Report says Windsor is bound for major real estate decline in 2023. Others say it's too soon to tell - CBC.ca | Canada News Media
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Report says Windsor is bound for major real estate decline in 2023. Others say it's too soon to tell – CBC.ca

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Once labelled the hottest real estate market in the country, Windsor-Essex is now on a list of regions expected to see the biggest decline in home prices as the market corrects itself, according to a new report. 

The Desjardins Group’s recent Canadian Residential Real Estate Outlook report states that Chatham-Kent and Windsor-Essex are among the top three regions in Ontario to be hit, with Bancroft in first place. 

“What our report says is that those markets that have seen the biggest appreciation in the last couple years are going to be the most vulnerable to the price declines,” explained Jimmy Jean, vice-president and chief economist with Desjardins, who oversaw the report, which was published in early June.

The pandemic encouraged people to move out of city centres to cheaper locations like Windsor-Essex, and that’s why areas a few hours outside of Toronto are now expected to see this drop, Jean added.

That means Windsor’s red-hot spike in prices have now put it in the red zone on the flip side.

Ontario-wide, the report projects an average price decline of about 18 per cent. Windsor-Essex is expected to see a price decline of 44 per cent from its peak, according to Jean, but that comes after a 100 per cent appreciation from December 2019 until the recent peak in house prices. Chatham-Kent is predicted to experience a 47 per cent drop from its peak. 

Growing interest rates are a significant factor in why, Jean explained.

The report by the Desjardins group predicts that following the area of Bancroft, which is in first place, Chatham-Kent and Windsor-Essex see the biggest decline in home prices by the end of 2023 across the province. (Desjardins Group)

However, the president of the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, Elica Berry, disagrees with this prediction. 

“My prediction — our prediction — based on some of our financial advisors and everything, we’re thinking that it’s going to stay stable,” Berry said.

“We’re not going to be dropping significantly. We have a lot of things going on in our economy here, so we don’t see it dropping. I cannot imagine it dropping to that extent here in Windsor.”

She added it would also be far too soon to tell.

According to data from the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, the average price of a home in Windsor-Essex reached its peak in March at $723,739. The average dipped down to $692,759 in April, continuing down to $647,331 in May.

Jean predicts prices will continue go down, though he doesn’t expect a full roll back to pre-pandemic price levels, and added that in 2023, prices will still be higher than they were at the end of 2019. 

Relief for some, blow for others

This will likely be a blow to those who made purchases at the market’s peak, he explained.

“Those are going to be the individuals that are going to be most affected in terms of their wealth,” Jean said, but stressed that this correction won’t last long, and that appreciation should rise again following the end of 2023. 

Economist Jimmy Jean predicts a ‘healthy’ market correction

5 hours ago

Duration 1:17

Here’s what economist Jimmy Jean anticipates in the real estate market over the next couple of years.

While it will sting some, this market correction will also provide “temporary relief” for others, Jean added.

Given that the pandemic saw a rise in over-bidding and practices like buying “sight unseen,” this shift will help reduce those practices. 

“Those are very unhealthy market behaviours and it’s the reason that we will have some individuals who will find themselves underwater as this unfolds. But at the same time, for new buyers in the next couple of years, it’s going to be a market that’s going to have more choice. It’s also going to be a market that’s more affordable and more aligned with what actual incomes can and should be paying.”

Shift in the market

Though Berry doesn’t anticipate the kind of decline Jean is predicting, she does acknowledge that there has been a shift in the market in recent months. 

“We’re wondering where all the buyers went,” Berry said.

Elica Berry, president of Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, doesn’t anticipate a major decline in the real estate market. (CBC)

She explained that months ago, a listing would get up to 20 offers and would sell within a week, but now it’s taking weeks to sell, sometimes getting as little as two offers on a listing.

Berry said homes are still selling over-asking, but not to the same extent as before, and so sellers have to adjust to the market. 

It’s also led to some listings being cancelled and re-listed after not getting the hoped-for response to that property. 

Berry stresses that while we’re not seeing the same spike as before, the market here is still strong. 

“It’s still there, still in the 600K range, so we’re catching up with the rest of Canada.”

Looking forward, Jean looks forward to a return to “more sanity” in the market.

“This will be a healthy correction re-balancing. But the market should be able to find its footing. So, that’s why we were saying this is not a reason to panic,” he said.

“What we saw in the last couple of years was just unsustainable.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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