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Rising COVID-19 hospitalizations will strain system, even without omicron: Ontario science table – CBC.ca

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Ontario could see between 250 and 400 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care in January, putting more strain on an already burdened health system, the province’s science advisory table says.

The latest modelling report from the group, released on Tuesday, said that cases are rising in most public health units, and recommends continued public health measures and increasing the speed of the campaign to vaccinate children aged five to 11 against the virus.

The projected climb in cases and admissions to ICUs does not account for the presence of the omicron variant, which injects multiple layers of uncertainty into the latest modelling and could mean the forecasts are overly conservative, the group said.

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“COVID will almost certainly rise through (January) even before omicron hits us in full force. Case numbers count, because too many Ontarians remain un/under vaccinated and will end up in hospital,” the expert group said in a Twitter thread expanding on its report.

“We can’t predict omicron precisely, but it will almost certainly hit us hard and fast.”

At a news conference Tuesday afternoon, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said that the modelling is “disconcerting.” He also noted that unvaccinated people are driving the majority of hospitalizations and are most often the ones requiring intensive care.

“It’s absolutely preventable what is happening in our acute care sector,” he said.

“I am concerned about the coming months and the potential effect on our health-care system.”

WATCH | Medical officer of health discusses new modelling:

Latest COVID-19 modelling ‘disconcerting,’ Ontario’s top doctor says

2 hours ago

Duration 1:21

Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore also noted Thursday that unvaccinated people are driving the majority of hospitalizations and are most often the ones requiring intensive care. 1:21

Test positivity rates are climbing

Testing levels for the illness across Ontario have remained flat in recent months, while the overall test positivity rate continues to climb, suggesting a real rise in cases of COVID-19, according to the science table.

Just how much cases will climb is largely dependent on the pace of vaccinations, the group said. In a worst-case scenario — which includes no further public health restrictions, and about 30 per cent of five-to-11 year olds fully vaccinated by year’s end — daily cases could rise to nearly 3,000 by mid-January.

If vaccination coverage of that demographic rises to 50 per cent by the end of December, daily cases will likely top out in the range of 1,500 to 1,800 by mid-January, the group projected.

In a hypothetical scenario in which further public health restrictions are re-introduced — leading to a 15 per cent drop in overall transmission of the virus — and 30 per cent of five-to-11 year olds are fully immunized by the end of the year, cases could flatten out around 1,100 per day by some point in January.

As of Monday, roughly 22 per cent of eligible five-to-11 year olds had received a first dose of vaccine.

WATCH |  No way to further loosen restrictions in face of omicron variant, science advisor says:

Keep holiday gatherings small in face of omicron variant, Ontario science adviser says

6 hours ago

Duration 4:23

Dr. Peter Jüni says people need to ‘use your common sense’ when it comes to having small gatherings over the holidays in the face of the omicron variant. 4:23

While overall admissions to hospital and ICUs have remained steady in recent weeks, further increases in cases will inevitably lead to more Ontarians requiring critical care, the group said.

Hospitals are dealing with severe burnout among staff and ongoing high demand for urgent non-COVID-related care, and could therefore struggle to deal with a surge of COVID-19 patients, the table said.

Ontario can ‘safely admit’ 300 COVID-19 patients to ICUs: government

In a news release, the Ontario government said that investments to increase hospital capacity mean the health-care system could “safely admit approximately 300 patients with COVID-related critical illness into ICUs without putting at risk urgent surgeries.

“This would allow the province’s hospital system to effectively manage the intake of ICU patients projected as the most likely scenario by expert modellers in the coming months. Ontario can quickly surge up capacity further if necessary,” the government said.

In the same news release, the government said it is once again holding off on lifting capacity limits in remaining higher-risk settings where proof of vaccination is required while officials monitor health-care indicators and study the omicron variant.

Those settings include food or drink establishments with dancing like nightclubs, and wedding receptions in meeting and event spaces where there is dancing, as well as strip clubs, sex clubs and bathhouses.

“We must remain cautious in the face of the virus,” Moore said.

“There’s no doubt that the months ahead will require continued vigilance.”

Omicron may be more transmissible than delta: science table

The confirmed presence of the omicron variant further complicates the situation in Ontario, the science table said. Early data suggests it is more transmissible than delta, and that people who have already been infected with the virus are at risk of reinfection — meaning omicron could be resistant to immunity. 

