Revenge spending may keep the economy chugging along - CNN | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

Revenge spending may keep the economy chugging along – CNN

Published

 on


New York (CNN Business)Now that some mask and vaccine mandates are being lifted, consumers seem ready to spend on travel and other leisure experiences. Call it the “revenge spending” phenomenon.

Airline and hotel stocks have been surging this year thanks in part to a spate of long overdue revenge spending, or what some are dubbing the YOLO economy. An ETF of travel companies run by investing firm SonicShares, with the ticker symbol of “TRYP” is up nearly 6% this year while the S&P 500 has fallen 9%.
United (UAL) and American (AAL) both reported strong earnings earlier this week. Shares of Marriott (MAR), Hilton (HLT) and Wyndham (WH) are near all-time highs. Theme park owner SeaWorld (SEAS) is not far from a record high, too. And shares of cruise line operators Norwegian (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are both up this year despite the broader market selloff.
These companies are thriving despite the fact that consumer prices are soaring and many Americans have a downbeat view of the economy because of sky-high inflation and rising interest rates.
But Garrett Melson, a portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers, told CNN Business that it’s more important to look at actual spending patterns than consumer confidence figures.

Brushing off inflation and rate hike worries…for now

“When you look at sentiment, it’s in the basement. There is a lot of negativity. Inflation is in the driver’s seat,” he said. “But consumers are still spending thanks to excess savings and pent-up demand.”
Inflation is obviously a concern, Melson added, especially since more investment banks are predicting that Fed rate hikes may eventually lead to a recession. But he thinks consumers, tired of being cautious, are not worrying about a potential downturn just yet.
“People want to get back out and do things they haven’t done for the past two years,” he said. “They will complain about prices but they are still going out to spend.”
And they are apparently spending a bundle with their credit cards.
American Express (AXP) said in its first-quarter earnings report Friday that travel and entertainment spending was up 121% over a year ago and “essentially reached pre-pandemic levels globally for the first time in March, driven by continued strength in consumer travel.”
AmEx reported particularly strong demand for its Delta (DAL)-branded cards.
Still, an eventual economic slowdown could hurt consumer stocks…no matter how much people want to go out and do things.
Citi leisure and travel analyst James Hardiman said in a report this week that even though “the leisure space is generally to be avoided in the event of a recession,” some companies are likely to be “substantially more buoyant than others.”
Hardiman added that if a recession is short and shallow, many of these companies could “become compelling early-stage plays, particularly if they show resilient earnings power throughout.”
For example, he has “buy” ratings on boating company Brunswick (BC), whose resilience he said is “underappreciated,” as well as snowmobile and all-terrain vehicle maker Polaris (PII).
Hardiman also thinks that “theme park demand stability should shine during a declining macro environment, and “has “buy” ratings on Six Flags (SIX) and Cedar Fair (FUN), which owns more than a dozen theme parks in the US and Canada.
He may be right about that, but it’s worth remembering that investors tend to bail on hot sectors and stocks once a trend seems played out…even if the fundamentals are still decent. Just look at what’s happened to some of the market’s favorite work-from-home and shelter-in-place stocks lately.
Shares of such pandemic darlings as Zoom (ZM), Roku (ROKU) and Teladoc (TDOC) have all plunged from their Covid highs and are now trading lower than they were two years ago, at the start of the pandemic. If the economy slows more rapidly than people expect, travel and leisure stocks could suffer a similar fate.

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version