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Revised NHL draft odds would impact lottery teams

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The National Hockey League has spent the better part of seven weeks trying to structure a potential return-to-action plan. While most of the attention has been on the remnants of the regular season and what a reworked playoff format would look like, recent interest has shifted to the upcoming entry draft.

The league, perhaps more and more aware that the sport’s on-ice return may still be a ways out, has started to focus on the draft and draft lottery. There is no doubt that the NHL was paying close attention to the NFL’s draft last week – a major success story that saw a whopping 15.6 million people tune in for just the first round.

Recent reports indicate that the league is strongly considering conducting the draft sometime in June, which would predate this year’s Stanley Cup – assuming postseason hockey is still played.

Because the NHL is considering both revamping and expanding the playoff format on a one-time only basis, concerns have grown about the (exceptionally small) odds of a team winning both the draft lottery and the Stanley Cup. That has prompted the league to consider changing the structure of the draft lottery, despite the fact that the vast majority of the regular season has been played.

If you read the details of the report, one potential revision to the lottery rules stands out: the league would pick just one winner, drawing for the top spot only, with those odds likely determined by regular season points percentage.

Couple that single draw with a couple of important conditions:

  1. A team can only move up by a maximum of four spots; and
  2. Because only one ball is drawn, a team can only theoretically slide by one spot

In other words: a boon for the teams lucky enough – or bad enough – to tank this season away, and it comes at the cost of the second-tier teams who won’t really get a bite at the proverbial apple.

Under this scenario, only five teams will have a shot at Rimouski’s Alexis Lafreniere (four when you consider that Ottawa owns San Jose’s pick), and players like Sudbury’s Quinton Byfield, Mannheim’s Tim Stutzle, or Erie’s Jamie Drysdale will be similarly difficult to land.

How does the math work out? Well, let’s look at the draft lottery odds under normal circumstances. As you can see, each team has a weighted chance (proportional to where they finished):

I’m going to draw two teams into focus for a moment so you can understand how significant the shift is with the proposed changes.

Under the current format, the Detroit Red Wings had the best odds at drawing the first-overall pick (19 per cent), presumptively selecting the aforementioned Lafreniere. That means they had a four-in-five chance of not landing Lafreniere, and a two-in-three chance of not landing either Lafreniere or Byfield.

Fourth-place Los Angeles could land in any number of spots – they hold about a 10 per cent chance of drawing any of the top three spots, and also carry some risk of sliding further in the draft (the Kings actually held a two-in-three chance of sliding into the five-to-seven range based on the old format).

Now, let’s re-do the math with just one ball being drawn for the top spot. How does that impact the likelihood of where a team may land? Well, let’s do the math one more time.

In the case of Detroit and Los Angeles again, we see what we would expect. Detroit’s odds taken together do not change – they have the same 19 per cent odds of winning the draft lottery, which means that there is an 81 per cent chance they would have slid in either direction. (The differentiator with Detroit, of course, is that in the first draft iteration they could have slid into third or fourth, depending on how the balls fell. In the second iteration, all of their slide risk is baked into the second draft spot.)

Los Angeles better represents the magnitude of the change. Because the Kings finished fourth, we see only three scenarios. The first is them winning the draft lottery and picking first overall, which has a 10 per cent chance of occurring. The second is one of Detroit, Ottawa, or San Jose winning the lottery and them holding in the fourth spot. There was only a three per cent chance of Los Angeles picking fourth two months ago. Now, there is a 62 per cent chance of them picking fourth. The last scenario – one in which Anaheim, New Jersey, Buffalo, or Montreal win the draft lottery – gives them a 29 per cent chance of sliding their pick to fifth.

The theme of the rule change is straightforward: it is beneficial to teams at the very top due to the first-overall odds and their inability to slide more than one spot. The trade-off is that teams in the lower tiers of the draft lottery are increasingly likely to hold their current spot, or slide one spot back.

Now, we wait to see if the plan gets traction league-wide.

Data via NHL.com  

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Edited by Harry Miller

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New York Rangers lean on depth for decisive 7-2 win over Montreal Canadiens

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MONTREAL – On a night when New York’s top line was missing in action, the bit players grabbed the spotlight and led the Rangers to a commanding 7-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

“That’s the kind of team we have,” said Filip Chytil, who led the Rangers with a pair of power-play goals Tuesday. “The guys on the top line had chances but when they don’t score we have three other lines to pick up the slack.”

The Rangers’ dominance was reflected in the amount of time they spent in the Canadiens zone and their 45-23 edge in shots.

“If you’ve watched us practice, you know that’s something we work on all the time,” said Chytil. “When we get the puck, we want to hold on to it.”

The Rangers grabbed a 2-0 lead on goals by Mika Zibanejad at the 56-second mark and Jonny Brodzinski at 2:05, but it was Montreal which pressed the play in the first minute.

