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Saudi Arabia and Iran’s China-Brokered Détente Doesn’t Upend Mideast Politics



A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper reporting, under the headline “A Pan-Asian Agreement,” the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore their diplomatic ties.
Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

When Iran and Saudi Arabia announced on Friday that they would restore diplomatic ties, ending a seven-year freeze, the real news seemed to be that this apparent breakthrough had been negotiated by China. Most coverage of the deal has highlighted Beijing’s role, adding nearly unanimous expert analysis describing the event as a sign of China’s rising clout in the Middle East, the waning influence of the U.S., and a diplomatic shake-up of historic proportions.

This reaction contains some truth, but it’s both overblown and premature. For one thing, the deal is a transactional agreement, not a wholesale reset. At best, it’s a small first step toward resolving the deep, long-standing tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. The rivals have agreed to reopen embassies and reactivate a lapsed security agreement, which could pave the way to ending their yearslong proxy war in Yemen. The China-brokered talks followed two years of efforts with Iraq and Oman serving as earlier intermediaries, so a lot of work had already been done before Beijing could claim credit for sealing the deal.

In terms of improving stability and security in the Middle East, the deal is good news, regardless of how it came about, especially for countries beset by Saudi-Iranian proxy conflicts in recent years (Yemen, most notably, but also Iraq and Lebanon). The U.S. reaction to the news has been cognizant of that fact. “This is not about China. We support any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think that’s in our interests,” explained National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. Obviously, it is at least a little bit about China, but equally obviously, the U.S. welcomes the potential for a de-escalation in the Yemeni civil war, which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and become what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.


That said, the conflict in Yemen is primarily among Yemenis, and the withdrawal of Saudi and Iranian involvement won’t necessarily bring it to a close. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a deal with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are supported and armed by Iran, and what happened last week could be a prelude to Iran pressuring its Yemeni clients to take that deal. As The Economist has noted, Saudi Arabia might now have the opportunity for a “face-saving exit” from the conflict.

Iran could be looking for an off-ramp as well. The Islamic Republic faces more than enough domestic problems right now and may welcome an excuse to stop pouring resources into a foreign proxy war. On top of the unprecedented civil unrest sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s morality police, the isolated regime has had to contend with an unrelenting currency crisis that continues to batter the country’s already fragile economy, driving up costs of living and fueling further instability. Then there’s the latest crisis: an ongoing apparent terrorism campaign targeting girls’ schools with suspected poison attacks.

At the moment, Iran has limited options for finding international friends, and it needs all the support and leverage it can get. The war in Ukraine opened an opportunity for the regime to further its economic and military ties to Russia through arms sales, reinforcing a significant link in the emerging anti-Western bloc of middle-income countries with conservative, authoritarian governments. Iran’s defusing hostilities with Saudi Arabia and cementing ties with China, its top trade partner, may help to stabilize the regime amid these compounding crises.

From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, détente with Iran offers several benefits, starting with the chance to quit the war in Yemen, which has been expensive and damaging to its reputation. Saudi leadership hopes to put an end to Iran’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities and threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz along with other low-scale acts of economic warfare. Saudi Arabia doesn’t want Iran to become more powerful, but neither does it want to see its rival collapse — just to be less of a thorn in its side. The less attention and money Saudi Arabia needs to devote to countering Iran, the more it can focus on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s massive internal social and economic reform projects. The optics of conducting foreign policy independently of U.S. interests and irritating Washington by cozying up to China are just gravy.

For the U.S., a Saudi-Iranian détente won’t fundamentally undermine its role in the Middle East, but it may complicate it to some degree. While President Biden’s main foreign-policy priorities lie elsewhere, his administration’s approach to the region remains focused on hindering Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and encouraging normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states. The previous administration made that first goal much harder when it abandoned the Obama-era nuclear deal, leaving substantial deficits of both leverage and trust in the already frosty U.S.-Iran relationship.

On the other hand, though Donald Trump may believe that the personal letters he received from Kim Jong-un were his crowning foreign-policy achievement, the 2020 Abraham Accords — in which Israel opened relations with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan — were his administration’s greatest diplomatic feat. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hoped to add Saudi Arabia to that list, but while the two countries have taken some steps toward normalization, an Israeli embassy is unlikely to open in Riyadh anytime soon.

The main barrier to Israeli-Saudi diplomacy at the moment is the fact that Israel’s new government, headed by Netanyahu, is a rogue’s gallery of ultranationalist, right-wing wackos who despise Arabs and aspire to annex the West Bank and snuff out any possibility of Palestinian statehood. That is the opposite of the kind of change Saudi Arabia would need to see to make normalization politically tenable.

