A man in Tehran holds a local newspaper reporting, under the headline “A Pan-Asian Agreement,” the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore their diplomatic ties. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
When Iran and Saudi Arabiaannounced on Friday that they would restore diplomatic ties, ending a seven-year freeze, the real news seemed to be that this apparent breakthrough had been negotiated by China. Most coverage of the deal has highlighted Beijing’s role, adding nearly unanimous expert analysis describing the event as a sign of China’s rising clout in the Middle East, the waning influence of the U.S., and a diplomatic shake-up of historic proportions.
This reaction contains some truth, but it’s both overblown and premature. For one thing, the deal is a transactional agreement, not a wholesale reset. At best, it’s a small first step toward resolving the deep, long-standing tensions between Riyadh and Tehran. The rivals have agreed to reopen embassies and reactivate a lapsed security agreement, which could pave the way to ending their yearslong proxy war in Yemen. The China-brokered talks followed two years of efforts with Iraq and Oman serving as earlier intermediaries, so a lot of work had already been done before Beijing could claim credit for sealing the deal.
In terms of improving stability and security in the Middle East, the deal is good news, regardless of how it came about, especially for countries beset by Saudi-Iranian proxy conflicts in recent years (Yemen, most notably, but also Iraq and Lebanon). The U.S. reaction to the news has been cognizant of that fact. “This is not about China. We support any effort to de-escalate tensions in the region. We think that’s in our interests,” explained National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. Obviously, it is at least a little bit about China, but equally obviously, the U.S. welcomes the potential for a de-escalation in the Yemeni civil war, which has cost hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and become what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster.
That said, the conflict in Yemen is primarily among Yemenis, and the withdrawal of Saudi and Iranian involvement won’t necessarily bring it to a close. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for a deal with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who are supported and armed by Iran, and what happened last week could be a prelude to Iran pressuring its Yemeni clients to take that deal. As The Economist has noted, Saudi Arabia might now have the opportunity for a “face-saving exit” from the conflict.
Iran could be looking for an off-ramp as well. The Islamic Republic faces more than enough domestic problems right now and may welcome an excuse to stop pouring resources into a foreign proxy war. On top of the unprecedented civil unrest sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s morality police, the isolated regime has had to contend with an unrelenting currency crisis that continues to batter the country’s already fragile economy, driving up costs of living and fueling further instability. Then there’s the latest crisis: an ongoing apparent terrorism campaign targeting girls’ schools with suspected poison attacks.
At the moment, Iran has limited options for finding international friends, and it needs all the support and leverage it can get. The war in Ukraine opened an opportunity for the regime to further its economic and military ties to Russia through arms sales, reinforcing a significant link in the emerging anti-Western bloc of middle-income countries with conservative, authoritarian governments. Iran’s defusing hostilities with Saudi Arabia and cementing ties with China, its top trade partner, may help to stabilize the regime amid these compounding crises.
From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, détente with Iran offers several benefits, starting with the chance to quit the war in Yemen, which has been expensive and damaging to its reputation. Saudi leadership hopes to put an end to Iran’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities and threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz along with other low-scale acts of economic warfare. Saudi Arabia doesn’t want Iran to become more powerful, but neither does it want to see its rival collapse — just to be less of a thorn in its side. The less attention and money Saudi Arabia needs to devote to countering Iran, the more it can focus on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s massive internal social and economic reform projects. The optics of conducting foreign policy independently of U.S. interests and irritating Washington by cozying up to China are just gravy.
For the U.S., a Saudi-Iranian détente won’t fundamentally undermine its role in the Middle East, but it may complicate it to some degree. While President Biden’s main foreign-policy priorities lie elsewhere, his administration’s approach to the region remains focused on hindering Iran’s development of nuclear weapons and encouraging normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab states. The previous administration made that first goal much harder when it abandoned the Obama-era nuclear deal, leaving substantial deficits of both leverage and trust in the already frosty U.S.-Iran relationship.
On the other hand, though Donald Trump may believe that the personal letters he received from Kim Jong-un were his crowning foreign-policy achievement, the 2020 Abraham Accords — in which Israel opened relations with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan — were his administration’s greatest diplomatic feat. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hoped to add Saudi Arabia to that list, but while the two countries have taken some steps toward normalization, an Israeli embassy is unlikely to open in Riyadh anytime soon.
