The Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority (SREDA) calculates the economy of the province’s largest city is 67.8-per cent recovered from the pandemic as of Thursday (though most of the factors it takes into account are from much earlier in the month).
But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a global financial watchdog, says inequality and another wave of COVID-19 infections could threaten any gains.
SREDA CEO Alex Fallon told Global News that agricultural exports, the housing market and consumer and retail spending is driving the bulk of the recovery right now. He said the hospitality sector is helping, with people taking staycations in the city, but is still dragging behind.
“The economic recovery in the Saskatoon region is probably a little bit better (than) we expected it to be,” he said.
He added that the rest of the recovery will depend on the continuing performance of the housing market, as well as home renovations and consumer confidence in the economy.
He predicted, albeit cautiously, that Saskatoon will recover fully by the end of the year.
A recent IMF report states any recovery is threatened by unequal vaccine distribution.
The IMF’s July World Economic Outlook predicts a 6 per cent increase in the global economy (which coincidentally matches the Bank of Canada’s most recent prediction for the Canadian economy) – if infections stay low.
“Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls,” the report states.
“The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere,” and so long as segments of the population remain susceptible.
It says a new, extra infectious or deadly variant would disrupt any recovery efforts because it is likely to spread around the planet.
The report also states developing economies are susceptible to advanced economies’ overcorrections targeting inflation.
The combination of both “would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.”
The cause of the inflation, it says, are low commodity prices in 2019 and supply issues as the cause of rising prices this year.
It predicts inflation will likely subside by next year, though notes “uncertainty remains high.”
University of Regina economist Jason Childs is a little more assured prices will continue to rise in Canada.
How consumers respond to this momentary inflation “blip” as Canada reopens, he said, “will determine whether or not we get locked into an inflationary spiral.”
So, our reaction to inflation could cause more inflation.
As such, Childs is less optimistic about Saskatoon’s recovery, or any western Canadian city’s recovery.
He said the 67.8-per cent figure broadly represents similar cities east of Ontario.
(He said the pandemic was less of an issue for many smaller population centres that depend on natural resources. Last year the president of the Agricultural Producers of Saskatchewan told Global News the agricultural sector was unaffected by the pandemic.)
Childs told Global News the remainder of the recovery will depend on the hospitality and tourism sectors rebounding, which he said isn’t likely to happen soon.
He said a labour shortage in those sectors, which Fallon also identified as an issue, will further limit gains. And he said the labour shortage could be hard to solve.
“The longer you’re away from the job market and employment, the harder it is for you to transition back into that,” he said.
Overall, he was wary of any predictions.
The pandemic has been a nearly-unprecedented event and the planet has never been more integrated.
Historical examples then may not be as illustrative as policy makers might hope.
“The last time we spent like this – we’ve never spent like this,” Childs said.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
