Ontario could see between 250 and 400 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care in January, putting more strain on an already burdened health system, the province’s science advisory table says.
The latest modelling report from the group, released on Tuesday, said that cases are rising in most public health units, and recommends continued public health measures and increasing the speed of the campaign to vaccinate children aged five to 11 against the virus.
The projected climb in cases and admissions to ICUs does not account for the presence of the omicron variant, which injects multiple layers of uncertainty into the latest modelling and could mean the forecasts are overly conservative, the group said.
“COVID will almost certainly rise through (January) even before omicron hits us in full force. Case numbers count, because too many Ontarians remain un/under vaccinated and will end up in hospital,” the expert group said in a Twitter thread expanding on its report.
“We can’t predict omicron precisely, but it will almost certainly hit us hard and fast.”
At a news conference Tuesday afternoon, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said that the modelling is “disconcerting.” He also noted that unvaccinated people are driving the majority of hospitalizations and are most often the ones requiring intensive care.
“It’s absolutely preventable what is happening in our acute care sector,” he said.
“I am concerned about the coming months and the potential effect on our health-care system.”
WATCH | Medical officer of health discusses new modelling:
Latest COVID-19 modelling ‘disconcerting,’ Ontario’s top doctor says
2 hours ago
Duration 1:21
Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore also noted Thursday that unvaccinated people are driving the majority of hospitalizations and are most often the ones requiring intensive care. 1:21
Test positivity rates are climbing
Testing levels for the illness across Ontario have remained flat in recent months, while the overall test positivity rate continues to climb, suggesting a real rise in cases of COVID-19, according to the science table.
Just how much cases will climb is largely dependent on the pace of vaccinations, the group said. In a worst-case scenario — which includes no further public health restrictions, and about 30 per cent of five-to-11 year olds fully vaccinated by year’s end — daily cases could rise to nearly 3,000 by mid-January.
If vaccination coverage of that demographic rises to 50 per cent by the end of December, daily cases will likely top out in the range of 1,500 to 1,800 by mid-January, the group projected.
In a hypothetical scenario in which further public health restrictions are re-introduced — leading to a 15 per cent drop in overall transmission of the virus — and 30 per cent of five-to-11 year olds are fully immunized by the end of the year, cases could flatten out around 1,100 per day by some point in January.
As of Monday, roughly 22 per cent of eligible five-to-11 year olds had received a first dose of vaccine.
WATCH | No way to further loosen restrictions in face of omicron variant, science advisor says:
Keep holiday gatherings small in face of omicron variant, Ontario science adviser says
6 hours ago
Duration 4:23
Dr. Peter Jüni says people need to ‘use your common sense’ when it comes to having small gatherings over the holidays in the face of the omicron variant. 4:23
While overall admissions to hospital and ICUs have remained steady in recent weeks, further increases in cases will inevitably lead to more Ontarians requiring critical care, the group said.
Hospitals are dealing with severe burnout among staff and ongoing high demand for urgent non-COVID-related care, and could therefore struggle to deal with a surge of COVID-19 patients, the table said.
Ontario can ‘safely admit’ 300 COVID-19 patients to ICUs: government
In a news release, the Ontario government said that investments to increase hospital capacity mean the health-care system could “safely admit approximately 300 patients with COVID-related critical illness into ICUs without putting at risk urgent surgeries.
“This would allow the province’s hospital system to effectively manage the intake of ICU patients projected as the most likely scenario by expert modellers in the coming months. Ontario can quickly surge up capacity further if necessary,” the government said.
In the same news release, the government said it is once again holding off on lifting capacity limits in remaining higher-risk settings where proof of vaccination is required while officials monitor health-care indicators and study the omicron variant.
Those settings include food or drink establishments with dancing like nightclubs, and wedding receptions in meeting and event spaces where there is dancing, as well as strip clubs, sex clubs and bathhouses.
“We must remain cautious in the face of the virus,” Moore said.
“There’s no doubt that the months ahead will require continued vigilance.”
Omicron may be more transmissible than delta: science table
The confirmed presence of the omicron variant further complicates the situation in Ontario, the science table said. Early data suggests it is more transmissible than delta, and that people who have already been infected with the virus are at risk of reinfection — meaning omicron could be resistant to immunity.