“I thought we had a good start but they turned it around on us,” said Montreal coach Martin St. Louis.

Lane Hutson controlled the puck off the opening faceoff and had two early shots, both of which were blocked by New York’s Jacob Trouba.

“That was huge for us,” said Rangers coach Peter Laviolette. “We know (Trouba) can generate offence but he can come up with those big defensive plays.”

Montreal goalie Sam Montembeault exited at 11:05 of the first period after giving up four goals on 10 shots. Zibanejad, Brodzinski, Chytil and Reilly Smith all scored on the Habs’ starter.

His replacement, Cayden Primeau, stopped 33 of 35 shots, giving up goals to Braden Schneider, Kaapo Kakko and Chytil.

Nick Suzuki scored both of the Montreal goals, his first strikes of the season

“It didn’t really feel like a 7-2 game until the end there when you look up at the scoreboard,” Suzuki said. “But we obviously keep digging ourselves these holes, and against a good team like that, our details early on have to be really sharp. And we were definitely a little sleepy coming out and they jumped on us.”

Hutson led the Canadiens in ice time with 24:10 but this wasn’t one of his better games. Smith scored on a breakaway after taking the puck off Hutson’s stick and the rookie was minus-4 for the night.

After Tuesday’s morning practice, the Canadiens announced forward Juraj Slafkovsky will miss at least a week with an upper-body injury. Defenceman Kaiden Guhle missed a second consecutive game with an upper-body injury but the team said it isn’t a long-term ailment.

The injury situation didn’t get any better after Trouba flattened Justin Barron at 7:11 of the third period. Barron didn’t return to the ice but there was no immediate word on his condition.

The Rangers welcomed back defenceman Ryan Lindgren, who made his season debut after missing five games with a jaw injury.

Before the game, 14 players from the Canadiens’ team that won four consecutive Stanley Cups between 1976 and 1979 were introduced at the Bell Centre. Among them were Hockey Hall of Fame members Yvan Cournoyer, Serge Savard, Guy Lapointe, Bob Gainey and Ken Dryden.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.

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Ohtani’s historic 50-50 ball sells at auction for nearly $4.4M amid ongoing dispute over ownership

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Shohei Ohtani’s 50th home run ball has sold at auction for nearly $4.4 million, a record high price not just for a baseball, but for any ball in any sport, the auctioneer said Wednesday.

Ohtani became the first player in baseball history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season, reaching the milestone on Sept. 19 when the Los Angeles Dodgers star hit his second of three homers against the Marlins.

“We received bids from around the world, a testament to the significance of this iconic collectible and Ohtani’s impact on sports, and I’m thrilled for the winning bidder,” Ken Goldin, the founder and CEO of auctioneer Goldin Auctions said in a statement.

The auction opened on Sept. 27 with a starting bid of $500,000 and closed just after midnight on Wednesday. The auctioneer said it could not disclose any information about the winning bidder.

The auction has been overshadowed by the litigation over ownership of the ball. Christian Zacek walked out of Miami’s LoanDepot Park with the ball after gaining possession in the left-field stands. Max Matus and Joseph Davidov each claim in separate lawsuits that they grabbed the ball first.

All the parties involved in the litigation agreed that the auction should continue.

Matus’ lawsuit claims that the Florida resident — who was celebrating his 18th birthday — gained possession of the Ohtani ball before Zacek took it away. Davidov claims in his suit that he was able to “firmly and completely grab the ball in his left hand while it was on the ground, successfully obtaining possession of the 50/50 ball.”

Ohtani and the Dodgers are preparing for Game 1 of the World Series scheduled for Friday night.

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LeBron and Bronny James make history as the NBA’s first father-son duo to play together

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — LeBron James gave his 20-year-old son a pep talk before they rose from the Lakers bench. Amid rising cheers, they walked together to the scorer’s table — and then they stepped straight into basketball history.

LeBron and Bronny became the first father and son to play in the NBA together Tuesday night during the Los Angeles Lakers ‘ season opener, fulfilling a dream set out a few years ago by LeBron, the top scorer in league history.

“That moment, us being at the scorer’s table together and checking in together, it’s a moment I’m never going to forget,” LeBron said. “No matter how old I get, no matter how my memory may fade as I get older or whatever, I will never forget that moment.”

Father and son checked into the game against Minnesota simultaneously with four minutes left in the second quarter, prompting a big ovation from a home crowd aware of the enormity of the milestone. The 39-year-old LeBron had already started the game and played 13 minutes before he teamed up with his 20-year-old son for about 2 1/2 minutes of action.

LeBron James is one of the greatest players in NBA history, a four-time champion and 20-time All-Star, while LeBron James Jr. was a second-round pick by the Lakers last summer. They are the first father and son to play in the world’s top basketball league at the same time, let alone on the same team.

“Y’all ready? You see the intensity, right? Just play carefree, though,” father told son on the bench before they checked in, an exchange captured by the TNT cameras and microphones. “Don’t worry about mistakes. Just go out and play hard.”

