Before the coronavirus shut down sports, I spent a lot of time most days looking at numbers.
And now, I spend a lot of time most days looking at numbers.
Instead of points per possession, or shot attempts, or expected goals, it’s COVID-19 cases, and percentage daily increases, and testing rates.
There are lessons from the analysis of sports statistics that can be applied to the much more important data that is now impacting how we live our everyday lives, bunkered away and either lonely or constantly bumping into family members.
But the biggest lesson, so far, is this: this data stinks. If a professional sports league was providing the kind of scattered, incomplete information that our governments are releasing on the coronavirus pandemic, we would ridicule them. And we have. (Hello, National Hockey League).
But when this data is meant to inform the public about the spread of an illness, and whether the measures we are taking have been effective, there is something more than ridicule that should be offered. We should be mad. We deserve better from our governments.
The single coronavirus statistic that is most cited these days is the number of cases in a particular place. Everywhere you turn, there are references to the steady global rise, or the sharp jumps in places like New York and Spain, and before that, China and Italy. In Canada there has also been a steep upward trajectory, which is distressing given all the talk about flattening the curve and the social-distancing measures that a significant number of citizens have undertaken.
Are Ontarians doing a bang-up job of containing this thing, or do we simply not have the proper data?
But that statistic, on its own, doesn’t say much. Rates of coronavirus testing vary wildly from province to province, which naturally affects the number of positive cases discovered. As of Wednesday morning, Ontario appeared to be having moderate success at restraining the spread of the virus, with just under 2,000 cases, for a rate of about 13 per 100,000 residents. That rate is lower than the rate in six other provinces. But again, as of Wednesday morning, Ontario had also run far fewer tests on a per-capita basis. Quebec had completed 16,000 more tests, even though Ontario has six million more residents. Alberta had completed 94 per cent as many tests as Ontario, despite having less than a third of its population.
So, are Ontarians doing a bang-up job of containing this thing, or do we simply not have the proper data? It’s like comparing the goals scored by two hockey teams, when one has played far more games. Further clouding the picture is that Quebec, with double the confirmed cases of Ontario, includes “presumed” cases as positive results. Thus, there’s no standard agreement on what constitutes a goal.
On cue, Ontario’s updated Wednesday numbers revealed a jump of more than 400 cases, the largest daily increase so far, but on a day when more than double the amount of tests were resolved than a day earlier. More tests, more positives. More games, more goals.
And while the numbers of confirmed cases are what lead all of the daily media briefings, experts have said for some time that it is hospitalized cases that are most concerning.
A traveller stands in the International arrivals hall at Toronto’s Pearson Airport, on Friday, March 27, 2020. Six planes carrying Canadians stranded in Africa and Europe are to touch down today in the government’s effort to repatriate travellers stranded by COVID-19.
Chris Young /
THE CANADIAN PRESS
It’s those numbers that demonstrate whether the health-care system is on pace to be overwhelmed, as has happened in places like Italy, which causes a commensurate jump in the death rate. In the sports context, hospitalization or intensive-care rates would be the advanced stats, the underlying numbers that give a more accurate picture of performance than the tops-of-the-waves stuff. But the information our governments provide on these details is scattershot and incomplete at best. It has to be chased down separately, although some provinces appear to be finally moving in the direction of providing it as part of their daily releases.
It is worth noting here that health care is a provincial responsibility, and so there are obstacles in the way to providing uniform, Canada-wide information. But isn’t a global pandemic the time for Ottawa to shake itself out of its normal way of doing business? The time for it to ensure that the coronavirus information released to the public is comprehensive and accurate? We shouldn’t have to be trying to infer what the numbers from Quebec and Ontario and Alberta mean. We should know, because someone in a position to know is telling us.
The information our governments provide on these details is scattershot and incomplete at best
It’s not even clear that federal officials should be trying to describe coronavirus spread in national terms. In recent days, the Canada-wide picture has been one of consistent daily jumps, but these are driven by big increases in Quebec and Ontario. The situation in British Columbia and the Prairies appears — for now, at least — to be one of significant progress in terms of limiting the spread of the disease, and a sign that the social-distancing measures are having the desired impact. You’d think that’s a message that Ottawa’s political and medical leaders would want to drive home, instead of simply reporting the steady national increases.
Of course, much about this pandemic has been changing rapidly, and I understand that people in high places have been forced to figure this stuff out on the move. But we are being told that our new reality of isolation and lockdown could carry on for weeks and months.
If our governments want the public to understand why all this is happening, it needs to provide the public with better information. And it needs to do that now.
Human Resources Officers must be very busy these days what with the general turnover of employees in our retail and business sectors. It is hard enough to find skilled people let alone potential employees willing to be trained. Then after the training, a few weeks go by then they come to you and ask for a raise. You refuse as there simply is no excess money in the budget and away they fly to wherever they come from, trained but not willing to put in the time to achieve that wanted raise.
