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Rush of immigrants to slow bank of Canada rate hikes, CIBC says – BNN

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High immigration rates will allow the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates at a more moderate pace than markets expect, according to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

The increased flow of newcomers and their suitability for the needs of the job market “will work to provide the Bank of Canada with some flexibility in the pace of monetary tightening due to the taming impact of new immigrants on wage inflation,” Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC, said Thursday in a report to investors.  

Wage growth in Canada has lagged behind the U.S as their economies have recovered from the Covid-19 crisis, a factor some attribute to the stark differences in immigration policies between the two countries.

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After a pandemic lull, Canada welcomed more than 400,000 immigrants in 2021. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is weighing an increase to its target of 411,000 this year, and has fast tracked permanent residents for citizenship. 

As the labor market nears full employment, the additional pool of new workers is helping fill record job vacancies and possibly mute wage inflation, even with consumer price gains at the highest in three decades. 

Immigration and its impact on wages give the Bank of Canada “enough justification to hike more slowly than what’s priced in by the market,” Tal said. Trading in overnight swaps suggests six rate hikes are priced in by the end of this year, with a more than 70 per cent chance of the cycle beginning next week. CIBC is forecasting three hikes, likely beginning in April.

Tal also said household formation and the subsequent impact on housing demand could be understated due to the government’s increasing use of permanent residents as a source of immigration.

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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