That said, the early data also suggests that vaccination provides significant protection from developing severe COVID-19 symptoms from omicron.

Sisters Raya, 7, and Sky, 5, are shown getting a first dose of the pediatric Pfizer vaccine at The Boardwalk Vaccination Clinic in Waterloo, Ont. on Nov. 26, 2021. As of Monday, roughly 22 per cent of eligible five-to-11 year olds in Ontario had received a first dose of vaccine. (Submitted by Region of Waterloo Public Health)

At least 13 omicron cases have been detected so far in the province, and the London-area health unit investigating a potential cluster of 30 cases.

Toronto Public Health officials also said late Monday they are investigating the city’s first school-based case of the variant, at Precious Blood Catholic School.

928 new COVID-19 cases reported Tuesday

Meanwhile, Ontario reported 928 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday.

Ontario’s seven-day average of daily new cases is up to 975, a level not seen since the decline of the third wave in early June, and nearly a 23 per cent increase of last Tuesday. 

Today’s case count is a 35 per cent jump from the same time last week.

Officials have said a rise in cases this fall and winter was expected, as the weather gets colder and more activities move indoors. 

Some local public health units have recently imposed stricter rules in response. Chatham-Kent Public Health was the latest to announce tighter restrictions, set to take effect Friday. The changes include lower capacity limits for indoor gatherings, with the exception of weddings, funerals and religious services. Those events must, however, ensure that capacity is limited to a number that allows for physical distancing.

As of Monday, there were 340 people hospitalized with COVID-19, the most since Sept. 16. Of those, 165 were being treated in intensive care units, down from 168 the day before.

According to Critical Care Services Ontario, 13 more adults were admitted to ICUs yesterday and the seven-day average of COVID-19 patients in ICUs stands at 156.

The Ministry of Health also reported the deaths of nine more people with the illness, pushing the official toll to 10,036. 

Here are some other key pandemic indicators and figures from the ministry’s daily provincial update:

School-related outbreaks: There are currently 237 active outbreaks of COVID-19 tied to schools in the province, according to Public Health Ontario, with 219 of those in elementary schools, a new pandemic high. The previous high for elementary school-related outbreaks came on April 14, when there were 214.  

Tests completed in the previous 24 hours: 26,136, with a 3.8 per cent positivity rate. 

Active cases: 8,479.

Vaccinations: Nearly 81 per cent of all eligible Ontarians have had two doses.

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Capital gains tax change draws ire from some Canadian entrepreneurs worried it will worsen brain drain – CBC.ca

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A chorus of Canadian entrepreneurs and investors is blasting the federal government’s budget for expanding a tax on the rich. They say it will lead to brain drain and further degrade Canada’s already poor productivity.

In the 2024 budget unveiled Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government would increase the inclusion rate of the capital gains tax from 50 per cent to 67 per cent for businesses and trusts, generating an estimated $19 billion in new revenue.

Capital gains are the profits that individuals or businesses make from selling an asset — like a stock or a second home. Individuals are subject to the new changes on any profits over $250,000.

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The government estimates that the changes would impact 40,000 individuals (or 0.13 per cent of Canadians in any given year) and 307,000 companies in Canada.

However, some members of the business community say that expanding the taxable amount will devastate productivity, investment and entrepreneurship in Canada, and might even compel some of the country’s talent and startups to take their business elsewhere.

WATCH | The federal budget hikes capital gains inclusion rate: 

Federal budget adds billions in spending, hikes capital gains tax

3 days ago

Duration 6:14

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled the government’s 2024 federal budget, with spending targeted at young voters and a plan to raise capital gains taxes for some of the wealthiest Canadians.

Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators (CCI), said the capital gains tax has overshadowed parts of the federal budget that the business community would otherwise be excited about.

“There were definitely some other stars in the budget that were interesting,” he said. “However, the … capital gains piece really is the sun, and it’s daylight. So this is really the only thing that innovators can see.”

The CCI has written and is circulating an open letter signed by more than 1,000 people in the Canadian business community to Trudeau’s government asking it to scrap the tax change.

Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke and president Harley Finkelstein also weighed in on the proposed hike on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Former finance minister Bill Morneau said his successor’s budget disincentivizes businesses from investing in the country’s innovation sector: “It’s probably very troubling for many investors.”

Canada’s productivity — a measure that compares economic output to hours worked — has been relatively poor for decades. It underperforms against the OECD average and against several other G7 countries, including the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan, on the measure. 

Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers sounded the alarm on Canada’s lagging productivity in a speech last month, saying the country’s need to increase the rate had reached emergency levels, following one of the weakest years for the economy in recent memory.

The government said it was proposing the tax change to make life more affordable for younger generations and fund efforts to boost housing supply — and that it would support productivity growth.

A challenge for investors, founders and workers

The change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access funding in a high interest rate environment, said Bergen.

He questioned whether investors will want to fund Canadian companies if the government’s taxation policies make it difficult for those firms to grow — and whether founders might just pack up.

The expanded inclusion rate “is just one of the other potential concerns that firms are going to have as they’re looking to grow their companies.”

A man with short brown hair wearing a light blue suit jacket looks directly at the camera, with a white background behind him.
Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators, said the proposed change could have a chilling effect for several reasons, with companies already struggling to access and raise financing in a high interest rate environment. (Submitted by Benjamin Bergen)

He said the rejigged tax is also an affront to high-skilled workers from low-innovation sectors who might have taken the risk of joining a startup for the opportunity, even taking a lower wage on the chance that a firm’s stock options grow in value.

But Lindsay Tedds, an associate economics professor at the University of Calgary, said the tax change is one of the most misunderstood parts of the federal budget — and that its impact on the country’s talent has been overstated.

“This is not a major innovation-biting tax change treatment,” Tedds said. “In fact, when you talk to real grassroots entrepreneurs that are setting up businesses, tax rates do not come into their decision.”

As for productivity, Tedds said Canadians might see improvements in the long run “to the degree that some of our productivity problems are driven by stresses like housing affordability, access to child care, things like that.”

‘One foot on the gas, one foot on the brake’

Some say the government is sending mixed messages to entrepreneurs by touting tailored tax breaks — like the Canada Entrepreneurs’ Incentive, which reduces the capital gains inclusion rate to 33 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million — while introducing measures they say would dampen investment and innovation.

“They seem to have one foot on the gas, one foot on the brake on the very same file,” said Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

WATCH | Could the capital gains tax changes impact small businesses?: 

How could capital gains tax increases impact Canadian small businesses? | Power & Politics

2 days ago

Duration 12:18

Some business groups are worried that new capital gains tax changes could hurt economic growth. But according to Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez, most Canadians won’t be impacted by that change — and it’s a move to create fairness.

A founder may be able to sell their successful company with a lower capital gains treatment than otherwise possible, he said.

“At the same time, though, big chunks of it may be subject to a higher rate of capital gains inclusion.”

Selling a company can fund an individual’s retirement, he said, which is why it’s one of the first things founders consider when they think about capital gains.

LISTEN | What does a hike on the capital gains tax mean?: 

Mainstreet NS7:03Ottawa is proposing a hike to capital gains tax. What does that mean?

Tuesday’s federal budget includes nearly $53 billion in new spending over the next five years with a clear focus on affordability and housing. To help pay for some of that new spending, Ottawa is proposing a hike to the capital gains tax. Moshe Lander, an economics lecturer at Concordia University, joins host Jeff Douglas to explain.

Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, says he was disappointed by the change — and that it sends the wrong message to Canadian industries like his own.

He wants to see the government commit to more tax credit proposals like the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses, which he said would incentivize business owners to stay and help make Canada competitive with the U.S.

“We’ve had a lot of difficulties attracting investment over the years. I don’t think this will make it any better.”

Tech titan says change will only impact richest of the rich

A man sits on an orange couch in an office.
Ali Asaria, the CEO of Transformation Lab and former CEO of Tulip Retail, told CBC News that the proposed change to the capital gains tax is ‘going to really affect the richest of the rich people.’ (Tulip Retail)

Toronto tech entrepreneur Ali Asaria will be one of those subject to the expanded capital gains inclusion rate — but he says it’s only fair.

“It’s going to really affect the richest of the rich people,” Asaria, CEO of open source platform Transformer Lab and founder of well.ca, told CBC News.