Their time on court together was fast and furious, just as LeBron promised.

LeBron, who finished the night with 16 points, missed two perimeter shots before making a dunk. Bronny had an early offensive rebound and missed a tip-in, and his first NBA jump shot moments later was a 3-pointer that came up just short. He checked out one possession later with 1:19 left in the second quarter, getting another ovation.

Bronny didn’t play again in the Lakers’ 110-103 victory over the Timberwolves.

“(I) tried not to focus on everything that’s going on around me, and tried to focus on going in as a rookie and not trying to mess up,” Bronny said. “But yeah, I totally did feel the energy, and I appreciate Laker Nation for showing the support for me and my dad.”

After the final whistle on the Lakers’ first opening-night victory in LeBron’s seven seasons with the team, father and son also headed to the locker room together — but not before stopping in the tunnel to hug Savannah James, LeBron’s wife and Bronny’s mother. The entire family was in attendance to watch history — on little sister Zhuri’s 10th birthday, no less.

Ken Griffey Sr. and Ken Griffey Jr. also were courtside at the Lakers’ downtown arena to witness the same history they made in Major League Baseball. The two sluggers played 51 games together for the Seattle Mariners in 1990 and 1991 as baseball’s first father-son duo.

The Jameses and the Griffeys met during pregame warmups for some photos and a warm chat between two remarkable family lines.

LeBron first spoke about his dream to play alongside Bronny a few years ago, while his oldest son was still in high school. The dream became real after Bronny entered the draft as a teenager following one collegiate season, and the Lakers grabbed him with the 55th overall pick.

“I talked about it years and years ago, and for this moment to come, it’s pretty cool,” LeBron said. “I don’t know if it’s going to actually hit the both of us for a little minute, but when we really get to sit back and take it in, it’s pretty crazy. … But in the moment, we still had a job to do when we checked in. We wasn’t trying to make it a circus. We wasn’t trying to make it about us. We wanted to make it about the team.”

LeBron and Bronny joined a small club of father-son professional athletes who played together. The Griffeys made history 34 years ago, and they even homered in the same game on Sept. 14, 1990.

Baseball Hall of Famer Tim Raines and his namesake son also accomplished the feat with the Baltimore Orioles in 2001.

In hockey, Gordie Howe played alongside his two sons, Mark and Marty, with the WHA’s Houston Aeros and Team Canada before one NHL season together on the Hartford Whalers in 1979-80, when Gordie was 51.

While the other family pairings on this list happened late in the fathers’ careers, LeBron shows no signs of slowing down or regressing as he begins his NBA record-tying 22nd season.

LeBron averaged more than 25 points per game last year for his 20th consecutive season, and he remains the most important player on the Lakers alongside Anthony Davis as they attempt to recapture the form that won a championship in 2020 and got them to the Western Conference finals in 2023.

Bronny survived cardiac arrest and open heart surgery in the summer of 2023, and he went on to play a truncated freshman season at the University of Southern California. He declared for the draft anyway, and the Lakers eagerly used the fourth-to-last pick in the draft on the 6-foot-2 guard.

LeBron spent the summer in Europe with the gold medal-winning U.S. team at the Paris Olympics, while Bronny played for the Lakers in summer league. They started practicing together with the Lakers before training camp.

The duo first played together in the preseason, logging four minutes during a game against Phoenix just outside Palm Springs earlier this month.

“It’s been a treat,” LeBron said at Tuesday’s morning shootaround. “In preseason, the practices, just every day … bringing him up to speed of what this professional life is all about, and how to prepare every day as a professional.”

The Lakers were fully aware of the history they would make with this pairing, and coach JJ Redick spoke with the Jameses recently about a plan to make it happen early in the regular season.

The presence of the Griffeys likely made it an inevitability for opening night, even though Redick said the Lakers still wanted it “to happen naturally, in the flow of the game.”

The Lakers have declined to speculate on how long Bronny will stay on their NBA roster. Los Angeles already has three other small guards on its roster, and Bronny likely needs regular playing time to raise his game to a consistent NBA standard.

Those factors add up to indicate Bronny is likely to join the affiliate South Bay Lakers of the G League at some point soon. LeBron and Redick have both spoken positively about the South Bay team, saying that player development is a key part of the Lakers organization.

Miami forward Kevin Love, who knew all the James children — Bronny, Bryce and Zhuri — from his time as LeBron’s teammate in Cleveland, said it was “an unbelievable moment” to see father and son playing together.

“I grew up a Mariners fan, so I got to see Griffey and then Griffey Sr. But this is different, because LeBron is still a top-five player in the league,” Love said. “This game, man. It’s why we have that ($76 billion) TV deal. The storylines and the things that happen like this, it’s an unbelievable story. This is really cool to see.”

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AP Basketball Writer Tim Reynolds in Miami contributed.

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