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Saudi Arabia's economy returns to growth after pandemic slump – Financial Post

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DUBAI — Saudi Arabia’s economy grew for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic in the second quarter fueled by a 10.1% growth in the non-oil sector, according to flash government estimates on Monday.

The data, which showed the economy growing 1.5% from a year ago, prompted economists to expect faster expansion in the second half of the year with the oil sector benefiting from higher output.

“The quarterly GDP growth points to a further pick-up in activity, with the oil sector benefiting from higher production,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

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The kingdom’s economy contracted last year due to the twin shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and lower oil prices.

Seasonally-adjusted real gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the second quarter from the first quarter, the General Authority for Statistics in Saudi Arabia said in a statement.

The International Monetary Fund expects Saudi economy to grow by 2.4% this year. James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics, said it could grow twice as fast with further easing of the pandemic curbs and oil producers’ agreement to boost output.

“Overall, we have penciled in real GDP growth of 4.8% this year and 6.3% year-on-year in 2022,” Swanston said.

The oil sector which accounts for about 25% of the economic output expected to exceed $700 billion this year, contracted 7% year-on-year, but grew seasonally-adjusted 2.5% quarter-on-quarter.

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OPEC+ ministers agreed last month to boost oil supply from August to cool prices which have climbed to 2-1/2 year highs as the global economy recovers from the pandemic.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector grew seasonally-adjusted 1.3% quarter-on-quarter.

The kingdom is trying to boost the non-oil sector through a multi-trillion dollar spending push that will require state companies to cut the dividends they pay the government to boost capital spending.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, architect of the Saudi Vision 2030 program, has said the state-backed Public Investment Fund (PIF) will pump at least 150 billion riyals ($40 billion) into the local economy each year through 2025. (Reporting by Saeed Azhar; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Tomasz Janowski)

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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