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ROGER TAYLOR: RBC says Canadian economy will function differently post COVID-19 – The Telegram

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A report released by the Royal Bank of Canada on Wednesday suggests that not all industry sectors will come out of the COVID-19 pandemic equally and, according to RBC senior vice president John Stackhouse, the same could be said about the regions.

The RBC Economics report, Navigating 2021, suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic is helping to transform the Canadian economy. Just as some industry sectors are moving into a fast-moving period of growth and innovation, there are other parts of the economy built on a “legacy model” may not have the same experience.

In an interview, Stackhouse told me he expects places with a significant tech-oriented economy, such as in Halifax, should come out of the pandemic fairly well. However, the oil and gas sector should have a more difficult time and that doesn’t bode well for the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador, which he described as “challenging.”

The tourism sector, which is very important to the Atlantic Canadian economy, will take a while to make a comeback, according to the report. Much of how the tourism industry performs will depend on the roll out of the COVID-19 vaccine, and whether it is able to rebuild the confidence of potential tourists.

“Navigating 2021 will require Canadians to continue to build that decentralized future and rebuild some of the centralized model that remains a powerful driver of innovation, efficiency and diversity,” RBC states in the report.

Reopening of the economy and an unleashing of pent-up demand won’t be enough to bring GDP back to its pre-pandemic state in the coming year, according to the bank. The hardest-hit sectors will only pick up in a sustainable way after the virus’s full risk has faded, the bank said in a news release.

“The scar tissue of permanent business closures may delay a full recovery until at least 2022,” RBC predicts.

The structural damage, through long-term unemployment and delayed investments, could impede any economic rebound, it states in the report.

“Until public safety and economic confidence are established, large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus will continue to be needed. Fiscal programs in particular are expected to focus on the pandemic’s lasting damage to displaced workers, small businesses and sectors that rely on the large-scale gathering of people.”

The pandemic has helped to entrench online shopping and those who have been working from home have learned to adjust to the new way of doing their jobs and may encourage people to move away from the big cities to friendly environments like the Maritimes and still be able to do their work remotely.

“The 2020s is starting to look like a new era of decentralization, built on the backs of digital platforms. The convenience is extraordinary. So too may be the consequences,” Stackhouse was quoted in a news release.

People who are able to seize on the redistribution of economic activity will thrive, while others who will need new skills in order to find new employment will continue to need new kinds of government support, according to the report.

Canadians at the bottom end of the wage scale, many of them women earning less than $800 a week, have experienced a significant portion of the job cuts. Higher earners, one the other hand, have seen their employment opportunities improve during the downturn, it said in the report.

“Some of those who have lost their jobs will opt to go back to school or retrain, but those who could benefit most from upskilling have historically been the least likely to do so. Without a strategy to get lower-wage workers back on the job, the uneven damage of the recession could turn into an uneven recovery,” Stackhouse said in the release.

The federal government will be carrying a heavy debt burden in 2021, which will be slightly mitigated by low interest rates, Stackhouse told me. But the low rates will not last forever and the key will be how government goes about address its debt.

He said the government supports were necessary to keep the economy functioning during the pandemic but it was interesting to note that as governments were helping to subsidize individuals adversely affected by the economic upset created by the pandemic, at the same time Canadians were socking away money in their savings.

To help the economy to recover from the pandemic, Stackhouse said, government will need to encourage Canadians to spend some of their savings, perhaps through tax holidays or events like that to keep money moving, creating economic growth.

But he warned the recovery from the pandemic will be a grind.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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