on services — everything from movie tickets and restaurant meals to airline fares and doctors’ visits — rose 4 per cent, the fastest such pace since mid-2021.

But they cut back spending on goods such as appliances and furniture. Spending on that category fell 0.1 per cent, the first such drop since the summer of 2022.

The state of the U.S. economy has seized Americans’ attention as the election season has intensified. Although inflation has slowed sharply from a peak of 9.1 per cent in 2022, prices remain well above their pre-pandemic levels.

Republican critics of President Joe Biden have sought to pin responsibility for high prices on Biden and use it as a cudgel to derail his re-election bid. And polls show that despite the healthy job market, a near-record-high stock market and the sharp pullback in inflation, many Americans blame Biden for high prices.

Last quarter’s GDP snapped a streak of six straight quarters of at least 2 per cent annual growth. The 1.6 per cent rate of expansion was also the slowest since the economy actually shrank in the first and second quarters of 2022.

The economy’s gradual slowdown reflects, in large part, the much higher borrowing rates for home and auto loans, credit cards and many business loans that have resulted from the 11 interest rate hikes the Fed imposed in its drive to tame inflation.

Even so, the United States has continued to outpace the rest of the world’s advanced economies. The International Monetary Fund has projected that the world’s largest economy will grow 2.7 per cent for all of 2024, up from 2.5 per cent last year and more than double the growth the IMF expects this year for Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.

Businesses have been pouring money into factories, warehouses and other buildings, encouraged by federal incentives to manufacture computer chips and green technology in the United States. On the other hand, their spending on equipment has been weak. And as imports outpace exports, international trade is also thought to have been a drag on the economy’s first-quarter growth.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, cautioned last week that the “flipside″ of strong U.S. economic growth was that it was ”taking longer than expected” for inflation to reach the Fed’s 2 per cent target, although price pressures have sharply slowed from their mid-2022 peak.

Inflation flared up in the spring of 2021 as the economy rebounded with unexpected speed from the COVID-19 recession, causing severe supply shortages. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 made things significantly worse by inflating prices for the energy and grains the world depends on.

The Fed responded by aggressively raising its benchmark rate between March 2022 and July 2023. Despite widespread predictions of a recession, the economy has proved unexpectedly durable. Hiring so far this year is even stronger than it was in 2023. And unemployment has remained below 4 per cent for 26 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s.

Inflation, the main source of Americans’ discontent about the economy, has slowed from 9.1 per cent in June 2022 to 3.5 per cent. But progress has stalled lately.

Though the Fed’s policymakers signaled last month that they expect to cut rates three times this year, they have lately signaled that they’re in no hurry to reduce rates in the face of continued inflationary pressure. Now, a majority of Wall Street traders don’t expect them to start until the Fed’s September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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Germans Debate Longer Hours and Later Retirement as Economic Growth Falters – Bloomberg

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German politicians and business leaders, despairing a weak economy, are lately broaching a once taboo topic: claiming their compatriots don’t work enough. They may have a point.

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner fired the latest salvo in this fractious debate last week when he said that “in Italy, France and elsewhere they work a lot more than we do.” Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a Green Party representative, grumbled in March about workers striking, something a country beset by labor shortages “cannot afford.” (Later that month train drivers secured a 35-hour workweek instead of 38, for the same pay.) Signaling his opposition to a four-day work week, Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing in January urged Germans “to work more and work harder.”

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Canada will take bigger economic hit than U.S. if Trump wins election: report – Global News

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Canada stands to bear a greater economic burden than the United States if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election and imposes promised tax cuts and tariffs on all U.S. imports, a new report warns.

The analysis released Tuesday by Scotiabank Economics says if Trump returns to the White House and follows through on his vow to slap a 10-per cent tariff on all imported goods — with the exception of China, which would face a 60-per cent carve-out on its U.S. exports — and countries retaliate with their own, there would be “substantial negative impacts” on the U.S. economy. GDP would likely fall by more than two per cent by 2027 relative to current forecasts, while inflation would rise 1.5 per cent, leading to a two per cent interest rate hike.

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In Canada, the economic impact would be even more stark with an expected GDP drop of 3.6 per cent, given its reliance on trade with the U.S. Inflation and interest rates would also be pushed up for the next two years — 1.7 per cent and 190 basis points, respectively — the report suggests.

“What Trump is looking to do is much broader, and much more concerning, than the tariffs he imposed during his first term,” said Scotiabank’s chief economist Jean-François Perrault, who authored the report.


