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Russia Economy Shrinks for Second Quarter With Worst Yet to Come

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(Bloomberg) — Russia’s economy shrank for a second quarter as the shock of sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted trade and upended domestic demand, with the worst of the downturn likely early next year.

Gross domestic product fell an annual 4% in the third quarter, in line with the central bank’s estimate but faring better than every forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. It follows a drop of 4% in the prior three months, in what was Russia’s first GDP contraction in over a year.

In a statement on Wednesday, the statistics service, also known as Rosstat, cited a steep decline in wholesale and retail trade alongside a drop in industries including manufacturing.

A boost in government spending and Russia’s ability to divert exports to friendly nations have helped offset the damage wrought by sanctions, with construction among the few sectors to expand last quarter thanks in part to a state program of subsidized mortgages.

Expectations for the economy have shifted from a near-collapse soon after the invasion of Ukraine to a shallower recession that will extend well beyond 2022. Ahead is a contraction that may represent Russia deepest slump since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Another Bloomberg poll has predicted a steeper GDP decline this quarter before the recession culminates with a decline of over 8% in the first three months of 2023. Just two months ago, the low point was expected already this year.

“We see a persisting supply-side shock and a forced structural transformation to a lower-tech economy resulting in a prolonged recession and lower potential growth,” Morgan Stanley economists including Alina Slyusarchuk said in a report this week.

The economy may not eke out growth until the third quarter of 2023, the survey shows.

Bloomberg Economics predicts GDP will shrink 3.5% in 2022 and 2% in 2023, with the government possibly dialing back on some of the support measures it used to shore up demand and construction.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“The Russian economy will continue to shrink over the next six months for two reasons. First, the energy commodity sector and manufacturing will continue to shrink as sanctions bite. Second, some of the key tools Russia used to boost domestic demand throughout this year, such as indiscriminate mortgage subsidies, are now exhausted.”

–Alexander Isakov, Russia economist.

Looming restrictions on oil shipments will test Russia’s resilience, with exports of gas to Europe already plunging amid supply disruptions, and consumer demand under increasing pressure from President Vladimir Putin’s call-up of reservists to fight in Ukraine.

Russia’s oil and gas production started declining in September, creating a drag on industrial output and leading to a worse contraction than expected. Prospects are turning even more grim, with state gas producer Gazprom PJSC reporting its daily exports are now extending the multi-year lows hit last month.

Speaking to lawmakers on Tuesday, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned the state in the economy could worsen.

“We really need to look at the situation very soberly and with our eyes open,” she said. “Things may get worse, we understand that.”

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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