The main barrier to Israeli-Saudi diplomacy at the moment is the fact that Israel’s new government, headed by Netanyahu, is a rogue’s gallery of ultranationalist, right-wing wackos who despise Arabs and aspire to annex the West Bank and snuff out any possibility of Palestinian statehood. That is the opposite of the kind of change Saudi Arabia would need to see to make normalization politically tenable.
Netanyahu (along with the Trump administration) had hoped that the two countries’ mutual enmity toward Iran could help bridge the gap, but Saudi Arabia is much less keen on igniting a full-on war with Iran than Israel is, and many Arab countries are loath to embrace a strategy for containing Iran led by Israel and the U.S. The shadow war Israel has been waging against Iranian military capabilities in Syria, Iraq, and increasingly within Iran itself may have the tacit approval of Washington, but it’s not winning friends in Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
Last week’s agreement simply underlines the fact that the kingdom is less willing to isolate and antagonize Iran than Israel is, and it’s no wonder the news was met with dismay in Jerusalem. An anonymous Israeli official was quoted as saying that it wouldn’t affect the bid for normalization with the Saudis, but again, it doesn’t really matter one way or the other, as that effort was already going nowhere fast. It will likely remain dormant as long as Netanyahu remains dependent on a radical right-wing coalition — let alone busy fomenting his own domestic political crisis by trying to disempower the judiciary.
As far as China is concerned, its foreign ministry has denied any hidden motives in brokering the agreement, pushing back on the notion that it was asserting any kind of new role in the Mideast or taking advantage of a U.S.-influence vacuum. But Beijing not so subtly sought to call attention to the contrast between its approach to the region and that of the U.S.: “We respect the stature of Middle East countries as the masters of this region and oppose geopolitical competition in the Middle East,” the statement said. “China has no intention to and will not seek to fill a so-called vacuum or put up exclusive blocs.” China’s senior-most diplomat, Wang Yi, added that “this world has more than just the Ukraine question, and there are still many issues affecting peace and people’s lives.” It’s easy to interpret Wang’s reference to Ukraine as snark at the U.S. — as if to say, “You may be all-in on Russia and Ukraine right now, but we’re not.”
This messaging is consistent with how China has been recently marketing itself as a superpower ally to countries wary of being influenced by the U.S. With the exception of the Trump administration, which attempted a more ideologically neutral foreign policy, the benefits of being in the U.S.’s sphere of influence these days come with pressure to at least feign interest in human rights and liberal democracy. China’s sales pitch is that it can offer countries access to a market nearly as huge as the U.S. without all of that pesky scrutiny of human-rights records and authoritarianism.
In this framework, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both natural friends of China’s. Indeed, both countries are pursuing membership in the China-dominated BRICS association of emerging economies, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. Through its expanding network of junior partners and client states, China is increasingly assertive in positioning itself as a global political player, whereas until recently, it preferred to focus almost exclusively on economic dominance and access to markets.
The big question remains as to whether Beijing is willing or able to back up its global ambitions with guns and ammo. China still appears reluctant to get tangled up in multilateral security partnerships like the U.S. has in the Middle East, Europe, and the Pacific. While China has become a more prominent arms dealer in the Middle East in the past few years, it still isn’t interested in making military commitments there or trying to take on more responsibility for its security. China has, thus far, held off on sending Russia weapons to use in Ukraine and denies plans to do so — despite growing concerns among U.S. and European leaders. The day may come when China assumes a more active role in securing the Middle East, but it’s doubtful that China’s leaders will seek one comparable to that of the U.S.
Hopefully, this nascent thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran will endure and prompt further steps toward de-escalation — if for no other reason than the possibility that it will make the war in Yemen a little less awful. But their new agreement neither cements Chinese ascendency nor proves the U.S.’s decline. It is, rather, a small indicator of how COVID, Ukraine, and other international crises are edging the global order from the unipolar model of U.S. hegemony toward a more complex, possibly more chaotic, multipolar world.
OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.
The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.
The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.
It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.
Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.
A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.
During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.
They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.
“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.
Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”
Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.
These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”
These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.
Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.
The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”
It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.
“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”
This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.
“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”
However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.
Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.
In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.
It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.
In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.
Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.
Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.
The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.
Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.
The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.
A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.
Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.
“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.
The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.
“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”
Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.
“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.
Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.
His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.
Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.
It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.
“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.
When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”
In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.
Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.
“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.
The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.
Singh called it a “big victory.”
“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.
“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”
New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.
Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.
The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