Click to play video: 'Canada speaking with Trump allies in U.S. to prepare for possible second term: Ambassador Hillman'

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Canada speaking with Trump allies in U.S. to prepare for possible second term: Ambassador Hillman


The report also serves as another reminder that Canada needs to urgently address its issues with lagging productivity, warning the problem makes Canada more vulnerable to economic shocks brought by trade policy changes in the U.S. and abroad.

Perrault says it’s far too late to fix the problem in time for the U.S. election in November.

“It takes a long time to change direction on productivity,” he said in an interview. “Maybe you can make up some ground over the next few quarters, but we need massive amounts of progress to get to where we need to be (to withstand U.S. economic shocks).”

Trump’s policies seen as more likely than Biden’s

Although the analysis examined the impact of policies proposed by both Trump and U.S. President Joe Biden, it focuses more on the fallout from Trump’s promises.


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That’s because they’re not only more potentially harmful, Perrault said, but also because they’re more likely to be implemented than Biden’s vow to raise the corporate tax rate.

“There’s really no appetite in the U.S. right now for any kind of tax hike,” Perrault said.

Implementing a change to the corporate tax rate would require Biden’s Democrat party to control both chambers of Congress — a scenario seen as highly unlikely, given recent polling. Trump’s proposals, meanwhile, are seen as more likely to be implemented quickly and without congressional approval, particularly his expanded tariffs.

During his presidency, Trump imposed tariffs on about US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods imported to the U.S., later expanding to another US$300 billion, sparking a trade war with China. Many of those tariffs have remained in place under the Biden administration.

Trump also slapped tariffs up to 25 per cent on imported washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminum in 2018. Canada and Mexico were later exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs in 2019, although the Canadian aluminum tariff was briefly reintroduced in 2020.


Click to play video: '‘No guarantees’ in trading relationship with Trump administration, Freeland says'

1:17
‘No guarantees’ in trading relationship with Trump administration, Freeland says


U.S. government data shows those tariffs — none of which were legislated or approved by Congress — have cost American manufacturers more than US$230 billion as of March 2024 and have shrunk the U.S. economy by 0.3 per cent.

Trump has repeatedly claimed tariffs serve to punish unfair trade practices from other countries, despite agreement among economists that they raise prices for American consumers, and says he wants to expand them to 10 per cent on all imported goods from every country if he wins in November. He has also said he will seek a 100 per cent tariff on imported cars, and carve out a 60 per cent tariff for Chinese imports specifically.

The most likely scenario — a continuation of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts beyond their 2025 expiration combined with across-the-board tariffs — would see Canada’s GDP stay three per cent lower long-term, and just over one-per cent lower in the U.S.

The Scotiabank report says the economic harm from the tariffs can be reduced on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border if Canada and Mexico negotiate an exemption with the U.S. under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during the Trump administration.

Scotiabank predicts in that scenario, Canada’s GDP would only fall by 1.4 per cent in the short term — half the drop forecast without an exemption — and 0.3 per cent in the long term, while U.S. GDP would fall 1.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively.

Perrault says he’s “hopeful” such a carve-out could be negotiated, even though Trump would likely insist on further concessions that benefit U.S. trade. That “bigger stick” approach could be somewhat limited compared to the contentious CUSMA negotiations, however.

“Trump owns CUSMA, so he wouldn’t be in as much of a position to throw it away,” he said. “So maybe we get a little bit of a break.”


Click to play video: 'Trudeau says Canada to remain the same as previous Trump term in office, should former president return in 2024'

1:59
Trudeau says Canada to remain the same as previous Trump term in office, should former president return in 2024


The report also examines the impact of Trump’s repeated vow to mass deport roughly 10 million undocumented immigrants living illegally in the U.S., which Perrault admits would be “politically and logistically infeasible.” It would also be economically harmful, the analysis found, permanently reducing both U.S. employment and GDP by three per cent, though the impact on Canada would be negligible.

The analysis says Canada and the U.S. could see additional economic impacts due to a number of scenarios it didn’t explore, including China retaliating to tariffs by unloading its U.S. Treasury holdings; further debt ceiling and budgetary crises in the U.S.; Trump’s appeasement of aggressive foreign adversaries like Russia and China; and domestic civil disorder regardless of who wins the U.S. elections.

Perrault said the findings also underscore the key difference between Trump and Biden as Canadian trade partners.

“Biden seems to view negotiations from a collaborative approach: how can everyone come away with a win?” he said. “Trump doesn’t see it that way. He’s very much in the mindset of, ‘How will this benefit me?’”

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