Scotiabank expects credit losses to worsen with over $200B in mortgages coming up for renewal by 2026 | Canada News Media
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Scotiabank expects credit losses to worsen with over $200B in mortgages coming up for renewal by 2026

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Scotiabank saw a rise in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter and said it’s bracing for further credit losses due to higher-for-longer interest rates and a wave of upcoming mortgage renewals.

The bank saw the percentage of its mortgage portfolio that is now 90+ days delinquent rise to 0.16%, up from 0.14% in the third quarter and just 0.09% a year ago.

Across all of its credit portfolios, the delinquency rate has risen to 0.25%, up from 0.15% in 2022.

“Delinquencies continue to trend up across all products in Canada,” noted Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas. “Quarter-over-quarter, we saw a deterioration in HELOCs and auto, increasing 9 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively.”

As a result, the bank increased its provision for credit losses (PCLs), which are funds financial institutions set aside to cover any loan losses that may arise.

The bank set aside $1.3 billion in PCLs in the quarter, up $437 million or 53% from the last quarter.

“Given the macroeconomic backdrop of higher unemployment levels, higher-for-longer interest rates and upcoming renewals of fixed-rate mortgages in Canada, we have focused on strengthening the balance sheet,” said Thomas. “It is important to note that while delinquencies are still within historical norms, consumer health in Canada continues to weaken, and we expect households may continue to experience financial pressure through 2024 with the build in [PCLs] addressing this.”

He said that includes “looking forward in terms of how fixed-rate mortgage customers are going to start to reprice in the Canadian environment over the next year or two years.”

Scotiabank confirmed that over $200 billion worth of its mortgage portfolio will be coming up for renewal by 2026.

“We’re very conscious of the fact that in 2024 we have about 10% of our fixed-rate portfolios repricing,” Thomas said. “And that moves into 20% in 2025 and another 20% in 2026.”

As part of its forecasting for future credit losses, the bank assumed the unemployment rate rising to between 7% and 8% over the next 12 months. The unemployment rate is currently at 5.7%, up from 5% where it started the year.

“[The] unemployment rate has a significant impact on our models, but I would also look at the interest rate impact and that’s the result of higher-for-longer, particularly on some of the retail models,” Thomas added.

Variable-rate customers “feeling the pinch”

Scotiabank confirmed it has been monitoring its variable-rate mortgage portfolio “very closely” in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes.

Unlike some of the other big banks, Scotiabank is the largest mortgage lender that offers adjustable-rate variable mortgages, which means its borrowers see their monthly payments increase every the Bank of Canada’s overnight target rate rises.

It found that its variable-rate clients had been cutting back on discretionary spending (-11% year-over-year) to a greater extent compared to its fixed-rate clients (-5%).

“What we’re seeing is those customers are feeling the pinch now and they’re making trade-offs,” said Thomas.

He also noted that the clients generally still have a savings buffer that is so far helping them cope with higher monthly payments.

“Despite the fact that we’ve seen…savings buffers decreasing, there’s still a two-times payment buffer on the variable-rate mortgage portfolio today,” he added.

Scotiabank earnings highlights

Q4 net income: $1.39 billion (-33% Y/Y)
Earnings per share: $1.02

Q4 2022 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Residential mortgage portfolio $302B $294B $290B
Percentage of mortgage portfolio uninsured 72% 74% 74%
Avg. loan-to-value (LTV) of portfolio 49% 47% 49%
Portfolio mix: percentage with variable rates 37% 34% 33%
90+ days past due 0.09% 0.14% 0.16%
Mortgage portfolio gross impaired loans 0.26% 0.45% 0.45%
Canadian banking net interest margin (NIM) 2.26% 2.35% 2.47%
Total provisions for credit losses $529M $819M $1.26B
Source: Scotiabank Q4 Investor Presentation

Conference Call

  • “Net interest margin was up 21 bps to 2.47% on “higher loan margins and favourable changes in business mix,” the bank said.
  • The bank took actions to strengthen its capital position to meet Thomson’s January 2023 commitment to a CET1 ratio of greater than 12%, up from 11.5% at the same time last year.
  • Scotiabank saw its deposits across the bank increase 9% year-over-year, bringing the loan-to-deposit ratio to 110% from 116%.
  • “Our current balance sheet strength, structural interest rate positioning and deliberate approach to loan growth reflect our cautious near-term outlook,” said Thomson.
  • The bank saw a 4% decline in its residential mortgage business, although Scotia has been clear in previous earnings calls that it wanted to intentionally slow its mortgage book and put a greater emphasis on growing deposits to lower its reliance on wholesale funding from larger investors.
    • As a result, it says it’s seen mortgage profitability rise “significantly” in the quarter as it shifts from “just a monoline mortgage opportunity” to an increased emphasis on product cross-selling.

Source: Q4 Conference Call


Featured image by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Note: Transcripts are provided as-is from the companies and/or third-party sources, and their accuracy cannot be 100% assured.

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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