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Risk assets crushed with few signs drama is over – BNN Bloomberg

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A selloff in the riskier corners of the market deepened as the U.K.’s plan to lift its economy fuelled concerns about heightened inflation that could lead to higher rates, adding to fears of a global recession.

It was a sea of red across equity trading desks, with the S&P 500 briefly breaching its June closing trough — and failing to pierce its intraday low for the year. Chartists looking for signs of where the rout might ease had identified that as a potential area for support. Yet the lack of full-blown capitulation may be an indication the drawdown isn’t over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slashed its target for U.S. stocks, warning that a dramatic upward shift in the outlook for rates will weigh on valuations.

As risk-off sentiment took hold, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” soared to a three-month high, with the Cboe Volatility Index momentarily topping 30. Throughout the year, the U.S. equity benchmark has hit near-term lows when the VIX was above that level, according to DataTrek Research.

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A surge in the greenback to a fresh record swept aside global currencies. The euro slid to its weakest since 2002, while sterling hit a 37-year low — with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers saying that “naive” U.K. policies may create the circumstances for the pound to sink past parity with the dollar. 

Treasury 10-year yields fell after earlier topping 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, two-year US rates climbed for 12 straight days — an up streak not seen since at least 1976. 

“It appears that traders and investors are going to throw in the towel on this week in what feels like ‘the sky is falling’ type of event,” said Kenny Polcari, chief strategist at SlateStone Wealth. “Once everyone stops saying that they ‘think a recession is coming’ and accepts the fact that it is here already – then the psyche will change.”

Liz Truss’s new U.K. government delivered the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972 at a time when the Bank of England is struggling to rein in inflation, which is running at almost five times its target. The plunge in gilts means that investors are now betting the central bank boosts its benchmark lending rate by a full point to 3.25 per cent in November, which would be the sharpest increase since 1989.

Amid heightened fears over a hard economic landing, commodities got hammered across the board. West Texas Intermediate settled below $79 a barrel for the first time since January, posting its longest stretch of weekly losses this year. Not even gold — a haven asset — was able to gain due to a surging dollar, and sank to the lowest level in two years.

The greenback’s strength has been unrelenting and will also exert a “meaningful drag” on corporate earnings — serving as a key headwind for stocks, said David Rosenberg, founder of his namesake research firm.

KKR & Co. sees potential trouble ahead, including a mild recession next year, with the Fed narrowly focused on driving up unemployment to tame inflation. The US labor shortage is so severe that it’s possible the Fed’s tightening doesn’t work, wrote Henry McVey, chief investment officer of the firm’s balance sheet.

“This is a more draconian outcome than corporate profits falling,” he noted, “because it will encourage the Fed to tighten even further.”

Investors are flocking to cash and shunning almost every other asset class as they turn the most pessimistic since the global financial crisis, according to Bank of America Corp. Investor sentiment is “unquestionably” the worst it’s been since the turmoil of 2008, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

“It’s a realization that interest rates are going to continue to rise here and that that’s going to put pressure on earnings,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Valuations are still a little high even though they’ve come down, interest rates still have a lot further to go up and what impact that will have on the global economy — are we headed for a sharper recession than the recession everybody expected? I think it’s a combination of all of that, it’s not good news.”

‘MEANINGFUL DRAG’

Amid heightened fears over a hard economic landing, commodities got hammered across the board. West Texas Intermediate tumbled below $79 a barrel for the first time since January, posting its longest stretch of weekly losses this year. Not even gold — a haven asset — was able to gain due to a surging dollar, and sank to the lowest level in two years.

The greenback’s strength has been unrelenting and will also exert a “meaningful drag” on corporate earnings — serving as a key headwind for stocks, said David Rosenberg, founder of his namesake research firm.

KKR & Co. sees potential trouble ahead, including a mild recession next year, with the Fed narrowly focused on driving up unemployment to tame inflation. The US labor shortage is so severe that it’s possible the Fed’s tightening doesn’t work, wrote Henry McVey, chief investment officer of the firm’s balance sheet.

“This is a more draconian outcome than corporate profits falling,” he noted, “because it will encourage the Fed to tighten even further.”

