As we head towards the end of the year, a new report from Scotiabank is highlighting key investment themes for 2023.
In a report to investors on Monday, a team of Scotiabank strategists predicted limited gains from current levels in equity markets during the new year. However, the strategists said longer-term opportunities are likely to emerge in the first half of the year and may provide an appealing entry point for investors.
“Investors’ mindset should thus transition from seeing the glass as half-empty to seeing it as half-full, as we will eventually look through the EPS [earnings per share] valley,” the report said.
Some of the key themes identified in the report included shifting concerns from inflation to recession, another prospective turn in monetary policy and potential indications of an ideal equity market entry point.
INFLATION TO RECESSION
Inflation is projected to ease in 2023; however, the report said this will likely be replaced by recessionary concerns.
“All leading indicators we track…continue to point, at best, toward a period of economic stagnation, but more likely toward a phase of contraction,” the report said.
Inflation may remain above the targets set by central banks in the new year, but it should come down from peak levels due to stabilizing supply chains and a decline in commodity prices, the report said.
It also said the costs associated with moving goods by truck and ship have “dropped abruptly,” and commodity costs are now below peak levels.
Additionally, the report noted that all U.S. recessions, since 1970, have seen receding inflation figures.
MONETARY POLICY PIVOT
Monetary policy conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve could take another sharp turn, the report said. The Fed’s interest rate is expected to hit five per cent early in 2023 before it adopts a “wait-and-see approach.”
The Fed and other central banks around the world conducted a significant tightening campaign in 2022, the report said, in a series of moves that drove up the cost of credit and resulted in banks restricting its availability.
“Hence, what could start as a pause in the tightening phase is likely to morph into easing in late 2023 as macro data deteriorate further,” the report said.
Previous transition phases between monetary tightening and easing have been “rapid,” the report said. Dating back to the 1960s, the strategists estimated it can take around five months on average for the Fed to pivot on its monetary policy approach.
“An easing cycle starting late next year appears very likely if macro data keep worsening,” the strategist said.
The current bounce in equity markets is unlikely to last, according to the report, which suggested investors “resist FOMO (fear of missing out) once again.”
Despite the pessimism held by the strategists on current market gains, a few things might signal an appropriate entry point for investors into equity markets.
Firstly, the report identified a pause in rate hikes from the Fed as something that will need to be seen for an entry point to emerge, not simply a slowing of the pace of rate increases.
Secondly, the strategists said a “reset” in earnings expectations would need to take place.
“Bottom-up EPS [earnings per share] forecasts are still calling for TSX and S&P 500 earnings to expand next year (about four per cent in both markets), which is unlikely to happen,” the report said.
Next, a bottoming in leading economic indicators like the yield curve would need to happen, according to the report, which notes the majority of previous market bottoms occurred after the yield curve inversion was finished.
A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term bonds have higher yields than longer-term bonds, which is the opposite of the typical pattern and is a potential signal for an upcoming recession.
Lastly, the strategists identified that signs of capitulation will be need to be seen before an entry point can be identified.
“Investor sentiment surveys are accordingly depressed, but equity allocation remains too high and cash allocation too low to call a bottom,” the report said.
Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Alphabet, Tesla, Shopify, Amazon and Palo Alto
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – February 2, 2023 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Alphabet GOOGL, Tesla TSLA, Shopify SHOP, Amazon AMZN and Palo Alto Networks PANW.
Which of These Stocks Has Been the Best Buy, Post-Split?
Stock splits have been a regular occurrence in the market over the last several years, with many companies aiming to boost liquidity within shares and knock down barriers for potential investors.
Of course, it’s important to remember that a split doesn’t directly impact a company’s financial standing or performance.
In 2022, several companies performed splits, including Alphabet, Tesla, Shopify, Amazon and Palo Alto Networks. Below is a chart illustrating the performance of all five stocks over the last year, with the S&P 500 blended in as a benchmark.
As we can see, PANW shares have been the best performers over the last year, the only to outperform the general market.
However, which has turned in a better performance post-split? Let’s take a closer look.
We’re all familiar with Tesla, which has revolutionized the EV (electric vehicle) industry. It’s been one of the best-performing stocks over the last decade, quickly becoming a favorite among investors.
Earlier in June of 2022, the mega-popular EV manufacturer announced that its board approved a three-for-one stock split; shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis on August 25th, 2022.
Since the split, Tesla shares have lost roughly 40% in value, widely underperforming relative to the S&P 500.
Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks offers network security solutions to enterprises, service providers, and government entities worldwide.
PANW’s three-for-one stock split in mid-September seemingly flew under the radar. The company’s shares started trading on a split-adjusted basis on September 14th, 2022.
Following the split, PANW shares have struggled to gain traction, down roughly 15% compared to the S&P 500’s 3.3% gain.
Shopify provides a multi-tenant, cloud-based, multi-channel e-commerce platform for small and medium-sized businesses.
SHOP shares started trading on a split-adjusted basis on June 29th, 2022; the company performed a 10-for-1 split.
Impressively, Shopify shares have soared for a 50% gain since the split, crushing the general market’s performance.
Alphabet has evolved from primarily being a search engine into a company with operations in cloud computing, ad-based video and music streaming, autonomous vehicles, and more.
Last February, the tech titan announced a 20-for-1 split, and investors cheered on the news – GOOGL shares climbed 7% the day following the announcement. Shares started trading on a split-adjusted basis on July 18th, 2022.