Netanyahu (along with the Trump administration) had hoped that the two countries’ mutual enmity toward Iran could help bridge the gap, but Saudi Arabia is much less keen on igniting a full-on war with Iran than Israel is, and many Arab countries are loath to embrace a strategy for containing Iran led by Israel and the U.S. The shadow war Israel has been waging against Iranian military capabilities in Syria, Iraq, and increasingly within Iran itself may have the tacit approval of Washington, but it’s not winning friends in Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.

Last week’s agreement simply underlines the fact that the kingdom is less willing to isolate and antagonize Iran than Israel is, and it’s no wonder the news was met with dismay in Jerusalem. An anonymous Israeli official was quoted as saying that it wouldn’t affect the bid for normalization with the Saudis, but again, it doesn’t really matter one way or the other, as that effort was already going nowhere fast. It will likely remain dormant as long as Netanyahu remains dependent on a radical right-wing coalition — let alone busy fomenting his own domestic political crisis by trying to disempower the judiciary.

As far as China is concerned, its foreign ministry has denied any hidden motives in brokering the agreement, pushing back on the notion that it was asserting any kind of new role in the Mideast or taking advantage of a U.S.-influence vacuum. But Beijing not so subtly sought to call attention to the contrast between its approach to the region and that of the U.S.: “​​We respect the stature of Middle East countries as the masters of this region and oppose geopolitical competition in the Middle East,” the statement said. “China has no intention to and will not seek to fill a so-called vacuum or put up exclusive blocs.” China’s senior-most diplomat, Wang Yi, added that “this world has more than just the Ukraine question, and there are still many issues affecting peace and people’s lives.” It’s easy to interpret Wang’s reference to Ukraine as snark at the U.S. — as if to say, “You may be all-in on Russia and Ukraine right now, but we’re not.”

This messaging is consistent with how China has been recently marketing itself as a superpower ally to countries wary of being influenced by the U.S. With the exception of the Trump administration, which attempted a more ideologically neutral foreign policy, the benefits of being in the U.S.’s sphere of influence these days come with pressure to at least feign interest in human rights and liberal democracy. China’s sales pitch is that it can offer countries access to a market nearly as huge as the U.S. without all of that pesky scrutiny of human-rights records and authoritarianism.

In this framework, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both natural friends of China’s. Indeed, both countries are pursuing membership in the China-dominated BRICS association of emerging economies, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. Through its expanding network of junior partners and client states, China is increasingly assertive in positioning itself as a global political player, whereas until recently, it preferred to focus almost exclusively on economic dominance and access to markets.

The big question remains as to whether Beijing is willing or able to back up its global ambitions with guns and ammo. China still appears reluctant to get tangled up in multilateral security partnerships like the U.S. has in the Middle East, Europe, and the Pacific. While China has become a more prominent arms dealer in the Middle East in the past few years, it still isn’t interested in making military commitments there or trying to take on more responsibility for its security. China has, thus far, held off on sending Russia weapons to use in Ukraine and denies plans to do so — despite growing concerns among U.S. and European leaders. The day may come when China assumes a more active role in securing the Middle East, but it’s doubtful that China’s leaders will seek one comparable to that of the U.S.

Hopefully, this nascent thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran will endure and prompt further steps toward de-escalation — if for no other reason than the possibility that it will make the war in Yemen a little less awful. But their new agreement neither cements Chinese ascendency nor proves the U.S.’s decline. It is, rather, a small indicator of how COVID, Ukraine, and other international crises are edging the global order from the unipolar model of U.S. hegemony toward a more complex, possibly more chaotic, multipolar world.


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Politics Briefing: Political combat over the Liberal government's spending plan has already begun – The Globe and Mail




Even before the federal budget was tabled Tuesday, the political combat over the Liberal government’s spending plan began.

“Unless Justin Trudeau cancels his tax hikes and inflationary deficit spending that have driven up the cost of living to 40-year highs, we will vote against this budget,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre told a news conference on Parliament Hill.


The leader of the Official Opposition made his commitment in the morning ahead of the 4 p.m. ET tabling of the budget.

Asked about the prospect of incentives for green infrastructure and green investments in response to the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, Mr. Poilievre said there’s a need to bring down the cost of low and no-carbon energy.

“That starts with getting the government out of the way and off the backs of our workers and industry,” he said, adding that it takes too long to get mines approved and built.

Mr. Poilievre’s media appearance was announced after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a few comments on the budget as he headed into the week’s cabinet meeting.

He said he looked forward to bring down the budget, with measures to address the cost of living and support Canadians who are having a tough time paying bills.