Investors are flocking to cash and shunning almost every other asset class as they turn the most pessimistic since the global financial crisis, according to Bank of America Corp. Investor sentiment is “unquestionably” the worst it’s been since the crisis of 2008, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

“It’s a realization that interest rates are going to continue to rise here and that that’s going to put pressure on earnings,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Valuations are still a little high even though they’ve come down, interest rates still have a lot further to go up and what impact that will have on the global economy — are we headed for a sharper recession than the recession everybody expected? I think it’s a combination of all of that, it’s not good news.”

EXTREME PESSIMISM

Stocks are indeed still far from being obvious bargains. At the low in June, the S&P 500 was trading at 18 times earnings, a multiple that surpassed trough valuations seen in all previous 11 bear cycles, data compiled by Bloomberg show. In other words, should equities recover from here, this bear-market bottom will have been the most expensive since the 1950s. 

Bleak sentiment is often considered a contrarian indicator for the US stock market, under the belief that extreme pessimism may signal brighter times ahead. But history suggests that equity losses may accelerate even further from here before the current bear market ends, according to Ned Davis Research.

In another threat to stocks, different iterations of the so-called Fed model, which compares bond yields to stock earnings’ yields, show equities are least appealing relative to corporate bonds and Treasuries since 2009 and early 2010, respectively. This signal is getting attention among investors, who can now know look to other markets for similar or better returns.

“The next question is when and how far do earnings estimates decline for 2023,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management. “Earnings estimates for next year are too high, they really have not come down, and as that happens you’re going to have further equity pain because in addition to the multiple coming down via the yield mechanism, the earnings you’re applying that multiple to are going to come down as well.”

As slower growth and tighter financial conditions start catching up to companies, a wave of downgrades will come for the US investment-grade corporate bond market.

That’s according to strategists at Barclays Plc, who say companies are facing margin pressure thanks to high inventories, supply chain issues, and a strong dollar. The firm expects the average monthly volume of downgrades to increase to $180 billion of bonds over the next half year. The current monthly average is closer to $40 billion.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.7 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7 per cent
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6 per cent
  • The MSCI World index fell 2.1 per cent

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.3 per cent
  • The euro fell 1.5 per cent to $0.9693
  • The British pound fell 3.5 per cent to $1.0868
  • The Japanese yen fell 0.6 per cent to 143.30 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 2.2 per cent to $18,823.63
  • Ether fell 2.4 per cent to $1,292.77

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.68 per cent
  • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.02 per cent
  • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 33 basis points to 3.83 per cent

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.3 per cent to $79.06 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 1.7 per cent to $1,651.80 an ounce

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Flair flight from Vancouver overshoots Ontario runway | CTV News – CTV News Vancouver

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Vancouver couple Charissa Landicho and Mac Bradley just wanted a quick and cheap getaway, but a turbulent landing was not on their itinerary.

“I was definitely in shock because it was an overnight flight. I woke up, just, ‘What’s going on?'” Landicho said.

“We touched down and we could hear a loud thud. And it lifted up and it (went) down again,” she recalled.

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It was a frightening experience for the 134 passengers on the Flair Airlines Boeing 737, which went off the runway just before 6:30 a.m. Friday morning in southern Ontario.

The flight from Vancouver was landing at the Kitchener-Waterloo airport when it overshot the runway and ended up in the grass.

“To me, it felt like we pulled right and then next thing you know, we’re off the tarmac, in the field pretty much, bouncing around, smacking around,” said Bradley.

“We probably went like 50 to 100 metres off the runway,” he continued.

He said their plane tickets cost about $100 each, roundtrip, potentially saving them hundreds by going with the budget airline.

With no announcement or warning, the couple said they were only told to stay put and waited an hour to finally get off the plane.

“It was a little bit questionable because it seemed like nobody really knew what to do on the plane other than just trying to keep calm. So that was a little bit unnerving,” said Bradley.

“And the fact that we just got an automated text after asking us to leave a Google review on our experience was a little satirical,” he added.

In a statement, Flair Airlines said there were no reported injuries and passengers were taken to the terminal by bus.

There is no word on what caused the aircraft to overshoot the runway, but the Transportation Safety Board (TSB) has been deployed to investigate.