“The capital gains exemption is probably the largest tax break that I’ve ever received in my life,” he said. “So I know a lot about what that benefit can look like, but I’ve also always felt like it was probably one of the most unfair parts of the tax code today.”

While Asaria said Canada needs to continue encouraging talent to take risks and build companies in the country, taxation policies aren’t the most major problem.

“I think that the biggest central issue to the reason why people will leave Canada is bigger issues, like housing,” he said.

“How do we make it easier to live in Canada so that we can all invest in ourselves and invest in our companies? That’s a more important question than, ‘How do we help the top 0.13 per cent of Canadians make more money?'”

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Canada Child Benefit payment on Friday | CTV News – CTV News Toronto

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More money will land in the pockets of Canadian families on Friday for the latest Canada Child Benefit (CCB) installment.

The federal government program helps low and middle-income families struggling with the soaring cost of raising a child.

Canadian citizens, permanent residents, or refugees who are the primary caregivers for children under 18 years old are eligible for the program, introduced in 2016.

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The non-taxable monthly payments are based on a family’s net income and how many children they have. Families that have an adjusted net income under $34,863 will receive the maximum amount per child.

For a child under six years old, an applicant can annually receive up to $7,437 per child, and up to $6,275 per child for kids between the ages of six through 17.

That translates to up to $619.75 per month for the younger cohort and $522.91 per month for the older group.

The benefit is recalculated every July and most recently increased 6.3 per cent in order to adjust to the rate of inflation, and cost of living.

To apply, an applicant can submit through a child’s birth registration, complete an online form or mail in an application to a tax centre.

The next payment date will take place on May 17. 

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Ontario Legislature keffiyeh ban remains in place – CBC.ca

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Keffiyehs remain banned in the Ontario Legislature after a unanimous consent motion that would have allowed the scarf to be worn failed to pass at Queen’s Park Thursday.

That vote, brought forth by NDP Leader Marit Stiles, failed despite Premier Doug Ford and the leaders of the province’s opposition parties all stating they want to see the ban overturned. Complete agreement from all MPPs is required for a motion like this to pass, and there were a smattering of “nos” after it was read into the record.

In an email on Wednesday, Speaker Ted Arnott said the legislature has previously restricted the wearing of clothing that is intended to make an “overt political statement” because it upholds a “standard practice of decorum.”

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“The Speaker cannot be aware of the meaning of every symbol or pattern but when items are drawn to my attention, there is a responsibility to respond. After extensive research, I concluded that the wearing of keffiyehs at the present time in our Assembly is intended to be a political statement. So, as Speaker, I cannot authorize the wearing of keffiyehs based on our longstanding conventions,” Arnott said in an email.

Speaking at Queen’s Park Thursday, Arnott said he would reconsider the ban with unanimous consent from MPPs.

“If the house believes that the wearing of the keffiyeh in this house, at the present time, is not a political statement, I would certainly and unequivocally accept the express will of the house with no ifs, ands or buts,” he said.

Keffiyehs are a commonly worn scarf among Arabs, but hold special significance to Palestinian people. They have been a frequent sight among pro-Palestinian protesters calling for an end to the violence in Gaza as the Israel-Hamas war continues.

Premier calls for reversal

Ford said Thursday he’s hopeful Arnott will reverse the ban, but he didn’t say if he would instruct his caucus to support the NDP’s motion.

In a statement issued Wednesday, Ford said the decision was made by the speaker and nobody else.

“I do not support his decision as it needlessly divides the people of our province. I call on the speaker to reverse his decision immediately,” Ford said.

WATCH | Ford talks Keffiyeh ban: 

Ford says division over keffiyeh ‘not healthy’

19 hours ago

Duration 1:20

Ontario Premier Doug Ford reiterated Thursday that he does not support Speaker Ted Arnott banning keffiyehs in the Ontario Legislature because they are “intended to be a political statement,” as Arnott said in an email Wednesday.

PC Party MPP Robin Martin, who represents Eglinton–Lawrence, voted against the unanimous consent motion Thursday and told reporters she believes the speaker’s initial ruling was the correct one.

“We have to follow the rules of the legislature, otherwise we politicize the entire debate inside the legislature, and that’s not what it’s about. What it’s about is we come there and use our words to persuade, not items of clothing.”