“We’re also delivering on the results on health care as we move forward with the historic deals with the provinces. And finally, we’re going to be focusing on great jobs for the middle class in a growing and green economy,” he said.

Deputy Ottawa bureau chief Bill Curry reports here that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s 2023 budget will announce plans to save about $7-billion over five years through cuts to federal travel and reduced outsourcing, with a particular focus on using fewer management consultants. Story here.

Also, Mr. Curry, Senior Political Reporter Marieke Walsh, and Mining Reporter Niall McGee report here that the federal budget will announce a clean-tech manufacturing tax credit aimed at encouraging the mining of critical minerals in Canada, a credit that will be worth more than $3-billion over five years.

Please check The Globe and Mail at 4 p.m. ET as details of the budget are released.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.


FORD WARNS AGAINST MAYORAL CANDIDATES WHO WANT TO DEFUND POLICE – Ontario Premier Doug Ford says voters in Toronto’s upcoming mayoral by-election should not support anyone who wants to defund the police. Story here.

MPS TO VISIT TAIWAN – A delegation of MPs will visit Taiwan in April to meet with lawmakers on the self-ruled island claimed by China, a gesture of solidarity with a territory under threat from Beijing as Canada itself grapples with foreign interference from the Chinese government. Story here.

NOMINATION TURMOIL LEADS TO EXIT OF CONSERVATIVE EXECUTIVES – Two Conservative executives in a southwestern Ontario riding have resigned after they say local Tories were poorly treated by the party headquarters in a high-profile nomination race where one candidate was endorsed by former and current leaders Andrew Scheer and Pierre Poilievre. Story here.

QUEBEC POLICE OFFICER KILLED – A Quebec provincial police officer has been killed while trying to arrest a man at a home in the province’s Mauricie region Monday night. Story here.

ISRAELI DIPLOMATS RETURN TO WORK – Israeli diplomats in Canada are set to return to work on Tuesday after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caved to public pressure and announced a delay in his contentious plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary. Story here.

CANADA IN MARKET FOR MILITARY SURVEILLANCE AIRCRAFT – Canada is looking at buying a fleet of military surveillance aircraft from U.S. aerospace giant Boeing without a competition. Story here.

INFRASTRUCTURE BANK MAKES LOAN FOR QUEBEC BIOREFINERY PROJECT – Canada Infrastructure Bank is lending $277-million to developers of a Quebec biorefinery, which is being built to convert non-recyclable waste and cast-off wood into low-carbon fuels. Story here.

EBY PROPOSES PLAN TO DEAL WITH HOMELESSNESS, POVERTY – British Columbia’s NDP government – whose Premier David Eby has said the province will take over Vancouver’s troubled Downtown Eastside – has come up with a preliminary plan for tackling mounting problems with homelessness, poverty, mental health and addiction. Story here.


TODAY IN THE COMMONS – Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, March 28, accessible here.

DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER’S DAY – Chrystia Freeland, also the Finance Minister, held private meetings, attended the weekly cabinet meeting, and held an embargoed news conference as part of the release of the federal budget. Ms. Freeland joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for a budget photo opportunity on Parliament Hill before presenting the budget in the House of Commons.

NEW DIPLOMATS WELCOMED – Diplomats from six countries have presented their credentials to the Governor-General during a Tuesday ceremony at Rideau Hall. They are from Oman, the Marshall Islands, Zimbabwe, the Philippines, Colombia and Mexico. Details here.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Ottawa, attended private meetings and chaired the weekly cabinet meeting. Later in the afternoon, he was scheduled, with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to participate in a photo opportunity at West Block in Parliament Hill, before attending the budget speech in the House of Commons.


Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, in Ottawa, scheduled to hold a late-afternoon news conference on the federal budget in the foyer of the House of Commons.

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, in Ottawa, held a morning news conference on Parliament Hill ahead of the release of the federal budget and was scheduled to hold a news conference on the budget after it was released.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Deputy Leader Jonathan Pedneault, on Parliament Hill, react to the federal budget.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh held private meetings, and was scheduled to speak to the media on Parliament Hill about the federal budget.


On Tuesday’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast, reporter Josh O’Kane discusses concerns around Ticketmaster, which controls a huge proportion of the concert-ticket market. Ticket prices have risen dramatically – with some costing thousands of dollars. Ticketmaster, which controls a huge proportion of the market, has come under fire recently for some of its practices, like dynamic pricing and murky service fees. Mr. O’Kane has covered Ticketmaster for years. The Decibel is here.


POILIEVRE PREFERRED PM – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is, according to Nanos Research, the preferred choice for Prime Minister at 28.7 per cent of respondents surveyed compared to 25.9 per cent for current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Details here.


