Democrats’ near-term opportunities shouldn’t obscure the longer-term problems the party faces.
First, from the time of his likely election in November and his inauguration in January, President Joe Biden will find himself under attack not only from the GOP but also from elements within his own party.
It isn’t that the Democrats’ “AOC wing,” under the leadership of Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts will dictate the party’s positions to Biden. That’s just ridiculous. Biden isn’t an amateur who just fell off a rutabaga truck.
But progressives are sure to complain (no matter what Biden does) that he hasn’t done enough, almost guaranteeing a fissure in the Democratic Party.
After eight years of Barack Obama and four years of Donald Trump, progressives are impatient and want dramatic change sooner rather than later. Recent events obviously have played into their hands, which will be stronger in 2021.
Second, a Biden victory will almost immediately draw attention to the 2022 midterms.
Reapportionment and redistricting could help House Democrats, as could initiatives to make voting easier nationally. But even with that, the House could well be in play in 2022. That’s what tends to happen to the president’s party. The angry, disappointed and frustrated turn out during midterm balloting to express their displeasure.
With Trump out of the picture, swing voters, college-educated whites and suburbanites could easily move back to the GOP if the economy is weak or if Biden appears ineffective. Minority voters could lose enthusiasm. That would create a noticeably different national political dynamic from the one we see now.
Third, while the Senate class of 2022 looks like a juicy target for Democrats, that could also change with their party controlling the White House.
Three Democratic senators might well see their seats in play: Michael Bennet in Colorado, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and quite possibly Mark Kelly in Arizona (assuming he wins a special election this year).
At least seven GOP Senate seats would start off as vulnerable, but Democratic control of the White House, and normal midterm trends, might undermine that party’s takeover prospects in all or most of those states: Florida (Marco Rubio), Georgia (whoever wins the 2020 special), Iowa (Charles E. Grassley), North Carolina (Richard M. Burr), Ohio (Rob Portman), Pennsylvania (Patrick J. Toomey) and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson).
Retirements could improve Democratic chances, of course, depending on how strong the political current will be for one party or the other.
Most or all of those GOP Senate seats would be at risk if Donald Trump were still in the White House and Republican incumbents were on the ballot during a second Trump midterm election. But with Biden as the sitting president, the dynamics would be much more favorable for the GOP.
That isn’t to say that Democrats couldn’t win some (or even many) of those seats. But the challenge for them would be much greater with a Democrat in the White House, particularly if they control the presidency and both chambers of Congress.
Obviously, Democrats could benefit during the midterms from a changing electorate. The country is becoming less white and more diverse, and younger voters seem to have new priorities. At the same time, the GOP has shown little ability to broaden its coalition or appeal to voters of color.
Changing demographics in a handful of key states, including Texas and Georgia, could also change the arithmetic of the House and Senate, once again helping Democrats.
Finally, it is difficult to see Trump, or other members of the Trump family, simply slinking away after a 2020 defeat. His continued presence — and inevitably controversial tweets — could give Democrats a target and a way to make the midterm election more about Trump and Republican allegiance to him than about Biden.
Obviously, Democrats can’t be too concerned about 2022 at this point. Biden leads Trump comfortably right now, but it is almost four months until November.
Still, it’s worth noting that in the rash of articles about the GOP’s fundamental problems, the 2022 dynamic could be dramatically different. Democrats can’t assume that winning this November would mean smooth sailing ahead.
Indeed, a stinging defeat in November might well convince Republicans that a change in course is in order.
Stuart Rothenberg is a columnist for CQ-Roll Call.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
