Sports

Revised NHL draft odds would impact lottery teams

Published

5 years ago

May 4, 2020

The National Hockey League has spent the better part of seven weeks trying to structure a potential return-to-action plan. While most of the attention has been on the remnants of the regular season and what a reworked playoff format would look like, recent interest has shifted to the upcoming entry draft.

The league, perhaps more and more aware that the sport’s on-ice return may still be a ways out, has started to focus on the draft and draft lottery. There is no doubt that the NHL was paying close attention to the NFL’s draft last week – a major success story that saw a whopping 15.6 million people tune in for just the first round.

Recent reports indicate that the league is strongly considering conducting the draft sometime in June, which would predate this year’s Stanley Cup – assuming postseason hockey is still played.

Because the NHL is considering both revamping and expanding the playoff format on a one-time only basis, concerns have grown about the (exceptionally small) odds of a team winning both the draft lottery and the Stanley Cup. That has prompted the league to consider changing the structure of the draft lottery, despite the fact that the vast majority of the regular season has been played.

If you read the details of the report, one potential revision to the lottery rules stands out: the league would pick just one winner, drawing for the top spot only, with those odds likely determined by regular season points percentage.

Couple that single draw with a couple of important conditions:

A team can only move up by a maximum of four spots; and
Because only one ball is drawn, a team can only theoretically slide by one spot

In other words: a boon for the teams lucky enough – or bad enough – to tank this season away, and it comes at the cost of the second-tier teams who won’t really get a bite at the proverbial apple.

Under this scenario, only five teams will have a shot at Rimouski’s Alexis Lafreniere (four when you consider that Ottawa owns San Jose’s pick), and players like Sudbury’s Quinton Byfield, Mannheim’s Tim Stutzle, or Erie’s Jamie Drysdale will be similarly difficult to land.

How does the math work out? Well, let’s look at the draft lottery odds under normal circumstances. As you can see, each team has a weighted chance (proportional to where they finished):

I’m going to draw two teams into focus for a moment so you can understand how significant the shift is with the proposed changes.

Under the current format, the Detroit Red Wings had the best odds at drawing the first-overall pick (19 per cent), presumptively selecting the aforementioned Lafreniere. That means they had a four-in-five chance of not landing Lafreniere, and a two-in-three chance of not landing either Lafreniere or Byfield.

Fourth-place Los Angeles could land in any number of spots – they hold about a 10 per cent chance of drawing any of the top three spots, and also carry some risk of sliding further in the draft (the Kings actually held a two-in-three chance of sliding into the five-to-seven range based on the old format).

Now, let’s re-do the math with just one ball being drawn for the top spot. How does that impact the likelihood of where a team may land? Well, let’s do the math one more time.

In the case of Detroit and Los Angeles again, we see what we would expect. Detroit’s odds taken together do not change – they have the same 19 per cent odds of winning the draft lottery, which means that there is an 81 per cent chance they would have slid in either direction. (The differentiator with Detroit, of course, is that in the first draft iteration they could have slid into third or fourth, depending on how the balls fell. In the second iteration, all of their slide risk is baked into the second draft spot.)

Los Angeles better represents the magnitude of the change. Because the Kings finished fourth, we see only three scenarios. The first is them winning the draft lottery and picking first overall, which has a 10 per cent chance of occurring. The second is one of Detroit, Ottawa, or San Jose winning the lottery and them holding in the fourth spot. There was only a three per cent chance of Los Angeles picking fourth two months ago. Now, there is a 62 per cent chance of them picking fourth. The last scenario – one in which Anaheim, New Jersey, Buffalo, or Montreal win the draft lottery – gives them a 29 per cent chance of sliding their pick to fifth.

The theme of the rule change is straightforward: it is beneficial to teams at the very top due to the first-overall odds and their inability to slide more than one spot. The trade-off is that teams in the lower tiers of the draft lottery are increasingly likely to hold their current spot, or slide one spot back.

Now, we wait to see if the plan gets traction league-wide.

Data via NHL.com

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Edited by Harry Miller

Sports

Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

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AP cricket:

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Sports

Dabrowski, Routlife into WTA doubles final with win over Melichar-Martinez, Perez

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.

Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.

The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.

The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.

Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.

Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Sports

Winger Tajon Buchanan back with Canada after recovering from broken leg

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.

The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.

Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.

There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.

Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.

But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.

The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”

The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.

Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.

Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.

Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.

Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.

“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”

“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.

Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.

Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.

The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.

Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.

Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.

Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.

Canada Roster

Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).

Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).

Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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