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Russia’s SWIFT Ban Could Send Shockwaves Through Oil And Commodity Markets | OilPrice.com


Alex Kimani

Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. 

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  • Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine was originally met with a relatively tepid response from world leaders, but now sanctions are intensifying key Russian banks are banned from SWIFT.
  • The increasingly aggressive stance being taken by Western leaders against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine suggests Russia’s energy exports could yet be sanctioned.
  • It isn’t only oil and gas that will be affected by the SWIFT ban, with supply disruptions likely to occur for aluminum, copper, nickel, and cobalt among others.

After months of frantic diplomacy, the West’s worst fears finally came true on Thursday after Russian forces launched their long-feared attack on Ukraine. Russian forces have repeatedly fired missiles at military control centers in Kyiv and other regions, though they have failed to decisively take any key city amid stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces. On the same day, Western leaders slapped a raft of fresh sanctions on Russia, including the exclusion of Russia’s largest financial institutions from global financial systems; imposing an asset freeze against all major Russian banks, canceling all export permits with Russia, and prohibiting all major Russian companies from raising financing within their territories, among other measures.

President Biden talked about blocking select Russian banks from the global financial systems and also announced export restrictions that would “include restrictions on Semiconductors (NASDAQ:SOXX), Telecommunication (NYSEARCA:XTL), encryption security, lasers, sensors, navigation, Avionics (BATS:ITA), and maritime technology.”

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Prime Minister Johnson announced plans to “exclude Russian banks from the UK financial system.” However, no plans were made to force UK businesses to divest from Russian holdings. Despite that, BP (NYSE:BP) announced that it would sell its ~20 percent share in Rosneft (OTCPK:RNFTF). BP saw its shares fall by more than 5 percent on the news.

Understandably, Ukraine feels that the West has not been doing nearly enough to deter Russia. Ukraine’s foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has been calling on the West to block Russia from the SWIFT payments system, a move opposed by Germany due to its heavy reliance on Russian gas supplies. SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, is a secure messaging system that facilitates rapid cross-border payments, making international trade flow smoothly.

Now, Ukraine may finally get its wish: Western allies, including Germany, have finally agreed to unleash the ultimate ‘financial nuclear weapon’ on Russia by excluding key Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system.

On Saturday, a spokesperson for the German told Reuters that Germany and its Western allies have agreed to cut Russia out of the SWIFT global payment system in what would mark a third sanctions package aimed at halting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions agreed with the United States, France, Canada, Italy, Great Britain, and the European Commission also include limiting the ability of Russia’s central bank to support the rouble.

And now, some analysts are saying that a SWIFT ban on Russian banks is likely to lift oil prices well above $100 a barrel.

Amrita Sen, a consultant at Energy Aspects, has told Reuters that Brent crude prices will definitely go back above $100 and probably return to the highs of $105 if the ban takes effect. “But I wouldn’t rule out a quick move to $110 a barrel,” she added.

And, she seems to be right on the money.

Late last week, crude oil prices began paring their war-driven rally as sanctions on Russia have so far avoided impacting the country’s oil and gas exports, and have also not blocked Russia’s access to the SWIFT financial system. However, the oil price rally appears to be back in full force, with Brent up 5.06% to trade at $102.89 per barrel in Monday’s intraday trading while WTI climbed 5.24% to change hands at $96.39 per barrel.

Oil prices last jumped above $100 a barrel when Russian forces invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, with Brent breaching $105 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014.

Commodity Rally

But oil is not the only commodity whose supply would be severely disrupted if Russian banks are banned from SWIFT.

At least 10 oil and commodities traders have told Reuters that flows of Russian commodities to the West will be severely disrupted or halted for days, if not weeks, until clarity is established on exemptions.

Russia produces 10% of the world’s oil and 40% of European natural gas but is also a major exporter of aluminum, copper, nickel, and cobalt, among other key commodities, all of which could see price spikes either due to direct bans or through Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT.

Related: Goldman: Only Demand Destruction Can Keep Oil Prices From Rising

Previously, European leaders were rumored to be mulling sanctions on the Russian energy sector; however, the European Commission President has cleared the air, announcing that Europe would instead “make it impossible for Russia to upgrade its oil refineries.” Ironically, Europe has been buying more gas from Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY)  than before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  

In a previous article, we reported that the markets remain deeply concerned about the risk of a full energy supply disruption to the EU–which receives roughly 40% of its gas via Russian pipelines, several of which run through Ukraine. According to David Frum of The Atlantic and author of Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy (2020), Russia’s Ukraine invasion has been greatly aided by high energy prices, especially natural gas, in the ongoing energy boom. Frum notes that the price of Russian gas on spot markets surpassed $10 per million metric BTUs in June 2021 before tripling to the current $30 per million metric BTUs. The sharp rise in energy prices has helped Russia’s foreign exchange reserves hit $630 billion, or 42% of the country’s $1.5 trillion GDP.

With those massive financial resources, Russia could inflict real havoc on world energy markets if it chooses to, with the natural gas markets likely to be the hardest hit because gas is harder to substitute. In theory, Russian pipeline gas could be partly replaced by liquid natural gas from the United States, Qatar, or other suppliers; unfortunately, ramping up LNG production and shipment is very difficult to do in a hurry.

However, Russia has so far not shown any intentions of stopping oil and gas exports to Europe and the rest of the world as part of the tit-for-tat measures Putin has warned about, preferring to ratchet up rhetoric about nuclear warfare. President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert in a dramatic escalation of tensions with the West over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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