I have had potentials come in and we give them a test to see if they do indeed know how to weld, polish or work with wood. 2-10 we hire, and one of those is gone in a week or two. Ask that they want overtime, and their laughter leaving the building is loud and unsettling. Housing starts are doing well but way behind because those trades needed to finish a project simply don’t come to the site, with delay after delay. Some people’s attitudes are just too funny. A recent graduate from a Ivy League university came in for an interview. The position was mid-management potential, but when we told them a three month period was needed and then they would make the big bucks they disappeared as fast as they arrived.
Government agencies are really no help, sending us people unsuited or unwilling to carry out the jobs we offer. Handing money over to staffing firms whose referrals are weak and ineffectual. Perhaps with the Fall and Winter upon us, these folks will have to find work and stop playing on the golf course or cottaging away. Tried to hire new arrivals in Canada but it is truly difficult to find someone who has a real identity card and is approved to live and work here. Who do we hire? Several years ago my father’s firm was rocking and rolling with all sorts of work. It was a summer day when the immigration officers arrived and 30+ employees hit the bricks almost immediately. The investigation that followed had threats of fines thrown at us by the officials. Good thing we kept excellent records, photos and digital copies. We had to prove the illegal documents given to us were as good as the real McCoy.
Restauranteurs, builders, manufacturers, finishers, trades-based firms, and warehousing are all suspect in hiring illegals, yet that becomes secondary as Toronto increases its minimum wage again bringing our payroll up another $120,000. Survival in Canada’s financial and business sectors is questionable for many. Good luck Chuck!. at least your carbon tax refund check should be arriving soon.
NORMAN WELLS, N.W.T. – Imperial Oil says it will temporarily reduce its fuel prices in a Northwest Territories community that has seen costs skyrocket due to low water on the Mackenzie River forcing the cancellation of the summer barge resupply season.
Imperial says in a Facebook post it will cut the air transportation portion that’s included in its wholesale price in Norman Wells for diesel fuel, or heating oil, from $3.38 per litre to $1.69 per litre, starting Tuesday.
The air transportation increase, it further states, will be implemented over a longer period.
It says Imperial is closely monitoring how much fuel needs to be airlifted to the Norman Wells area to prevent runouts until the winter road season begins and supplies can be replenished.
Gasoline and heating fuel prices approached $5 a litre at the start of this month.
Norman Wells’ town council declared a local emergency on humanitarian grounds last week as some of its 700 residents said they were facing monthly fuel bills coming to more than $5,000.
“The wholesale price increase that Imperial has applied is strictly to cover the air transportation costs. There is no Imperial profit margin included on the wholesale price. Imperial does not set prices at the retail level,” Imperial’s statement on Monday said.
The statement further said Imperial is working closely with the Northwest Territories government on ways to help residents in the near term.
“Imperial Oil’s decision to lower the price of home heating fuel offers immediate relief to residents facing financial pressures. This step reflects a swift response by Imperial Oil to discussions with the GNWT and will help ease short-term financial burdens on residents,” Caroline Wawzonek, Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance and Infrastructure, said in a news release Monday.
Wawzonek also noted the Territories government has supported the community with implementation of a fund supporting businesses and communities impacted by barge cancellations. She said there have also been increases to the Senior Home Heating Subsidy in Norman Wells, and continued support for heating costs for eligible Income Assistance recipients.
Additionally, she said the government has donated $150,000 to the Norman Wells food bank.
In its declaration of a state of emergency, the town said the mayor and council recognized the recent hike in fuel prices has strained household budgets, raised transportation costs, and affected local businesses.
It added that for the next three months, water and sewer service fees will be waived for all residents and businesses.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
TORONTO – A new report says many Canadian business leaders are worried about economic uncertainties related to the looming U.S. election.
The survey by KPMG in Canada of 735 small- and medium-sized businesses says 87 per cent fear the Canadian economy could become “collateral damage” from American protectionist policies that lead to less favourable trade deals and increased tariffs
It says that due to those concerns, 85 per cent of business leaders in Canada polled are reviewing their business strategies to prepare for a change in leadership.
The concerns are primarily being felt by larger Canadian companies and sectors that are highly integrated with the U.S. economy, such as manufacturing, automotive, transportation and warehousing, energy and natural resources, as well as technology, media and telecommunications.
Shaira Nanji, a KPMG Law partner in its tax practice, says the prospect of further changes to economic and trade policies in the U.S. means some Canadian firms will need to look for ways to mitigate added costs and take advantage of potential trade relief provisions to remain competitive.
Both presidential candidates have campaigned on protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canadian trade, and whoever takes the White House will be in charge during the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