Alphabet shares have sailed through challenging waters since the split, down 10% and lagging behind the S&P 500.
Amazon has evolved into an e-commerce giant with global operations. The company also enjoys a dominant position within the cloud computing space with its Amazon Web Services (AWS) operations.
AMZN’s 20-for-1 split was a bit of a surprise, as it was the company’s first split since 1999. Shares started trading on a split-adjusted basis on June 6th, 2022.
Following the split, Amazon shares have lost roughly 18% in value, well off the general market’s performance.
Stock splits are typically exciting announcements that investors can receive, with companies aiming to boost liquidity within shares.
Interestingly enough, only Shopify shares reside in the green post-split of the five listed.
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$13 million investment in Campbellford Memorial Hospital
The Campbellford Memorial Hospital will be receiving a $13 million investment from the Ontario Government to address infrastructure concerns.
The announcement was made at the hospital by Northumberland—Peterborough South MPP David Piccini.
The $13 million is broken down as follows:
- $9,639,900 will be going to CMH as one-time capital funding to address the HVAC and generator
- $1,874,929 for reimbursement of CMH’s COVID-19-related capital expenses
- $771,797 in COVID-19 incremental operating funding
- up to $600,000 in one-time funding to support the hospital’s in-year financial and operating pressures
- $163,600 in pandemic prevention and containment funding
- $81,132 through the Health Infrastructure Renewal Fund
- $46,884 in health human resources funding.
Interim President and CEO Eric Hanna welcomed the news, saying much needs to be done about the HVAC and generator.
At the announcement, Hanna spoke of the issues with the generator.
“I’ve got the wee little generator up at the lake and then I’m thinking well, everything should be going well at the hospital,” Hanna told the audience in attendance.
“You get a call from the person in charge who says, ‘Guess what Eric? Generator didn’t start. Oh, so what does that mean? There’s no power in the hospital.’ That’s happened a couple of times in the past year and the generator is over 30 years old.”
Hanna says the solution was not as easy as replacing the generator.
“You can go buy the generator and that may be about a million dollars. But then when we found out afterwards, we came to hook up the new generator to the electrical distribution system and said it won’t work with that because your electrical distribution system is 1956. You can’t plug this generator into that. So now we’re putting close to $5 million into a whole electrical distribution system so the generator will work. It’s part of that ongoing thing and that’s why these costs continue to go up.”
The HVAC system was also something addressed by Hanna.
“It’s a contract close to $7 million to replace that. This wing, for example. There’s no fresh air in this wing. It hasn’t worked in here for 15 years. So now this is administrative areas and the concern was that in some of the patient carriers, it wasn’t working either. So – having those discussions with David (Piccini) and saying what we have to do to correct this.”
Chile’s Enap Set to Slash Debt Burden That Weighed on Investment
(Bloomberg) — Enap, Chile’s state oil and gas company, plans to use near-record earnings to slash its debt burden, while increasing investment in its refineries and in exploration and production.
The company aims to reduce its debt load to about $3 billion “medium term” from the current $4.3 billion, Chief Executive Officer Julio Friedmann said in an interview. Plans include a bond sale in the first half of this year to refinance some securities.
The improved financial position — with 2022 profit surging to $575 million — comes after Enap’s oil and gas operations in Egypt, Ecuador and Argentina got a boost from high crude prices, while healthy international refining margins benefited plants in Chile. Those trends are expected to extend into this year and next, enabling the company to pre-pay some short-term obligations. About half of the current debt burden matures in the next three years.
“We are going to issue bonds,” the MIT-trained executive said Wednesday from the Aconcagua refinery in central Chile. “We are closely evaluating the local and international markets.”
At the same time, Friedmann, who took the reins at Enap in November, plans to increase capital expenditure to about $700 million this year from $550 million last year.
The increase comes after underinvestment in the past few years because of Covid restrictions and the heavy debt load. Spending will focus on making treatment processes cleaner and upgrading infrastructure, as well as a more aggressive approach to increasing gas reserves in the far south of the country, he said.
Enap plans to expand in both liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas markets in Chile, focusing on the wholesale business and eventually selling directly to large-scale consumers such as mines. Organizational changes to enable the expansion will be announced soon. There are no plans to enter the final distribution business, Friedmann said. The company wants to supply more gas to southern cities as a way of replacing dirtier fuels such as wood and diesel.
Enap and its partners are also preparing pipelines and a refinery near Concepcion to start receiving crude from Argentina’s Neuquen basin sometime this year in an arrangement that could supply as much as 30% of its needs.
While there’s plenty of potential do collaborate more with energy-rich Argentina, particularly in the Magallanes area, that would require greater long-term visibility on supplies from the neighboring country, Friedmann said.
He sees a role for Enap in the development of green hydrogen in Chile. It’s in talks with three companies to enable its facilities in Magallanes to be used to receive all the wind turbines, electrolyzers and other equipment that will be needed to make the clean fuel. Enap is also evaluating its own small pilot plants and will consider whether to take up options to enter other green hydrogen projects as an equity partner.
While the company will maintain its focus on meeting rising demand for traditional fuels, it anticipates new regulation that will require lower emissions. It’s also looking closely at clean-fuel options for aviation, Friedmann said.
(Adds clean fuel plans in last paragraph. I previous version corrected spelling of CEO’s surname.)
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