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Risks are mounting for Turkey's economy | News – Aljazeera.com

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Turkey’s economy faces growing risks as it enters a downturn with dwindling reserves and a fragile lira, financial markets signalled on Friday, as data showed factories slowing due to the coronavirus outbreak.

For the first time since the worst day of a currency crisis in 2018, the Turkish lira on Wednesday briefly breached seven lira to the United States dollar after the central bank slashed rates twice as much as expected. It stood at 6.97 at 11:42 GMT on Friday.

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Traders have pushed up the odds of a default on government debt in the next 12 months, reflecting unease with a drop in the central bank’s net reserves below $26bn last week from more than $40bn at the beginning of the year.

Turkey faces the combination of high external debt of some $170bn this year, an inability so far to secure a foreign funding source, and the rising costs of girding the economy for a fallout from the pandemic.

Central bank reserves have thinned in large part because of state banks’ market interventions to stabilise the lira that began more than a year ago but ramped up in recent months. The lira has fallen 14 percent so far in 2020.

State banks have sold nearly $20bn in interventions this year through mid-April, according to central bank data and bankers’ calculations. One trader said there were signs of heavy resistance by state banks at seven versus the dollar this week.

Turkey has the fiscal capacity to spend more to absorb shocks in the economy, David Hauner at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note.

But it “remains vulnerable to market volatility and a stronger dollar in particular with high external financing needs. A lack of policy clarity further holds back the credit profile,” he said.

Plunging confidence

Business confidence among Turkish manufacturers tumbled to 66.8 points in April from 99.7 a month earlier, central bank data showed. The bearish view was reflected in the capacity utilisation rate, which dropped to 61.6 percent in April from 75.3 percent.

The majority of automotive and textiles factories have halted production in part due to cancelled orders from Europe, Minister of Industry and Technology Mustafa Varank told an auto industry meeting.

Trade, spending and consumer confidence – which hit a record low this month – have also stumbled since measures taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus have pushed Turkey’s economy towards its second recession in less than two years.

To curb a surge in cases of the COVID-19 disease, the government has imposed partial stay-at-home orders, closed restaurants, cafes and schools, largely shuttered borders and slowed domestic movement.

Weekly bank and credit card spending was 15.2 billion lira ($2.2bn) as of mid-April, down from 19.6 billion lira ($2.8bn) a month earlier, separate data showed.

The risk of a default in the next five years is at 600 basis points and near an all-time high touched earlier this month, while the 12-month CDS traded at 438 basis points.

Turkey’s “large external financing requirements, low foreign exchange reserves and weak monetary policy credibility … make it vulnerable to market sentiment, [and] we are seeing some stresses,” Douglas Winslow, Fitch Ratings head of European sovereigns, said on Thursday.

Shorter-term gauges of lira volatility rose on Friday to near one-year highs even while they fell in energy-producing EM currencies, like Russia’s rouble and Mexico’s peso, after a modest rebound in oil prices over the last few days.

SOURCE:
Reuters news agency

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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