That said, the early data also suggests that vaccination provides significant protection from developing severe COVID-19 symptoms from omicron.
Sisters Raya, 7, and Sky, 5, are shown getting a first dose of the pediatric Pfizer vaccine at The Boardwalk Vaccination Clinic in Waterloo, Ont. on Nov. 26, 2021. As of Monday, roughly 22 per cent of eligible five-to-11 year olds in Ontario had received a first dose of vaccine. (Submitted by Region of Waterloo Public Health)
At least 13 omicron cases have been detected so far in the province, and the London-area health unit investigating a potential cluster of 30 cases.
Toronto Public Health officials also said late Monday they are investigating the city’s first school-based case of the variant, at Precious Blood Catholic School.
928 new COVID-19 cases reported Tuesday
Meanwhile, Ontario reported 928 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday.
Ontario’s seven-day average of daily new cases is up to 975, a level not seen since the decline of the third wave in early June, and nearly a 23 per cent increase of last Tuesday.
Today’s case count is a 35 per cent jump from the same time last week.
Officials have said a rise in cases this fall and winter was expected, as the weather gets colder and more activities move indoors.
Some local public health units have recently imposed stricter rules in response. Chatham-Kent Public Health was the latest to announce tighter restrictions, set to take effect Friday. The changes include lower capacity limits for indoor gatherings, with the exception of weddings, funerals and religious services. Those events must, however, ensure that capacity is limited to a number that allows for physical distancing.
As of Monday, there were 340 people hospitalized with COVID-19, the most since Sept. 16. Of those, 165 were being treated in intensive care units, down from 168 the day before.
According to Critical Care Services Ontario, 13 more adults were admitted to ICUs yesterday and the seven-day average of COVID-19 patients in ICUs stands at 156.
The Ministry of Health also reported the deaths of nine more people with the illness, pushing the official toll to 10,036.
School-related outbreaks: There are currently 237 active outbreaks of COVID-19 tied to schools in the province, according to Public Health Ontario, with 219 of those in elementary schools, a new pandemic high. The previous high for elementary school-related outbreaks came on April 14, when there were 214.
Tests completed in the previous 24 hours: 26,136, with a 3.8 per cent positivity rate.
Active cases: 8,479.
Vaccinations: Nearly 81 per cent of all eligible Ontarians have had two doses.
EDMONTON – Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his career as the New Jersey Devils closed out their Western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored for the Devils (8-5-2) who have won three of their last four on the heels on a four-game losing skid.
The Oilers (6-6-1) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped.
Calvin Pickard made 13 stops between the pipes for Edmonton.
TAKEAWAYS
Devils: In addition to his goal, Bratt picked up his 12th assist of the young season to give him nine points in his last eight games and now 15 points overall. Nico Hischier remains in the team lead, picking up an assist of his own to give him 16 points for the campaign. He has a point in all but four games this season.
Oilers: Forward Leon Draisaitl was held pointless after recording six points in his previous two games and nine points in his previous four. Draisaitl usually has strong showings against the Devils, coming into the contest with an eight-game point streak against New Jersey and 11 goals in 17 games.
KEY MOMENT
New Jersey took a 2-0 lead on the power play with 3:26 remaining in the second period as Hischier made a nice feed into the slot to Bratt, who wired his third of the season past Pickard.
KEY RETURN?
Oilers star forward and captain Connor McDavid took part in the optional morning skate for the Oilers, leading to hopes that he may be back sooner rather than later. McDavid has been expected to be out for two to three weeks with an ankle injury suffered during the first shift of last Monday’s loss in Columbus.
OILERS DEAL FOR D-MAN
The Oilers have acquired defenceman Ronnie Attard from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for defenceman Ben Gleason.
The 6-foot-3 Attard has spent the past three season in the Flyers organization seeing action in 29 career games. The 25-year-old right-shot defender and Western Michigan University grad was originally selected by Philadelphia in the third round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Attard will report to the Oilers’ AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.
UP NEXT
Devils: Host the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.