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Black Friday impacted by changing shopping habits – CP24

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Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press


Published Saturday, November 26, 2022 2:04PM EST

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When Shopify Inc.’s Harley Finkelstein surveys November’s retail landscape, he finds it hard to see where Black Friday stops and Cyber Monday begins.

The annual pre-holiday sales blitzes meant to encourage customers to drop cash on discounted goods have bled together in recent years, with stores extending Black Friday promotions beyond a single day and online retailers offering Cyber Monday deals all week — or all month.

“Black Friday/Cyber Monday used to be a weekend, now it’s more of a season,” said the president of the Ottawa e-commerce giant.

Many in the retail industry feel the divisions will be even more hazy this Cyber Monday as the COVID-19 health crisis continues to reshape shopping habits.

During the pandemic, which saw stores temporarily close and people retreat inside their homes, there was a surge in online shopping.

As measures meant to quell the virus eased, many kept shopping online — but not at the rate some brands anticipated.

“Online shopping grew in popularity, obviously, through the pandemic, but it’s actually fallen off now because people are returning back to the store,” said Lisa Hutcheson, managing partner at J.C. Williams Group, a consulting firm.

“E-commerce spending is actually down year-to-date 11.5 per cent.”

The consumer shift back to brick-and-mortar stores blindsided Shopify, which had banked on online shopping continuing to accelerate at pandemic rates.

“It’s now clear that bet didn’t pay off,” chief executive Tobi Lutke said in a July statement announcing the company was laying off 10 per cent of staff as a result of the misjudgment.

The company’s stock traded for as high as $212 in the past year but has averaged closer to $50 in recent days.

So there’s a lot riding on the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend.

“Black Friday/Cyber Monday is sort of our Super Bowl,” said Finkelstein. “The culture and the energy at the company is really high right now.”

Black Friday

A survey his company conducted with 24,000 consumers and 9,000 small and medium businesses around the world found 59 per cent of Canadians planned to spend the same amount as or more than last year on Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend. That figure rose to 74 per cent for those between the age of 25 and 34.

Finkelstein finds it hard to predict how the weekend will go, though he suspects it will be very different from last year, when the country was consumed with product shortages and the Omicron wave of COVID-19.

“This Black Friday/Cyber Monday seems far less frantic than last year,” he said. “There are less supply chain issues, more physical stores are open, there’s more inventory. There’s better capacity planning at the shipping companies.”

However, there is a new problem: inflation remains stubbornly high.

Michelle Wasylyshen of the Retail Council of Canada says “consumers tightened their belts a little” in recent months but still plan to spend the same as they did last holiday season, roughly $790.

“The difference this year is that they will be looking for more meaningful or practical gifts,” she wrote in an email. “They might also decrease the number of people they buy for or will give fewer gifts per person, but they do plan to shop.”

Finkelstein also foresees a more measured approach.

“They may not buy five things they have mediocre love for. They may buy two things they deeply want,” said Finkelstein.

“And they may also be thoughtful about how they buy … Is there a discount coming? I’ll wait until Thursday night or until Cyber Monday.”

The term Cyber Monday was coined in 2005 by the National Retail Federation, which noticed the Monday after Black Friday had delivered a big spike for online sales and traffic in the prior two years.

“We won’t be seeing quite the same spike that we have in the past,” Hutcheson predicted.

Some of that forecast comes from the stretched shopping window but also because some people are going to stick with their pandemic habits of online shopping.

Moneris is predicting Cyber Monday will be the busiest online shopping day, following a trend set in 2019 and 2020. However, Black Friday is still expected to be the busiest day in terms of total transaction count and dollars spent across all mediums.

Hutcheson said the week will play out as an “omnichannel view.”

Omnichannel is an industry term referring to making shopping seamless across online and mobile platforms as well as brick-and-mortar stores.

Finkelstein likes the term because the retail industry “is no longer online versus offline.”

“Saying omnichannel is a strategy will soon be akin to saying colour TV,” he said. “It is the norm and so consumers are shopping everywhere and everywhere.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 25, 2022.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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Black Friday sales: Smaller crowds of shoppers reported in Toronto as deals spread over weeks – CP24

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Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press


Published Friday, November 25, 2022 9:20AM EST


Last Updated Friday, November 25, 2022 2:40PM EST

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Canadians hunting for Black Friday deals did so without facing long lines or crowded shopping malls this year, as an extended period of sales and decades-high inflation weighs on consumers and prompts some to rein in spending.