The Globe and Mail Editorial Board on the dangers for Canada in U.S. President Joe Biden’s new deal: U.S. President Joe Biden made a telling gaffe during his speech to Parliament last week. It came when he wanted to thank Canada for doing its part to help with the migration crisis in the western hemisphere. “So, today I applaud China for stepping up – or, excuse me, I applaud Canada – you can tell what I’m thinking…,” Mr. Biden said. Paging Dr. Freud. Mr. Biden’s speech contained all the usual talking points about the relationship between his country and this one: the world’s longest undefended border; the $1.3-trillion economic link; the shared belief in freedom and democracy; the United States having a “no more reliable ally, no more steady friend,” even if that “doesn’t mean we never disagree. But in his words, both intended and otherwise, it was apparent that while the President was addressing legislators in Ottawa, his thoughts were on the Communist Party in Beijing, and on the threat posed by China’s economic power.”

Marsha Lederman (The Globe and Mail) on how, as a Jewish Canadian, her relationship with Israel is complicated: “If you are a Jewish Canadian who is concerned about social justice, believes in the State of Israel and understands that its existence before the Second World War could have dramatically changed the history of our people, this is a difficult moment. It’s painful to watch the current government, spurred on by its extremist coalition partners, advance its agenda, which includes harmful policies on the treatment of Palestinians and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alarming judicial overhaul. But it is also an excellent moment to speak up. Something some of us have been wary to do, as the writer Andrew Cohen pointed out recently.”

Lloyd Axworthy and Allan Rock (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on a better fix for Roxham Road: Ottawa pundits say that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau scored a political win by securing President Joe Biden’s agreement to renegotiate the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA). Henceforth, it will apply across the entire Canada-U.S. border, and asylum seekers can be turned away at any crossing point. Ottawa has thereby responded adroitly to Quebec Premier François Legault’s complaints about the flow of migrants entering Quebec at the infamous Roxham Road border crossing. But there is something that neither the Prime Minister nor the President mentioned in their announcement: the impact of their decision on the men, women and children fleeing violence and persecution who had hoped to cross the Canadian border after feeling anything but safe in the United States. The vast majority are not in any way a threat to our security.”

John Manley (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on how Canada’s empathy for refugees isn’t limitless, so securing our border is key: Canadians have proven themselves to be open to immigration, demonstrating a willingness to pitch in to assist refugees, be they from African countries, Ukraine, Syria, Vietnam, or any other of the many venues of war, famine and persecution. But Canadian goodwill is not bottomless and could be put at risk if some newcomers are perceived to be queue-jumpers, attempting to gain unfair advantage.”

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.

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US President Biden, Israel PM Netanyahu trade words over protests



Biden tells Israel to ‘walk away’ from judicial reforms, Netanyahu responds saying Israel rejected ‘pressure from abroad’.

United States President Joe Biden has told Israel it “cannot continue” pushing ahead with deeply controversial judicial reforms — now on hold — that have prompted months of unrest — comments that led Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say he does not make decisions based on pressure from abroad.

Biden’s comments on Tuesday came as Netanyahu was being accused by opponents of riding roughshod over Israeli democracy in an attempt to strengthen his own power, leading to paralysing protests and strikes across Israel.

“Like many strong supporters of Israel I’m very concerned. … They cannot continue down this road, and I’ve sort of made that clear,” Biden told reporters during a visit to the state of North Carolina.


“Hopefully the prime minister [Netanyahu] will act in a way that he will try to work out some genuine compromise, but that remains to be seen,” Biden said, adding he was not considering inviting the Israeli leader to the White House, at least “not in the near term”.

Speaking later in Washington, DC, Biden called on Netanyahu’s administration to drop the controversial judiciary law.

“I hope they walk away from it,” he told reporters.

Netanyahu quickly issued a statement in response to Biden, the Reuters news agency reported.

“Israel is a sovereign country which makes its decisions by the will of its people and not based on pressures from abroad, including from the best of friends,” he said.

Netanyahu said his administration was striving to make reforms “via broad consensus”.

“I have known President Biden for over 40 years, and I appreciate his longstanding commitment to Israel,” Netanyahu said.

He said the Israel-US alliance is unbreakable “and always overcomes the occasional disagreements between us”.

On Monday, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog called on Netanyahu and the ruling coalition to halt its judicial changes plan, “for the sake of the unity of the people of Israel, for the sake of responsibility”.

The appeal on Monday by the head of state, who normally does not get involved in politics, underlines the alarm that the proposals have caused and comes after a dramatic night of protests across Israel on Sunday following the sacking of the country’s defence minister.

Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets in cities across Israel in a spontaneous outburst of anger after Netanyahu fired his defence minister for challenging his judicial overhaul plan.

Fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant had been the first senior member of the ruling Likud party to speak out against the reforms, saying the deep divisions were threatening to weaken Israel’s military.


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Budget Politics: Why the federal budget matters so much to Liberal electorate fortunes.



By David Coletto

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table the federal government’s budget, and the stakes could not be higher for the government.

Public assessments of the government’s performance and how they feel about the Prime Minister haven’t been much lower than they are today. Despite this, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in our latest measure of vote intention.


In our most recent national omnibus survey conducted from March 17 to 21, I asked 1,963 adults a few questions to gauge their economic outlook and how they feel about the government’s performance on a series of economic, fiscal, and pocketbook issues. The results suggest a very challenging opinion environment – one that I think the government and the Prime Minister desperately need to shift.

Here’s what I’m seeing:

The overall economic outlook isn’t that bad right now, but it’s not great either. When we ask Canadians to estimate whether the economy will improve, get worse, or stay about the same over the next 12 months, almost half think it is going to get worse but only 15% say it will get a lot worse. About 1 in 4 are optimistic things will improve over that time period.

Government Strengths and Weaknesses?

When we ask Canadians to evaluate the performance of the federal government and the Prime Minister in several areas, the government gets fairly good grades for its handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for representing the country internationally, and for working with the provinces. In each of those, half or more feel the government’s performance is at least acceptable.

It gets what I feel are middling grades for running an ethical government, managing the economy, and responding to the crisis in healthcare. On these, about 4 in 10 feel the government is doing at least an acceptable job.

But on two items in particular, the government is seen as severely underperforming – addressing the rising cost of living and making housing more affordable and accessible. On both, about 1 in 4 think the government is doing ok or better while two-thirds think it’s doing a poor or terrible job.

Even among 2021 Liberal voters, the cost of living and housing are challenging issues for the government. 4 in 10 past Liberal voters say the government isn’t doing even acceptably on those issues.

Part of the problem facing the government right now is its lack of narrative – especially an economic one. Case in point, when we ask Canadians whether they agree or disagree that “the federal government has a clear economic plan to grow the economy” only 23% agree, including 4% who strongly agree. In contrast, 42% disagree, 22% neither agree nor disagree and 13% are unsure.

I wish I had comparable data from previous years or previous governments, but these numbers feel low. If I was advising the Finance Minister, having only 1 in 4 people inclined to think you have a clear plan to grow the economy is a problem, and a serious liability, especially when people are feeling anxious and uncertain about the economy right now.

But the crosstabs provide even more concern. For example, those in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec are no more likely to think the government has a clear plan than those in other regions. And only 51% of Liberal supporters, those who say they would vote Liberal today, think the government has a clear economic plan.

But it gets worse for the Liberals…

When we ask all Canadians which party they feel will do best on several issues, the Liberals only have a slight advantage on one – dealing with climate change and the environment. Even when it comes to “making childcare affordable” – an issue that dominated the 2021 federal budget – the Liberals are basically tied with the NDP and only 7-points ahead of the Conservatives.

On EVERY economic and pocketbook issue, the Conservatives have a clear advantage over the Liberals. And a reminder, this is the same poll that found the Liberals only 2 points behind the Conservatives in voting intention.

The Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by:

  • 13 on managing the economy.
  • 19 on keeping taxes low
  • 15 on keeping interest rates as low as possible
  • 11 on addressing the rising cost of living
  • 7 on creating good-paying jobs
  • 6 on protecting pensions and retirement security

The Upshot

These results underscore both the weakness of the Liberal government’s brand on economic issues and the opportunity it has in this budget to start to move these numbers.

One budget alone won’t fix the problem, but if the government uses it as an opportunity to start talking about pocketbook issues and the economy more, they may be able to reverse some of these numbers.

I think the problem is one of empathy and clarity. The federal government and its senior leaders aren’t connecting with people and empathizing with their day-to-day struggles. And there hasn’t been a clear economic narrative that people recall. With only 23% of Canadians believing the government has a clear economic plan, the budget presents an opportunity for the Liberal government to articulate its vision for economic growth and stability. Demonstrating a coherent strategy to address Canadians’ economic anxieties could help regain public trust.

Yes, the Conservatives have a natural advantage on economic issues. But it hasn’t always been that way. Tomorrow’s budget will either demonstrate a shift in strategy and approach, or it will reinforce what people already think.

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The survey was conducted with 1,963 Canadian adults from March 17 to 21, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


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