Oilers: Host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, and Kareem Hunt pounded into the end zone from two yards out in overtime to give the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs a 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
DeAndre Hopkins had two touchdown receptions for the Chiefs (8-0), who drove through the rain for two fourth-quarter scores to take a 24-17 lead with 4:17 left. But then Kansas City watched as Baker Mayfield led the Bucs the other way in the final minute, hitting Ryan Miller in the end zone with 27 seconds to go in regulation time.
Tampa Bay (4-5) elected to kick the extra point and force overtime, rather than go for a two-point conversion and the win. And it cost the Buccaneers when Mayfield called tails and the coin flip was heads. Mahomes and the Chiefs took the ball, he was 5-for-5 passing on their drive in overtime, and Hunt finished his 106-yard rushing day with the deciding TD plunge.
Travis Kelce had 14 catches for 100 yards with girlfriend Taylor Swift watching from a suite, and Hopkins finished with eight catches for 86 yards as the Chiefs ran their winning streak to 14 dating to last season. They became the sixth Super Bowl champion to start 8-0 the following season.
Mayfield finished with 200 yards and two TDs passing for the Bucs, who have lost four of their last five.
It was a memorable first half for two players who had been waiting to play in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bucs’ Rachaad White grew up about 10 minutes away in a tough part of Kansas City, but his family could never afford a ticket for him to see a game. He wound up on a circuitous path through Division II Nebraska-Kearney and a California junior college to Arizona State, where he eventually became of a third-round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2022 draft.
Two year later, White finally got into Arrowhead — and the end zone. He punctuated his seven-yard scoring run in the second quarter, which gave the Bucs a 7-3 lead, by nearly tossing the football into the second deck.
Then it was Hopkins’ turn in his first home game since arriving in Kansas City from a trade with the Titans.
The three-time All-Pro, who already had caught four passes, reeled in a third-down heave from Mahomes amid triple coverage for a 35-yard gain inside the Tampa Bay five-yard line. Three plays later, Mahomes found him in the back of the end zone, and Hopkins celebrated his first TD with the Chiefs with a dance from “Remember the Titans.”
Tampa Bay tried to seize control with consecutive scoring drives to start the second half. The first ended with a TD pass to Cade Otton, the latest tight end to shred the Chiefs, and Chase McLaughlin’s 47-yard field goal gave the Bucs a 17-10 lead.
The Chiefs answered in the fourth quarter. Mahomes marched them through the rain 70 yards for a tying touchdown pass, which he delivered to Samaje Perine while landing awkwardly and tweaking his left ankle, and then threw a laser to Hopkins on third-and-goal from the Buccaneers’ five-yard line to give Kansas City the lead.
Tampa Bay promptly went three-and-out, but its defence got the ball right back, and this time Mayfield calmly led his team down field. His capped the drive with a touchdown throw to Miller — his first career TD catch — with 27 seconds to go, and Tampa Bay elected to play for overtime.
UP NEXT
Buccaneers: Host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Darcy Kuemper made 16 saves for his first shutout of the season and 32nd overall, helping the Los Angeles Kings beat the Nashville Predators 3-0 on Monday night.
Adrian Kempe had a goal and an assist and Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala also scored. The Kings have won two of their last three.
Juuse Saros made 24 saves for the Predators. They are 1-2-1 in their last four.
Kopitar opened the scoring with 6:36 remaining in the opening period. Saros denied the Kings captain’s first shot, but Kopitar collected the rebound below the goal line and banked it off the netminder’s skate.
Fiala, a former Predator, made it 2-0 35 seconds into the third.
The Kings held Nashville to just three third-period shots on goal, the first coming with 3:55 remaining and Saros pulled for an extra attacker.
Elsewhere in the NHL on Monday:
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DEVILS 3 OILERS 0
EDMONTON, Alta. (AP) — Jake Allen made 31 saves for his second shutout of the season and 26th of his NHL career, helping the New Jersey Devils close their western Canadian road trip with a 3-0 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Jesper Bratt had a goal and an assist and Stefan Noesen and Timo Meier also scored. The Devils improved to 8-5-2. They have won three of their last four after a four-game skid.
Calvin Pickard made 13 saves for Edmonton. The Oilers had won two straight.