Retailers have stretched deals over several weeks and offered similar discounts online, taking some of the frenzy out of the holiday shopping event.

Several big box stores in the Greater Toronto Area, such as Best Buy and Walmart, lacked the usual early morning lineups that once epitomized Black Friday.

The Eaton Centre in the heart of Toronto appeared busy around lunchtime, but closer to a typical Friday rather than swarming with the crowds and queues seen in previous years. Few stores appeared to have lines of waiting customers.

A busy stretch of the city’s Queen Street West, which includes H&M, Zara, Aritzia and Aldo stores, similarly didn’t show signs of additional shoppers.

“We’re seeing a dilution of Black Friday as a physical shopping event where you go to the store early in the morning,” retail analyst Bruce Winder said Friday.

“It’s finally sort of hit that tipping point where it’s much less about the day and it’s more about the shopping period.”

The elongation of Black Friday sales has lessened the urgency for consumers to shop on one particular day, said Lisa Hutcheson, managing partner at consulting firm J.C. Williams Group.

“The need to line up isn’t as necessary,” she said Friday. “Most of the retailers have been on sale a good portion of the week already.”

Shopper Amanda Ram said she normally comes to the Eaton Centre to check out Black Friday deals, though COVID-19 put a pause on that.

She said she normally tries to hit the mall before the after-work rush, but though it was busy she still noticed it wasn’t as packed as she remembered from before the pandemic – fewer and shorter lines, for one.

Overall Black Friday sales are expected to be strong as inflation intensifies the hunt for deals, experts say.

Yet the rising cost of living will also lead customers to “cherry pick” sales, Winder said.

Ram said she’s being more careful with her money as she shops for the holidays this year. With inflation driving up the price of her mortgage and everyday essentials, she feels less likely to get caught up in the allure of a great deal, and plans to do some online comparison at home before heading back to the mall.

She said she thinks inflation is definitely affecting how many people shop this weekend and heading into the holidays.

“It’s got to be on people’s minds.”

Stores that offer blowout deals of up to 70 per cent off will be busy while retailers with more tepid discounts won’t see the same traffic online or in stores, Winder said.

“If you’re a retailer and you’re trying to move something at 25 or 30 per cent off – it ain’t gonna sell,” he said.

Some retailers, especially those with high levels of inventory such as apparel, will likely offer bigger sales in stores than online.

“If the merchandise is already there and they’re running short on space, they’ll want to turn it into cash – especially if they don’t have room to pack it up and hold it for another year,” Winder said.

Meanwhile, after years of pandemic health restrictions, shopping in brick-and-mortar stores is expected to make a comeback this holiday season, including on Black Friday.

“We continue to see increased levels and excitement for in-person shopping across all our 18 shopping centres,” Sal Iacono, executive vice-president of operations for Cadillac Fairview, said in an emailed statement.

The company, which operates a number of malls across the country including the Eaton Centre in Toronto and the Pacific Centre in Vancouver, has seen retailers extend promotions over a longer period of time but still expects Black Friday to be a big shopping day, he said.

“We anticipate Black Friday to be one of the busiest shopping days at all our retail centres and we are looking forward to continuing to see the prolonged momentum throughout the entire season,” Iacono said.

Still, while some Canadians are eager to return to in-person shopping, others now prefer to do their holiday gift-buying online.

Bradley Thompson of Oakville, Ont., said he plans to do all his Christmas shopping on Black Friday – but won’t be stepping foot in a store.

“I’m not a big in-store shopper. I’m a real millennial in the sense that I’ll be doing all my shopping online,” he said.

“As a personal challenge, I try to get all of my Christmas shopping done during the Black Friday sales.”

He usually checks the sales at the big players like Amazon, Walmart and Best Buy, but Thompson said he’s increasingly also shopping at Etsy and smaller local businesses online.

Overall, he said the Black Friday deals he’s come across are good – but not great.

“The discounts don’t seem to be quite as steep as they used to be but they run them a little bit longer,” Thompson said.

“Inflation is crazy right now though, so every little bit I can save helps.”

– With files from Rosa Saba in Toronto.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 25, 2022.

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