When asked if she had defied a directive from the premier, Martin said, “It has nothing to do with the premier, it’s a decision of the speaker of the legislative assembly.”

Stiles told reporters Thursday she’s happy Ford is on her side on this issue, but added she is disappointed the motion didn’t pass.

“The premier needs to talk to his people and make sure they do the right thing,” she said.

Robin Martin answers questions from reporters.
PC Party MPP Robin Martin voted against a unanimous consent motion Thursday that would have overturned a ban on Keffiyehs at Queen’s Park. (Pelin Sidki/CBC)

Stiles first urged Arnott to reconsider the ban in an April 12 letter. She said concerns over the directive first surfaced after being flagged by members of her staff, however they have gained prominence after Sarah Jama, Independent MPP for Hamilton Centre, posted about the issue on X, formerly Twitter.

Jama was removed from the NDP caucus for her social media comments on the Israel-Hamas war shortly after Oct. 7. 

Jama has said she believes she was kicked out of the party because she called for a ceasefire in Gaza “too early” and because she called Israel an “apartheid state.”

Arnott told reporters Thursday that he began examining a ban on the Keffiyeh after one MPP made a complaint about another MPP, who he believes was Jama, who was wearing one.

Liberals also call for reversal

Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie also called for a reversal of the ban on Wednesday night.

“Here in Ontario, we are home to a diverse group of people from so many backgrounds. This is a time when leaders should be looking for ways to bring people together, not to further divide us. I urge Speaker Arnott to immediately reconsider this move to ban the keffiyeh,” Crombie said.

WATCH | An explainer on the cultural significance of keffiyehs:  

Keffiyeh: How it became a symbol of the Palestinian people

4 months ago

Duration 3:08

Keffiyehs are a common garment across the Arab world, but they hold a special meaning in the Palestinian resistance movement.

Stiles said MPPs have worn kilts, kirpans, vyshyvankas and chubas in the legislature, saying such items of clothing not only have national and cultural associations, but have also been considered at times as “political symbols in need of suppression.”

She said Indigenous and non-Indigenous members have also dressed in traditional regalia and these items cannot be separated from their historical and political significance. 

“The wearing of these important cultural and national clothing items in our Assembly is something we should be proud of. It is part of the story of who we are as a province,” she said.

“Palestinians are part of that story, and the keffiyeh is a traditional clothing item that is significant not only to them but to many members of Arab and Muslim communities. That includes members of my staff who have been asked to remove their keffiyehs in order to come to work. This is unacceptable.”

Stiles added that House of Commons and other provincial legislatures allow the wearing of keffiyehs in their chambers and the ban makes Ontario an “outlier.”

Suppression of cultural symbols part of genocide: MPP

Jama said on X that the ban is “unsurprising” but “nonetheless concerning” in a country that has a legacy of colonialism. “Part of committing genocide is the forceful suppression of cultural identity and cultural symbols,” she said in part. 

Sarah Jama
Sarah Jama, Independent MPP for Hamilton Centre, is pictured here outside her office in the Ontario Legislature wearing a keffiyeh. (Sarah Jama/Twitter)

“Seeing those in power in this country at all levels of government, from federal all the way down to school boards, aid Israel’s colonial regime with these tactics in the oppression of Palestinian people proves that reconciliation is nothing but a word when spoken by state powers,” she said.

Amira Elghawaby, Canada’s Special Representative on Combatting Islamophobia, said on X that it is “deeply ironic” on that keffiyehs were banned in the Ontario legislature on the 42nd anniversary of Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

“This is wrong and dangerous as we have already seen violence and exclusion impact Canadians, including Muslims of Palestinian descent, who choose to wear this traditional Palestinian clothing,” Elghawaby said.

Protesters who blocked a rail line in Toronto on Tuesday wear keffiyehs. The protest was organized by World Beyond War on April 16, 2024.
Protesters who blocked a rail line in Toronto on Tuesday are shown here wearing keffiyehs. The protest was organized by World Beyond War on April 16, 2024. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Arnott said the keffiyeh was not considered a “form of protest” in the legislature prior to statements and debates that happened in the House last fall.

“These items are not absolutes and are not judged in a vacuum,” he said.

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